UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Du Plessis vs. Usman Cheat Sheet, 7/18

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman

9000/7200

-

Stackability: Low

-250/ 200

140.0/350.0

This is a weird matchup as Usman moves up to 185lbs to take on former title holder Dricus Du Plessis. Usman, in his prime, dominates this fight with his wrestling, but we have only seen him fight one time since 2023, so I don't know what he'll look like out there. I think Usman can have some early success wrestling, but on the feet, Dricus is going to be too much for him, and if Kamaru slows down at all, he is a liability to get KO'd. I have Dricus winning this fight in the later rounds. 

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Dione Barbosa

9400

Anna Melisano

Somewhat-Safe

-649 

-150. 

Barbosa is the much better grappler and is a huge favorite for her price. She should be able to get the early takedowns and dominate this fight on the ground, likely winning by submission.

Alden Coria

9800

Stewart Nicoll

Somewhat-Safe

-1,000

-225. 

Coria is a huge favorite, but he isn't someone with the skillset to score well on DraftKings. He does have a few takedowns in his fights, but unless he gets the finish, there is no way he pays off this price tag.

Chase Hooper

9200

Mitch Ramirez

Somewhat-Safe

-350 

-150. 

Hooper should be able to get this fight on the ground and dominate, but he has shown durability issues lately. He is someone who, if they win their fight, almost always scores great for DraftKings. We just have to hope he doesn't get clipped by a strike, but I don't think he has to worry much about this matchup.

Christian Leroy Duncan

9100

Jared Cannonier

Moderate

-333 

175.0 

CLD is much younger and more explosive than Cannonier, but Jared is tough to finish. I don't love CLD for his price, but at some point, the 42-year-old Cannonier is going to get KO'd, and it may just be this fight.

Seokhyeon Ko

8800

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Moderate

-225 

+250 

He wrestles extremely well, but he doesn't throw up a lot of volume or try for finishes. Even in a decision win, he can score 100+ points because if he gets takedowns, he keeps his opponents down for long periods of time, so he should be pretty popular.

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Alvin Hines

8400

RJ Harris

Moderate

-138 

140.0 

I think this fight plays out similarly to the McKinney vs Green fight last week. One of these men probably scores well while the other gets KO'd. Hines is fresh off a PED suspension, while Harris only has a handful of professional fights and hasn't shown any ability to go more than 7 minutes in a fight. I'm backing Hines, and I'm confident in his ceiling, but this is a risky fight if you are in cash games or double-up contests.

Tommy McMillen

8200

Alberto Montes

Moderate

-150 

130.0 

Tommy throws a ton of volume and is a good price for his odds. I don't know if he can keep up the volume he landed in his last match if this goes more than one round, but I don't think many fighters can land close to 80 significant strikes per round and keep the pace going. I love his ceiling this week.

Austin Bashi

7900

Jose Delgado

Somewhat-Risky

-111 

275.0 

Bashi has great wrestling upside this week. Delgado hasn't shown the ability to keep a fight standing, but he is a great striker. Bashi likely needs 3-5 takedowns at minimums, so if he gets the win, he should score well.

Felipe Franco

7600

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Somewhat-Risky

140 

225.0 

Levi is coming off a failed drug test, and Franco has shown he can wrestle a little bit. This is another toss-up fight similar to Hines, but I would rather take the chance on the fighter with UFC experience compared to the fighter who is coming off a Contender Series win (with a failed drug test).

Jose Delgado

8300

Austin Bashi

Somewhat-Risky

-111 

175.0 

Delgado has big-time power, and if he can land clean on Bashi, this fight could be his. I don't love having to bank on him keeping the fight standing, but he is a good play for tournaments where you are trying to take home 1st place against a lot of people.

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

8600

Somewhat-Risky

#N/A

#N/A

This is a high-variance fight where Levi may just be the quicker fighter and can end it early. It's hard to know how a fighter is going to react coming off a suspension, but I expect him to still try to come out and be aggressive.

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

7400

Seokhyeon Ko

Somewhat-Risky

175 

350.0 

JPL can hit hard and has more volume than Ko. In some regional tape, he is too accepting of positions off his back, and that is going to be horrible if he is like that in this fight. He is more dynamic on the feet than Ko, so he does have a clear advantage in one area of this fight, which is great at his price.

Jared Cannonier

7100

Christian Leroy Duncan

Somewhat-Risky

225 

450.0 

Cannonier in his prime destroys CLD, but I don't know if he can be trusted anymore. He still has power, but he lacks explosiveness, which makes it difficult for him to get into range to set up his strikes. 

Tabatha Ricci

6900

Fatima Kline

Risky

350 

900.0 

Ricci is a good wrestler, but she is tiny for the weight class. She always has to give up size and strength to her opponents but she does have some good technical wrestling and boxing. I think the physical limitations are too much for Ricci here.

Anna Melisano

6800

Dione Barbosa

Risky

450 

600.0 

Melisano was the first overall pick on this season of The Ultimate Fighter, and she does have good striking, which will help her if this stays standing. The problem is that she lost on the first fight of the season due to the lack of her grappling game, and that is a major red flag against someone like Barbosa.

Mitch Ramirez

$7,000

Chase Hooper

Risky

260 

450.0 

Ramirez is in a tough spot against Hooper since he doesn't have the one-punch KO power that has worked against Chase. I won't be using any Ramirez this week in my lineups.

Stewart Nicoll

$6,400

Alden Coria

Risky

600 

900.0 

The line is probably too wide, but this is a big step up for Nicoll. Coria is strong, has good striking, and can mix in wrestling as needed. Nicoll is another fighter I won't be using in my lineups this week.

Dricus Du Plessis

vs

Kamaru Usman

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

22-6-0

Record

27-9-0

29

Knockouts

12

1

Subs

2

-250 

Vegas Odds

200 

Jared Cannonier

vs

Christian Leroy Duncan

$7,100

DFS Salary

$9,100

17-3-0

Record

23-4-0

6

Knockouts

6

11

Subs

11

225 

Vegas Odds

-333 

Chase Hooper

vs

Mitch Ramirez

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

18-6-0

Record

17-3-0

8

Knockouts

3

3

Subs

7

-350 

Vegas Odds

260 

Tabatha Ricci

vs

Fatima Kline

$6,900

DFS Salary

$8,800

17-9-0

Record

10-1-2000

4

Knockouts

4

9

Subs

1

350 

Vegas Odds

-500 

Tommy McMillen

vs

Alberto Montes

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

35-17-1

Record

18-8-0

8

Knockouts

9

3

Subs

9

-150 

Vegas Odds

120 

0

Austin Bashi

vs

Jose Delgado

$7,900

DFS Salary

$8,300

26-9-0

Record

31-11-0

10

Knockouts

13

5

Subs

16

-111 

Vegas Odds

-111 

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

vs

Seokhyeon Ko

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

3-0-0

Record

5-2-2000

3

Knockouts

4

0

Subs

1

-3,333

Vegas Odds

-225 

Levi Rodrigues

vs

Felipe Franco

$6,800

DFS Salary

$7,600

15-7-0

Record

17-6-1

11

Knockouts

11

0

Subs

2

-188 

Vegas Odds

140 

Alden Coria

vs

Stewart Nicoll

$9,800

DFS Salary

$6,400

12-3-2000

Record

9-1-2000

1

Knockouts

2

1

Subs

2

-100 

Vegas Odds

600 

RJ Harris

vs

Alvin Hines

$7,800

DFS Salary

$8,400

9-1-2000

Record

7-2-2000

8

Knockouts

5

1

Subs

0

110 

Vegas Odds

-138 

Anna Melisano

vs

Dione Barbosa

$6,800

DFS Salary

$6,600

15-0-0

Record

6-1-2000

1

Knockouts

3

6

Subs

1

450 

Vegas Odds

-649