UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Burns vs. Malott Cheat Sheet, 4/18
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Malott takes place this Saturday from Winnipeg, Canada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 5:00 PM EST on Paramount+, followed by the Main Card at 8:00 PM on Paramount+. Mike Malott looks to continue his dominance on his home soil, while Gilbert Burns looks to use his submission skills to pull off the upset. Burns is one of the best submission fighters in UFC history, and Malott is someone who likes to get his fights to the ground, so this fight should be a high-level chess match for as long as it lasts. As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter, at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Malott.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Gilbert Burns vs Mike Malott | 6900/9300 | - | Stackability: Low | 250/ -333 | 350.0/-250. |
The main event this week features a former title challenger in Gilbert Burns vs one of the top Canadian fighters Mike Malott. In his prime, Burns wins this fight, and this could still be close if he can get in top position and control the pace, but Malott has shown he is still improving, and his only weak spot seems to be cardio. Malott should be able to get this done in his home country, and I expect him to get the finish as both of these fighters fade if they get into R3. | |||||
Expensive Fighters
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jasmine Jasudavicius | 9200 | Karine Silva | Somewhat-Safe | -300 | 350.0 |
Jasmine is someone who, even in a decision, can score 90-100 pts, and that is great on a card filled with uncertainty. Her wrestling is some of the top in the division, and she should be able to get multiple takedowns here unless she gets the early finish. | |||||
Marcio Barbosa | #N/A | #N/A | Somewhat-Safe | -450 | -333. |
His opponent has had a bad run in the UFC so far, but took a year off to solely focus on training, so this could be a surprising fight. He has all of the R1 finishing upside in this fight, so if he wins, he will pay off his price. | |||||
Jamie Siraj | 9100 | John Yannis | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | 120.0 |
He needs to survive R1, and his chin isn't great, but he should be able to dominate the fight on the ground. I'm expecting him to get the submission win if he survives Yannis' early onslaught. | |||||
Charles Jourdain | 8700 | Kyler Phillips | Moderate | -163 | 240.0 |
This should be a fun fight, and as long as Jourdain keeps it standing, he has the advantage. He isn't a huge favorite, so I prefer mid-range fighters for their safety, but he has a decent chance of finishing the fight in R3. | |||||
Jamey-Lyn Horth | 8900 | JJ Aldrich | Moderate | -188 | 400.0 |
Horth is powerful and should be able to use her physicality to dominate JJ here. This is another toss-up fight in the high range, and she doesn't have much finishing ability. She is a contrarian tournament play only. | |||||
Mid-Range Fighters
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Gokhan Saricam | 8500 | Tanner Boser | Moderate | -163 | 163.0 |
This range is weird this week. Boser has had one fight in three years, and this is his first fight since rejoining the UFC. Gokhan has wrestling upside, and some finishing upside, so he makes for a decent play in the mid-range. | |||||
Robert Valentin | 8300 | Julien Leblanc | Moderate | -150 | 105.0 |
Valentin has been extremely untrustworthy so far, but he has a big advantage in wrestling and submissions here. I don't love fighters who haven't shown an ability to win a fight in the UFC yet, but this is a major step back in competition for him. | |||||
John Castaneda | 8000 | Mark Vologdin | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | |
He has a massive reach advantage here, and he has shown he can wrestle and strike pretty well. He has power that could cause Vologdin trouble when he closes the distance. As long as he fights smart, he should get the win. | |||||
Melissa Croden | 8600 | Daria Zhelezniakova | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | 225.0 |
Another WMMA where the favorite has the physicality and wrestling upside, but she may be outgunned on the feet. If she makes this a dirty fight, she can win it, but I don't expect her to get a finish. | |||||
Gauge Young | 8400 | Thiago Moises | Somewhat-Risky | -138 | 240.0 |
I've been back and forth on this fight all week. On the feet, Young will look like he should be -500, but if this gets on the ground, he'll look like he should be +500. Moises is coming off a KO loss, so I am leaning towards Young, but if Moises has any success wrestling, this will be a tough fight for Gauge. | |||||
Thiago Moises | 7800 | Gauge Young | Somewhat-Risky | 110 | 300.0 |
He has submission upside, and even in a decision win, he will score well with his wrestling. He's worth a shot as an underdog this week. | |||||
Julien Leblanc | 7900 | Robert Valentin | Risky | 120 | 300.0 |
If he lands clean, he will KO Valentin. He has scoring upside compared to the WMMA fighters in this range. | |||||
Paydown Fighters
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Kyler Phillips | 7500 | Charles Jourdain | Somewhat-Risky | 130 | 300.0 |
He has a well-rounded skillset, and early in this fight, he should be able to win the rounds. This is a tight fight, and at $7500, he is well worth the price. | |||||
JJ Aldrich | 7300 | Jamey-Lyn Horth | Somewhat-Risky | 150 | #N/A |
JJ is always in tight fights, and she is tough to finish. This should be a decision win, but at her price, she can score 75pts and still be on the optimal lineup if some of the other underdogs lose. | |||||
Jai Herbert | 7400 | Mandel Nallo | Risky | 140 | 350.0 |
He has power, but if it gets to a decision, he won't land more than 50 significant strikes. He is KO or bust. | |||||
John Yannis | 7100 | Jamie Siraj | Risky | 175 | 400.0 |
He has some power, and a R1 finish is possible. I don't love banking on fighters with one-round cardio, but as a massive underdog, he is worth a shot. | |||||
Karine Silva | 7000 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | Risky | 225 | 350.0 |
One of the most talented underdogs on the card, but it's a tough matchup to score against with how much wrestling Jas does. Silva will have to keep it standing and out-volume her on the feet, but that normally isn't a recipe for a high DraftKings score. | |||||
Dennis Buzukja | 6800 | Marcio Barbosa | Risky | 333 | 700.0 |
Marcio may tire out after R1, which could lead to Dennis taking over. He took a full year off to focus on training, so this should be the best version of him that we have seen, but he's still the biggest dog on the card by far. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Burns, Moises, Castaneda, Phillips
Picks and Stats
Gilbert Burns | vs | Mike Malott |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
Record: 22-9-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-1 |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
9 | Subs | 6 |
250 | Vegas Odds | -333 |
Kyler Phillips | vs | Charles Jourdain |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 17-8-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 7 |
130 | Vegas Odds | -163 |
Mandel Nallo | vs | Jai Herbert |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 14-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-6-1 |
8 | Knockouts | 9 |
6 | Subs | 1 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | 140 |
Jasmine Jasudavicius | vs | Karine Silva |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 19-6-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 8 |
4 | Subs | 9 |
-300 | Vegas Odds | 225 |
Thiago Moises | vs | Gauge Young |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 19-9-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 6 |
8 | Subs | 1 |
110 | Vegas Odds | -138 |
0 | ||
Dennis Buzukja | vs | Marcio Barbosa |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 17-2-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 14 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
333 | Vegas Odds | -450 |
Julien Leblanc | vs | Robert Valentin |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-6-0 (1 NC) |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 6 |
120 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
Tanner Boser | vs | Gokhan Saricam |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 22-10-1 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
130 | Vegas Odds | -163 |
Melissa Croden | vs | Daria Zhelezniakova |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 7-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | 130 |
JJ Aldrich | vs | Jamey-Lyn Horth |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
150 | Vegas Odds | -188 |
John Castaneda | vs | Mark Vologdin |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 21-8-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-1 |
7 | Knockouts | 6 |
7 | Subs | 4 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | 100 |
Jamie Siraj | vs | John Yannis |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
7 | Subs | 0 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | 175 |