Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales

6500/9700

-

Stackability: Low

575/ -800

900./-165

This is a huge step up in competition for Morales so we will know if he truly is a top 10 fighter in the 170lb division after this fight. Morales really likes to pick his strikes and be defensively sound so don't look for him to come out here and brawl. Burns was on his way to a decision win over Della Maddalena in his last fight before getting KO'd by a knee in the 3rd round so he is still an elite fighter. If Burns can wrestle, this is going to be a close fight, but it all comes down to Morales and his distance management. This isn't a must play main event, especially with Morales being so highly priced, but I do think he gets the win. In my single entry contests I might end up playing Burns as massive leverage since the fight is lined to go 3.5 rounds and at his price, he should score a decent amount.

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Rodolfo Bellato

9400

Paul Craig

Somewhat-Safe

-535 

-280 

This is a tough week for the high range because there are some untrustworthy options up here. Bellato is taking on Craig in his return to the 205 lb. division, and he should be able to out physical him in the matchup. I don't expect Bellato to shoot takedowns even though he has decent submission skills, but he should still be able to overwhelm Craig and get the finish.

Nursulton Ruziboev

9000

Dustin Stoltzfus

Somewhat-Safe

-298 

-200 

Ruziboev has a ton of power, and Stoltzfus likes to enter the pocket with his hands low. I expect him to get the early KO, but his cardio is very suspect so if this fight extends, he could be in trouble.

Denise Gomes

9500

Elise Reed

Somewhat-Safe

-600 

150. 

Gomes is going to be able to out physical Reed and might be able to use her wrestling here. Gomes isn't as likely as the other fighters in this range to get the finish, but she is very likely to win the fight. I think she could get it done and have been looking at possibly betting her by submission at +500 since she has attempted a few in her past couple of fights.

Yadier del Valle

9200

Connor Matthews

Moderate

-500

110

Matthews might be the worst fighter in the division and Yadier is going to bring the pressure. If this wasn't Yadier's debut I would be more confident in him using his skills, but I'll have to go by what little tape we have that he can land his combinations on Matthews.

Tecia Pennington

9300

Luana Pinheiro

Moderate

-325 

600. 

Pennington has the wrestling advantage and has renewed confidence in her skills. She's been in there with former champs and always comes to fight, but she has a real issue with finishing her opponents. If she can wear down Pinheiro and get her to quit, she can score well but I have concerns that she gets the finish which could lead to a score in the 80-90 range.

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Jared Gordon

8200

Thiago Moises

Moderate

-120 

750. 

I'm on most of the dogs this week in the mid-priced range with the one exception being Gordon. He is going to outwork Moises and as long as he can avoid the power shots or takedowns he should be able to control the fight. It'll be close but Gordon has proven time and time again that he can outland his opponents and I think this is another prime spot for it.

Sodiq Yusuff

7900

Mairon Santos

Moderate

114 

400. 

Yusuff has fought the much tougher competition, and this fight isn't even at Santos' best weight class. Yusuff has shown in five round wars that he has crisp striking and throws a good amount of volume and power. I don't want to put too much stock in losses, but losing to Diego Lopes, and Barbosa in a fight where he landed 160 significant strikes, and 3 takedowns are still quality showings.

Carlos Hernandez

7700

HyunSung Park

Somewhat-Risky

154 

750. 

This might not be a high scoring fight, but I don't see the Park love. Park was dropped in multiple fights on the Road to UFC so he might be chinny and this is probably his toughest task. Hernandez doesn't have massive power so maybe he can't crack the chin, but I would rather take a shot on the underdog here than back Park.

Julian Erosa

7500

Melquizael Costa

Somewhat-Risky

145 

275. 

I haven't been impressed by Costa even in his recent wins. His win over Fili was a fight that he was getting dominated until Fili stuck his head in a guillotine and I can see something similar here. Erosa doesn't have the same wrestling as Fili, but his striking is more impressive so I'm expecting him to beat Costa up on the feet.

Luana Santos

8400

Tainara Lisboa

Somewhat-Risky

-170 

350. 

I'm back and forth on this fight but I think I might back Santos. She is one of the biggest favorites in the mid-range and she has some quality UFC wins but there isn't too much of a ceiling here. Lisboa is coming off of a bad injury that kept her sidelined for two years so any ring rust might be enough for Santos to swarm her or outwrestle her.

Gabe Green

7600

Matheus Camilo

Somewhat-Risky

190 

320. 

Green is another fight off of a long layoff, so I don't want to be too overexposed here. Green has had a tough run in the UFC going 1-3 but decision losses to Daniel Rodriguez and Ian Garry are tough draws for someone of Green's caliber. This is a step back in competition for Green and while Camilo has some good wins, I'm always concerned when I see wins by armbar and kimura in recent fights on someone's resume because those submissions rarely work in men's MMA these days. I line this fight closer to a toss-up.

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Dustin Stoltzfus

7200

Nursulton Ruziboev

Somewhat-Risky

240 

400. 

Stoltzfus has been better of late, and his KO of Barriault aged well after Barriault dominated last week. He is still a defensive liability so he could get KO'd early, but if he survives the 1st round, he could turn the tide of the fight.

Paul Craig

6800

Rodolfo Bellato

Somewhat-Risky

400 

550. 

Craig has some of the best ITD of the paydowns and his submission game is strong. He needs the fight on the ground if he wants to win the fight but moving back up to 205lbs from 185lbs that might be easier said than done,

Luana Pinheiro

6900

Tecia Pennington

Risky

260 

600. 

Pinheiro is strong for five minutes, but she tends to wilt. I don't like her chances to score well against a veteran in Pennington.

Connor Matthews

7000

Yadier del Valle

Risky

380 

800. 

Matthews is taking on a debuting fighter but what he has shown in the UFC has been very lackluster. Valle is a better striker, and outside of Matthews making this a gritty fight and muscling some takedowns, I don't see him having much of a chance.

Elise Reed

6700

Denise Gomes

Risky

440 

+1,200 

Reed has no finishing ability and is the second biggest dog on the card. I won't be playing her this week, as she just isn't physical enough to compete with Gomes no matter where this fight goes.

Gilbert Burns

vs

Michael Morales

$6,500

DFS Salary

$9,700

Record: 22-8-0

Record

Record: 17-0-0

6

Knockouts

12

9

Subs

1

575

Vegas Odds

-800

Rodolfo Bellato

vs

Paul Craig

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,800

Record: 12-2-1

Record

Record: 17-9-1

7

Knockouts

4

4

Subs

13

-535

Vegas Odds

+400

Sodiq Yusuff

vs

Mairon Santos

$7,900

DFS Salary

$8,300

Record: 13-4-0

Record

Record: 16-1-0

6

Knockouts

8

1

Subs

0

114

Vegas Odds

-135

Dustin Stoltzfus

vs

Nursulton Ruziboev

$7,200

DFS Salary

$9,000

Record: 16-6-0

Record

Record: 35-9-2 (2 NC)

3

Knockouts

13

6

Subs

20

240

Vegas Odds

-298

Julian Erosa

vs

Melquizael Costa

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

Record: 31-12-0

Record

Record: 23-7-0

12

Knockouts

7

14

Subs

8

145

Vegas Odds

-175

0

Gabe Green

vs

Matheus Camilo

$7,600

DFS Salary

$8,600

Record: 11-5-0

Record

Record: 9-2-0

4

Knockouts

4

6

Subs

2

190

Vegas Odds

-230

Jared Gordon

vs

Thiago Moises

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 20-7-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 19-8-0

7

Knockouts

4

2

Subs

13

-120

Vegas Odds

100

Yadier del Valle

vs

Connor Matthews

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

Record: 8-0-0

Record

Record: 7-3-0

2

Knockouts

1

2

Subs

5

-500

Vegas Odds

380

Luana Santos

vs

Tainara Lisboa

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

Record: 8-2-0

Record

Record: 7-2-0

1

Knockouts

3

4

Subs

3

-170

Vegas Odds

142

Elise Reed

vs

Denise Gomes

$6,700

DFS Salary

$9,500

Record: 8-4-0

Record

Record: 10-3-0

2

Knockouts

6

0

Subs

0

440

Vegas Odds

-600

HyunSung Park

vs

Carlos Hernandez

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 9-0-0

Record

Record: 10-4-0

4

Knockouts

0

4

Subs

4

-180

Vegas Odds

154

Tecia Pennington

vs

Luana Pinheiro

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

Record: 14-7-0

Record

Record: 11-4-0

1

Knockouts

2

1

Subs

5

-325

Vegas Odds

260