The UFC returns to Canada and is headlined by a ranked matchup in the welterweight division. Mike Malott is the Canadian fighter who is still rising up the rankings as he takes on what will likely be the toughest test in his career. On the other side of the matchup, Joaquin Buckley looks to add another highlight-reel KO to his resume as he gets back on track after going up against some of the best wrestlers the division has seen in his recent run. The fights kick off at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+ with the Prelims, and the Main Card starts at 8:00 PM ET.
Check out all the latest UFC odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott | 7800/8400 | - | Stackability: Low | 100/ -125 | 163.0/175.0 |
This is a great main event for a Canadian card as countryman Mike Malott takes on a tough test in Joaquin Buckley. Malott is quicker and has better wrestling, but he hasn't shown that he can put together a tough 15 minutes. Buckley is coming off a bunch of tough wrestling matchups against Covington, Usman, and Brady, and while the path to victory for Malott is clear, he hasn't shown he can compete with this level yet. I think Buckley wins whenever this is on the feet, but Malott has the takedown upside. I'm leaning towards Buckley winning this fight, but both are playable on DraftKings since if Malott wins it likely comes with 4+ takedowns and 10+ minutes of control time. | |||||
Expensive Fighters
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Nick Galanti | 9500 | Julien Leblanc | Somewhat-Safe | -649 | -333. |
Leblanc is not UFC caliber; Galanti wins this likely by submission in under 1.5 rounds. My only concern is he wins this in 2-3 minutes but doesn't score the 105+ pts that he needs at his price. | |||||
Mandel Nallo | 9100 | Nate Landwehr | Somewhat-Safe | -275 | -225. |
Nallo just goes out there swinging and does not care about defense. He is quicker than Landwehr and a little more durable. I'm not overly confident he won this fight, but I am confident that this fight will end in the first round, so he has a higher ceiling than almost anyone on the slate. | |||||
Erin Blanchfield | 9300 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | Somewhat-Safe | -333 | 300.0 |
Blanchfield is a better striker and has better submission skills as well. As long as she doesn't end up on the bottom, she dominates this fight. Her odds to finish the fight are much worse than others in this range, but I am more confident that she wins. | |||||
Cristian Perez | 9200 | Kyle Nelson | Moderate | -350 | |
Nelson is tough, but his best days were at 145lbs. Perez is going to be able to outwrestle him and dominate this fight. Going against a veteran is a tough task for anyone, but Perez is the much more athletic fighter in this matchup. | |||||
Jhonata Diniz | 8800 | Tanner Boser | Moderate | -250 | -138. |
This is a heavyweight fight, so we likely get a good score out of it. Boser does not have good finishing ability, so I'm leaning towards Diniz landing the heavier shots and getting the win. If this goes to decision, neither fighter will score well. | |||||
Mid-Range Fighters
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Kyle Daukaus | 8700 | Marc-Andre Barriault | Moderate | -188 | -120. |
He has a clear path to victory by wrestling and could get a quick submission. Barriault is tough, so winning by KO is likely not going to happen. | |||||
Louis Jourdain | 8600 | Timmy Cuamba | Moderate | -188 | 150.0 |
Another Canadian on the card, with a tough matchup. This will be a tight test, and Cuamba is durable, but the volume that Jourdain is going to put out is something that Cuamba can't keep up with. | |||||
Steven Koslow | 8000 | Chad Anheliger | Somewhat-Risky | -150 | 120.0 |
This matchup makes no sense. Koslow is on a four-year layoff; Anheliger is on a two-year layoff. Koslow has always been a submission-or-bust fighter, so he either wins this by sub early or he gets dominated. He is much younger than Anheliger, so hopefully he has improved during his time away recovering from injury. | |||||
Cody Chovancek | 8500 | SuYoung You | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | 200.0 |
He has more power than You, but he needs to avoid the takedowns. He's making his UFC debut, but he has a striking advantage and should be the physically stronger fighter. | |||||
Joel Faglier | 7900 | Javad Mahjoub | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | 140.0 |
Two heavyweights are making their debut, so someone is going to go out. Javad has a better wrestling pedigree, but overall, Joel is the better fighter. He should get some heavy ownership as an underdog that is a favorite | |||||
Paydown Fighters
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Marc-Andre Barriault | 7500 | Kyle Daukaus | Somewhat-Risky | 150 | 350.00 |
Daukaus can be chinny at times; if Barriault lands clean early, he may be able to hurt him. He needs to avoid the takedowns at all costs. | |||||
Nate Landwehr | 7100 | Mandel Nallo | Somewhat-Risky | 210 | 240.0 |
This fight is going to be chaos until someone gets finished quickly. He doesn't have the physical tools to match Nallo, but he does have the heart to keep on fighting even when he is hurt. He may just be the fighter who wants it more. | |||||
Tanner Boser | 7400 | Jhonata Diniz | Risky | 200 | 500.0 |
He's similar to Pitbull; he is going to land his shots, he's giving up power, but his opponent isn't some top prospect. His durability isn't great, so he's below Pitbull, but he likely gets to a decision if he wins and scores 70-80pts. | |||||
Kyle Nelson | 7000 | Cristian Perez | Risky | 260 | 350.0 |
Nelson has the experience edge and hits hard. He was a size bully at 145lbs and won't have that advantage here. He is tough and priced as one of the cheapest fighters, so he's worth a shot for his price as a KO or bust pick. | |||||
Jasmine Jasudavicius | 6900 | Erin Blanchfield | Risky | 250 | 900.0 |
She is good at wrestling, but not as good as Erin's. This fight is likely going to be a decision, so if she can land a few takedowns and 50 significant strikes, she might be able to end up on the optimal even in a loss. | |||||
Mackenzie Stiller | 7200 | Katlyn Cerminara | Risky | 210 | 350.0 |
Stiller is coming off of TUF and going against a former top 5 fighter in the division. Kaitlyn was 200+ lbs. last year when she was going through her pregnancy, but she did make weight for the fight. I don't know how Kaitlyn's body is going to react to coming back so quickly, so Stiller is worth a shot, as this fight is almost a guarantee to go to decision. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Buckley, Faglier, You, Koslow
Picks and Stats
Joaquin Buckley | vs | Mike Malott |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
17-2-0 | Record | 30-6-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 12 |
100 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
Erin Blanchfield | vs | Jasmine Jasudavicius |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
23-3-0 | Record | 14-2-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 13 |
6 | Subs | 0 |
-333 | Vegas Odds | 250 |
Kyle Nelson | vs | Cristian Perez |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
37-9-0 | Record | 17-4-1 |
12 | Knockouts | 14 |
12 | Subs | 1 |
260 | Vegas Odds | -350 |
Marc-Andre Barriault | vs | Kyle Daukaus |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
4-0-0 | Record | 4-2-2000 |
4 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
-3,333 | Vegas Odds | -188 |
Louis Jourdain | vs | Timmy Cuamba |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
18-6-1 | Record | 9-0-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 7 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
-188 | Vegas Odds | 150 |
0 | ||
Mandel Nallo | vs | Nate Landwehr |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
23-12-1 | Record | 18-8-1 |
8 | Knockouts | 8 |
10 | Subs | 7 |
-275 | Vegas Odds | 210 |
Tanner Boser | vs | Jhonata Diniz |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
14-10-0 | Record | 6-2-2000 |
13 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
200 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
Julien Leblanc | vs | Nick Galanti |
$6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
11-5-2000 | Record | 9-1-2000 |
6 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
450 | Vegas Odds | -649 |
Javad Mahjoub | vs | Joel Faglier |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
10-1-2000 | Record | 10-4-2000 |
6 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
100 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
Katlyn Cerminara | vs | Mackenzie Stiller |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
16-6-0 | Record | 15-4-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 9 |
1 | Subs | 5 |
-275 | Vegas Odds | 210 |
Chad Anheliger | vs | Steven Koslow |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
11-2-2000 | Record | 12-2-2000 |
4 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 5 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
Melissa Croden | vs | Chelsea Chandler |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
15-6-0 | Record | 19-5-1 |
9 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 8 |
-333 | Vegas Odds | 250 |
Cody Chovancek | vs | SuYoung You |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record | ||
6 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-120 | Vegas Odds | 100 |