UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Vallejos takes place this Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.  The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 5:00 PM EST on Paramount+, followed by the Main Card at 8:00 PM on Paramount+.  This is an action-packed fight as the old guard in Josh Emmett looks to knock off the rising prospect Kevin Vallejos.  Both of these men are capable of KOing their opponent at any time. As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Vallejos

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos

$6600/$9600

-

Stackability: Low

400/ -549

700.0/-163.

A high-level main event in the 145lb division. Emmett has a ton of power, but he's aging and his size and speed are really starting to become an issue for him. Vallejos is likely the better wrestler, has better cardio, and better defense but this is a big step up in competition for him. I expect this to go to decision, and if you want to beat Josh Emmett you have to put up a lot of volume so this makes for a good fight to target on DK. At these odds I would take a shot on Emmett, but Vallejos is the right favorite and more likely to win.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Bia Mesquita

9500

Montse Rendon

Somewhat-Safe

-649 

-200. 

She has a crazy submission skill set and is facing a fighter with zero finishing ability. I like her to get takedowns and finish this fight early.

Jose Delgado

9300

Andre Fili

Somewhat-Safe

-333 

-138. 

Delgado has a lot of power, especially in Round 1, but he has a tough test in Fili. If this gets into the later rounds it will be close but early on Delgado should be able to dominate the fight.

Myktybek Orolbai

9100

Chris Curtis

Somewhat-Safe

-333 

175.0 

Orolbai is going to be the bigger fighter, and at his best he has power and can chain wrestle. He is one of the few high-priced fighters that has shown in a decision victory he can still score well. 

Vitor Petrino

9000

Steven Asplund

Moderate

-250 

-110. 

Vitor has way more speed and better boxing than Asplund, but he has to stay active or Asplund is going to run away with this fight. Asplund forces his opponents into dog fights which is always great on DK as it leads to more points for both fighters. 

Hecher Sosa

8900

Luan Lacerda

Moderate

-250

240

Sosa can wrestle a little bit and has some striking. This should be a close fight but I think the way Sosa could win this fight leads to scoring better on DK than Lacerda will.




 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Gillian Robertson

8600

Amanda Lemos

Moderate

-188 

200.0 

Robertson is going to try to wrestle, and even if she doesn't get the submission, she should get 8+ minutes of control time if she is going to win this fight.

Elijah Smith

8500

SuYoung You

Moderate

-200 

240.0 

Smith has better wrestling and better power than You. I don't love these road to the UFC fighters, and although Smith is still very green, I think he should be able to use his strength early on to get the win.

Brad Tavares

8300

Eryk Anders

Somewhat-Risky

-138 

275.0 

Anders already said that he is hanging up the glove on Saturday night so while Tavares is giving up some raw athleticism I think he is more invested into fighting at this point. Tavares was a gatekeeper to the top 15 for a long time, and his well-rounded MMA game should be enough to get the win.

Piera Rodriguez

8400

Sam Hughes

Somewhat-Risky

-158

500

This is a rematch, and while I actually think Hughes is more likely to win the fight, Rodriguez skillset works better on DraftKings. Rodriguez needs takedowns to win, and in their first matchup she was able to get 5 of them. If Hughes wins this fight she probably doesn't break 80pts, but in Rodriguez wins with her wrestling she could score close to 100.

Amanda Lemos

7600

Gillian Robertson

Somewhat-Risky

150 

400.0 

Lemos is an underdog who has a clear advantage striking, so while Robertson is the rightful favorite, Lemos does have a punchers chance. If Lemos keeps this standing for the majority of the fight she could win, but her biggest issue is being controlled. She has the power to end the fight early if she lands which is very rate in the women’s division.

Sam Hughes

7800

Piera Rodriguez

Somewhat-Risky

120

500

Hughes can win this fight, but she doesn't score great on DK even in her wins. She is always priced as an underdog so there is a way for her to get on the optimal lineup without a massive score, especially if a lot of the other underdogs lose this week. Her cardio and striking should at least give her a shot in round 3.

Bruno Silva

7500

Charles Johnson

Risky

150 

275.0 

There are a lot of low priced fighters so I am adding in Silva here. Silva is a well rounded fighter who can strike and wrestle a little bit, and normally I would lean to Johnson but he is just a month removed from getting dropped twice and KO'd in a fight. The turn around for Johnson is too quick so I'm picking Silva to get it done.



 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Ion Cutelaba

7400

Oumar Sy

Somewhat-Risky

175 

350.0 

Cutelaba used to fight with recklessness which always made him a wild card but he has been more reserved of late. One thing that you can always count on Cutelaba for is to throw with a ton of power, and to wrestle when he thinks he has the advantage. He should look to wrestle here so even if he loses a decision I expect him to score 40-50pts. 

Steven Asplund

7200

Vitor Petrino

Somewhat-Risky

200 

300.0 

Asplund just landed 170 significant strikes in a two round fight so for a heavyweight he has a ton of volume. If he can survive the power shots from Petrino he is likely to win this fight when Petrino gets tired.

Harry Hardwick

7000

Marwan Rahiki

Risky

210 

350.0 

I think Hardwick is much better than his last matchup let on. He got destroyed by leg kicks last time out, but that is something he should work on since it's obvious his opponents will target that moving forward. He has a decent resume and a well rounded game, if this fight took place before his last fight it would be closer to even money.

Chris Curtis

7100

Myktybek Orolbai

Risky

250 

400.0 

Curtis was always someone you could count on for being high volume and durable with good wrestling defense but he is nearly 40 years old now. Prime vs prime I would pick Curtis all day, but as he is aging it is tougher to rely on the tools that got him here.

Andre Fili

6900

Jose Delgado

Risky

250 

450.0 

Fili is a crafty veteran who I assume will try to wrestle. If this gets to Round 2 I could see Fili icing this fight by getting a couple of takedowns, but he has to survive the early part of this fight when Delgado is most dangerous.

Luan Lacerda

7300

Hecher Sosa

Risky

200

550

I don't trust Lacerda. He has been given some of the easiest matchups in the division and if there is anything that makes me question a fighter its when they make an opponent who has been dominated in the UFC look like they belong.

Bolaji Oki

6800

Manoel Sousa

Risky

210 

400

Oki can wrestle a little so he is live here, I just don't think I'll find him in many of my lineups this week.


 

 

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Emmett, Fili, Hardwick, Silva, Cutelaba

Picks and Stats

   

Josh Emmett

vs

Kevin Vallejos

$6,600

DFS Salary

$9,600

Record: 19-6-0 

Record

Record: 17-1-0 

7

Knockouts

12

2

Subs

2

400 

Vegas Odds

-549 

   

Amanda Lemos

vs

Gillian Robertson

$7,600

DFS Salary

$8,600

Record: 15-5-1 

Record

Record: 16-8-0 

8

Knockouts

3

3

Subs

9

150 

Vegas Odds

-188 

   

Andre Fili

vs

Jose Delgado

$6,900

DFS Salary

$9,300

Record: 25-12-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 10-2-0 

10

Knockouts

6

3

Subs

4

250 

Vegas Odds

-333 

   

Marwan Rahiki

vs

Harry Hardwick

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

Record: 7-0-0 

Record

Record: 13-4-1 

6

Knockouts

3

1

Subs

4

-275 

Vegas Odds

210 

   

Ion Cutelaba

vs

Oumar Sy

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

Record: 19-11-1 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 12-1-0 

13

Knockouts

5

3

Subs

4

175 

Vegas Odds

-225 

 

0

 

Charles Johnson

vs

Bruno Silva

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

Record: 18-8-0 

Record

Record: 15-7-2 (1 NC) 

8

Knockouts

6

3

Subs

5

-188 

Vegas Odds

150 

   

Chris Curtis

vs

Myktybek Orolbai

$7,100

DFS Salary

$9,100

Record: 32-12-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 15-2-1 

17

Knockouts

7

1

Subs

6

250 

Vegas Odds

-333 

   

Vitor Petrino

vs

Steven Asplund

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

Record: 13-2-0 

Record

Record: 7-1-0 

8

Knockouts

6

2

Subs

0

-250 

Vegas Odds

200 

   

Elijah Smith

vs

SuYoung You

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 9-1-0 

Record

Record: 16-3-0 (2 NC) 

5

Knockouts

3

1

Subs

5

-200 

Vegas Odds

163 

   

Bolaji Oki

vs

Manoel Sousa

$6.800

DFS Salary

$9,400

Record: 10-3-0 

Record

Record: 13-1-0 

5

Knockouts

8

1

Subs

3

210 

Vegas Odds

-275 

   

Brad Tavares

vs

Eryk Anders

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

Record: 21-12-0 

Record

Record: 17-9-0 (1 NC) 

5

Knockouts

6

2

Subs

1

-138 

Vegas Odds

110 

   

Bia Mesquita

vs

Montse Rendon

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

Record: 6-0-0 

Record

Record: 7-1-0 

1

Knockouts

0

4

Subs

0

-649 

Vegas Odds

500

   

Luan Lacerda

vs

Hecher Sosa

$7,300

DFS Salary

$8,900

Record: 13-3-0 

Record

Record: 14-1-0 

0

Knockouts

6

11

Subs

1

200

Vegas Odds

-225 

   

Piera Rodriguez

vs

Sam Hughes

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 11-2-0

Record

Record: 11-6-0

5

Knockouts

2

0

Subs

4

-150

Vegas Odds

120

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