UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs Barber takes place this Saturday, live from Las Vegas, Nevada.  The card kicks off with the Prelims at 6:30 PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 9:30 on ESPN+.  The Main Event features two top-five staples in the women’s flyweight division in Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber.  Blanchfield is a high-level BJJ specialist who wants to get the fight to the ground as quickly as possible, while Barber is going to look to keep it standing and land powerful strikes on her opponent.  Both of these women could be one fight away from a title shot, so a statement win here could see them fight for a title at the end of the year.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs Barber 

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Erin Blanchfield vs Maycee Barber

9100/7100

-

Stackability: Low

-238/ -200

300./450.

Blanchfield has the superior ground game and is going to look to get the fight down there early and often but her overall striking game is a little underwhelming. If Barber keeps it standing, she should win this fight so it all comes down to how much ground time Blanchfield can control. Barber has always struggled to stop takedowns, but she may just be the more physical fighter in this matchup which could help her stay standing. At these odds I like Barber, but Blanchfield is a great dfs play with her takedown upside. I'll have both of them in GPPs, but I am leaning on taking a shot on Barber. Both of these girls are extremely young so they should be main stays in the division for years to come.

 

 

 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Zachary Reese

9200

Dusko Todorovic

Somewhat-Safe

-250

-185 

This is a high variance fight but for GPPs it is almost a must play. Both of these fighters are kill or be killed types, so it'll be exciting as long as it lasts. I think Reese has more durability and physicality so he should be able to get it done with a 1st or 2nd round KO.
Bolaji Oki

8900

Michael Aswell Jr.

Somewhat-Safe

-360 

#N/A

Aswell is going to throw a ton of volume, so Oki is going to need a finish or to keep pace which is good for his scoring upside. He is the more powerful striker by far and the smaller cage should favor him. He should get it done early against a short notice replacement/
Dustin Jacoby

8800

Bruno Lopes

Somewhat-Safe

-198 

150. 

Jacoby is the cleaner striker, and he should be able to land down the middle if he throws straight. My biggest concern is his chin hasn't looked great recently, but this is still a very winnable fight for him since Lopes power isn't great for the division. Jacoby gets it done but it could be a decision, so I don't put his ceiling as high as the fighters above him.
Jordan Leavitt

8700

Kurt Holobaugh

Moderate

-230 

240. 

Leavitt has great submissions, but he can be overwhelmed by physicality. Holobaugh is slowing down, and if this fight hits the ground, I expect Leavitt to control the fight. On the feet neither of these fighters are anything exceptional so I'm leaning towards Leavitt and his submission skills here. He has a high ceiling but I'm not as confident that he can actually get the takedowns that he needs to win the fight.
Rayanne dos Santos

9300

Alice Ardelean

Moderate

-265 

450. 

Dos Santos is the much better grappler, and fighter in general but this could be a low volume striking battle with a few takedowns mixed in and for the most expensive fighter that isn't what I want to play. Ardelean was basically signed to the UFC because of her huge TikTok following, but Dos Santos has been in split decisions, so she isn't someone who is dominating her competition. I'm staying away from this one for the most part, but if Dos Santos does get an early takedown maybe she can get the submission, but it is unlikely.



 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Mateusz Gamrot

8500

Ludovit Klein

Moderate

-162 

600. 

Gamrot is going to shoot for a ton of takedowns, but he has no finishing ability. This is the price range where Gamrot really pays off because in a decision win he likely scores 100pts so at $8500 he can easily pay off the salary.
Billy Ray Goff

8300

Ramiz Brahimaj

Moderate

-360 

100. 

Goff is going to be the highest owned fighter due to his massive odds value since he has a new opponent after his original opponent had visa issues. He's clearly the #1 cash play in this range but for tournaments he is going to come with massive ownership. This fight is going to be another high variance fight. Goff is the better wrestler and has a better gas tank, but he has to survive the early onslaught of striking. I think he gets the Round 2 KO here and scores pretty well for his price.
Macy Chiasson

8000

Ketlen Vieira

Somewhat-Risky

-120 

475. 

I don't love this fight for volume or to produce a high scorer, but Chiasson is a favorite at $8000 so she'll get some ownership. If anyone is going to wrestle it should be her, so her floor is pretty good as well. 
Jafel Filho

7600

Allan Nascimento

Somewhat-Risky

124 

250. 

This fight is probably the biggest question mark in the mid-range. Both of these fighters are good submission artists, but my biggest concern in this fight is Nascimento hasn't fought in over two years. If this stays standing Filho should be able to win the fight, and in the scrambles on the ground it is going to be a 50/50 fight, so I'll take the underdog with the better striking.
Ludovit Klein

7700

Mateusz Gamrot

Somewhat-Risky

136 

330. 

Gamrot has been hurt before, and while Klein isn't known for having one punch KO power, he is live to land one here. If this stays standing, he will out volume Gamrot since Gamrot is one of the lowest volume strikers in the UFC so it could be a close fight. As long as he doesn't get stuck on his back, he should be able to work his way back up and make this a competitive fight.



 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Kurt Holobaugh

7500

Jordan Leavitt

Somewhat-Risky

190 

350. 

Holobaugh is a crafty veteran and while he needs to avoid the ground, he should be able to have a physicality and power advantage here. He probably needs to get the finish to win but that is within his range of outcomes.
Dusko Todorovic

7000

Zachary Reese

Somewhat-Risky

190 

275. 

This is a GPP only fight because Todorovic might score 5pts but could score 105pts. He should have the early speed advantage, but this really comes down to his durability and his ability to move his head. If he isn't defensively sound, he could get clipped at any time.
Bruno Lopes

7400

Dustin Jacoby

Risky

164 

300. 

Lopes can win this fight and with Jacoby's chin being not what it used to he has upside. I think Jacoby wins this fight but at Lopes price he is a good play and someone who can score well if he does land one well-placed power shot to KO Jacoby.
Ramiz Brahimaj

6700

Billy Ray Goff

Risky

285 

400. 

Ramiz has the R1 or bust-up that makes him a good play at his price, but he is very risky because of the amount of people on Goff. If he pulls it off you almost guarantee yourself a cash in a GPP, but if he loses badly, you are going to get crushed by 60% of the field having Goff.
Michael Aswell Jr.

6800

Baloji Oki

Risky

+270 

#N/A

He was just added to the card but looked in good shape on the scale. It's always tough coming in on short notice but I expect him to be the more active fighter, attempting more strikes, but he is giving up a lot of power to Oki.
Alice Ardelean

6900

Rayanne dos Santos

Risky

215 

900. 

She doesn't have much of a ceiling, so she needs to win and hope others in this range lose for her to win you a GPP. With so much upside in the other dogs this week I'll be focusing elsewhere.

 

 

 

Sample Lineup

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Live Dogs

Barber, Klein, Lopes, Filho

Picks and Stats

   

Erin Blanchfield

vs

Maycee Barber

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

Record: 13-2-0 

Record

Record: 14-2-0 

2

Knockouts

6

4

Subs

2

-238 

Vegas Odds

-200

   

Mateusz Gamrot

vs

Ludovit Klein

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 24-3-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 23-4-1 

8

Knockouts

9

5

Subs

8

-162 

Vegas Odds

+145 

   

Billy Ray Goff

vs

Ramiz Brahimaj

$8,300

DFS Salary

$6,700

Record: 9-3-0 

Record

Record: 11-5-0 

7

Knockouts

1

0

Subs

10

-360 

Vegas Odds

285 

   

Dustin Jacoby

vs

Bruno Lopes

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

Record: 20-9-1 

Record

Record: 14-1-0 

13

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

5

-198 

Vegas Odds

164 

   

Ketlen Vieira

vs

Macy Chiasson

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 14-4-0 

Record

Record: 11-3-0 

2

Knockouts

3

4

Subs

3

100 

Vegas Odds

-120 

 

0

 

Zachary Reese

vs

Dusko Todorovic

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

Record: 8-2-0 

Record

Record: 12-5-0 

5

Knockouts

8

2

Subs

3

-250

Vegas Odds

190 

   

Jafel Filho

vs

Allan Nascimento

$7,600

DFS Salary

$8,600

Record: 16-3-0 

Record

Record: 20-6-0 

5

Knockouts

9

10

Subs

8

124 

Vegas Odds

-148 

   

Kurt Holobaugh

vs

Jordan Leavitt

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

Record: 22-9-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 11-3-0 

7

Knockouts

2

10

Subs

6

190 

Vegas Odds

-230 

   

Bolaji Oki

vs

Michael Aswell Jr.

$8,900

DFS Salary

$6,800

Record: 9-2-0 

Record

Record: 10-2-0 

4

Knockouts

2

4

Subs

8

-360 

Vegas Odds

+270 

   

Rayanne dos Santos

vs

Alice Ardelean

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

Record: 14-8-0 

Record

Record: 9-7-0 

0

Knockouts

0

0

Subs

0

-265 

Vegas Odds

215 

 

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