UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi takes place this Saturday from The Meta Apex in Las Vegas.  Kape came to the UFC as a potential title challenger, and while he started slow, he has been on a massive run that has him one win away from fighting for the title.  Horiguchi is a UFC veteran but also fought overseas in the same organization as Kape, so he’ll look to beat him again as he did nearly ten years ago.  Both of these men refuse to take a step backwards, so this should be an action-packed fight from the first bell. As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights MMA Ownership

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi

8600/7600

-

Stackability: Low

-155/130

170/440

This is a phenomenal main event as both of these men have a claim to be the next title challenger in the Flyweight Division. Kape is more physical, while Kyoji is going to use his well-rounded game to make this a tough fight. This is a rematch from nearly ten years ago, where Kyoji won, but both of these men are much better now. I'm leaning towards Kape because at his best, he wins this fight, but the problem is he is very inconsistent. Kape has landed 100+ significant strikes in three-round fights, but also has come out and not even attempted 90 significant strikes in others, so my confidence isn't very high. Due to Kape's ability to get the KO, I think he gets it done and will be landing the more impactful strikes


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Andre Lima

9700

Kevin Borjas

Somewhat-Safe

-649 

120.0 

Lima is undefeated in the UFC, and Borjas is someone who massively slows down the later this fight goes. I don't think Lima makes this look easy in Round 1, but come Round 2 and 3, he will run away with it, mixing in his striking and his takedowns as needed.

Michael Aswell Jr.

9400

Gaston Bolanos

Somewhat-Safe

-430

145

Aswell will throw a ton of volume, and Bolanos is very one-dimensional. On the feet in a clean striking battle, Bolanos will hold his own, but Aswell has the ceiling of landing 100+ significant strikes and still getting the KO.

Navajo Stirling

9200

Ion Cutelaba

Somewhat-Safe

-333 

-138. 

Ion is normally in wild fights so someone here should score well. Stirling is the more refined striker so as long as he keeps it standing he has a good chance to end this fight by KO. If he gets taken down or gets to a decision he won't pay off his price tag.

Bia Mesquita

9600

Melissa Mullins

Moderate

-600

-190

Mesquita has great submission skills, and Mullins has limited striking, so this is a great matchup for her. Even if Mullins is the one getting the takedowns, Bia will be the one in control on the ground. She doesn't have the quick finishing ability that some of these other really high-priced fighters have, so she won't have a shot at the under-1-minute bonus. So, while I think she scores well, I don't see her having any chance at getting to 115+.

Levan Chokheli

9100

Leon Shahbazyan

Moderate

-350 

-225. 

Leon is a good fighter for about 5 minutes, so Levan has a massive advantage with the cardio. As long as he avoids the quick finish, he will likely dominate this fight with a KO finish in Round 2.




 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Shane Collins

8500

Otari Tanzilovi

Moderate

-200 

175.0 

This fight is very low level, but I think that leads to a high score for one of them. Collins is the younger, undefeated prospect who has proven he can win a decision or finish a fight early. Otari lost on the contender series to a low-level UFC fighter, so I don't expect him to be much improved. Collins will need to keep it standing, but he should be able to do it and win this fight.

Karol Rosa

8300

Luana Santos

Moderate

-125 

700.0 

Rosa is always a tough fighter to play in DFS. She has next to zero power, but she has a ton of volume. She has landed 200+ strikes in a 15-minute fight before, and with that activity, she can win this fight if it goes the distance and still score 100+. She needs to avoid Santos' takedowns and minimize the time she spends on her back, but anytime this fight is standing, she will be the one moving forward and landing.

Christian Rodriguez

8400

Hyder Amil

Somewhat-Risky

-188 

225.0 

This is another fight that I'll be targeting both sides. Rodriguez has the cardio advantage and the wrestling advantage, so I'm leaning towards him, but Amil is a wild man who is going to march forward for five minutes, looking to end the fight before he tires out. Rodriguez would be smart to try to tire out Amil with a few early takedowns, which would let him coast to a win.

Hyder Amil

7800

Christian Rodriguez

Somewhat-Risky

140 

225.0 

Amil is getting ranked highly because he will likely attempt 70+ significant strikes in the first round if it stays standing, which puts him in an elite volume class. He needs the KO to win this fight because he will slow down the longer the fight goes, but as an underdog, that isn't the worst pick.

Otari Tanzilovi

7700

Shane Collins

Somewhat-Risky

163 

350.0 

He has decent wrestling, and many times, that is the way to catch a young fighter by surprise. I don't love his volume or striking, but sometimes you only need one trick to win a fight.

Luana Santos

7900

Karol Rosa

Somewhat-Risky

100 

500.0 

There aren't many mid-priced fighters this week since the main event is in this range. Santos is a small underdog and has the wrestling and submission advantage, so she has a chance to dominate this fight. If she were stronger, I would back her more, but this is a tough fight for her to win if she doesn't get the fight on the ground for 5+ minutes.



 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Mitch Raposo

7400

Allan Nascimento

Somewhat-Risky

140 

700.0 

Raposo has good wrestling, and his hands are improving. He is a small underdog at his price, so he should be popular. He will win this fight if he keeps it standing, but he doesn't really throw much volume, so he is a low-ceiling play. At his price, I'm not as worried about the ceiling as I am just trying to get a win.

Andre Fili

7300

Vinicius Oliveira

Somewhat-Risky

210 

400.0 

Fili has pretty good wrestling, and we just saw Vinicius really struggle with it in his last fight. This could be a second veteran lesson for Vinicius if Fili sticks to a good game plan.

Ion Cutelaba

7000

Navajo Stirling

Risky

250 

350.0 

Ion is the high-upside, low-floor play in this range. At his best, he can land 5+ takedowns; at his worst, he'll be gassed out in 3 minutes and get KO'd. If you are playing in a large tournament, he is the type of player who separates you from the field if he wins.

Melsik Baghdasaryan

7200

Murtazali Magomedov

Risky

#N/A

#N/A

He has good striking but is giving up a big raw strength and wrestling gap. His striking is smooth, but this is a tough fight for him based on the stylistic matchup.

Leon Shahbazyan

7100

Levan Chokheli

Risky

260 

400.0 

He is a Round 1 or bust play, but at his price, that is fine. He is an opportunistic grappler, but he is normally the one off his back looking for submissions rather than leading the dance.

Kevin Borjas

6500

Andre Lima

Risky

400 

600.0 

He missed weight by 3 lbs., so I expect him to come out quickly and look for an early finish. I don't think he has an advantage anywhere, but he will come out throwing hard, looking to win this fight quickly.

 

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Horiguchi, Cutelaba, Raposo, Fili

Picks and Stats

   

Manel Kape

vs

Kyoji Horiguchi

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

22-7-0

Record

36-5-0

14

Knockouts

15

5

Subs

6

-163 

Vegas Odds

140

   

Ion Cutelaba

vs

Navajo Stirling

$7,000

DFS Salary

$9,200

20-11-1

Record

9-0-0

13

Knockouts

5

4

Subs

0

250 

Vegas Odds

-333 

   

Hyder Amil

vs

Christian Rodriguez

$7,800

DFS Salary

$8,400

11-2-0

Record

12-4-0

6

Knockouts

3

1

Subs

4

140 

Vegas Odds

-188 

   

Andre Fili

vs

Vinicius Oliveira

$7,300

DFS Salary

$8,900

25-13-0

Record

23-4-0

10

Knockouts

16

3

Subs

2

210 

Vegas Odds

-275 

   

Andre Lima

vs

Kevin Borjas

$9,700

DFS Salary

$6,500

11-0-0

Record

10-5-0

5

Knockouts

8

1

Subs

0

-649 

Vegas Odds

400 

 

0

 

Bea Mesquita

vs

Melissa Mullins

$9.600

DFS Salary

$6,600

7-0-0

Record

7-2-0

1

Knockouts

4

5

Subs

0

-650

Vegas Odds

350 

   

Allan Nascimento

vs

Mitch Raposo

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

22-6-0

Record

10-3-0

1

Knockouts

4

16

Subs

3

-175 

Vegas Odds

140 

   

Gaston Bolanos

vs

Michael Aswell Jr.

$6,800

DFS Salary

$9,400

8-5-0

Record

11-4-0

6

Knockouts

6

0

Subs

0

300 

Vegas Odds

-425

   

Leon Shahbazyan

vs

Levan Chokheli

$7,100

DFS Salary

$9,100

12-4-0

Record

14-3-0

1

Knockouts

11

11

Subs

0

260 

Vegas Odds

-350 

   

Karol Rosa

vs

Luana Santos

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

19-7-0

Record

10-2-0

4

Knockouts

1

2

Subs

5

-125 

Vegas Odds

100 

   

Shane Collins

vs

Otari Tanzilovi

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

7-0-0

Record

10-1-0

4

Knockouts

7

1

Subs

0

-200 

Vegas Odds

163