UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliviera takes place this Saturday from The UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada.  The card kicks off with the Prelims at 5:00PM EST on Paramount+, followed by the Main Card at 8:00PM on Paramount+.  Two high level fighters in the 135lb division face off  in the main event as they both look to push themselves into the conversation of the top five of the division.  Both of these men are going to push forward and meet in the middle for what should be an explosive main event.  As always head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights MMA Ownership

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliviera

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira

8800/7400

-

Stackability: Low

-175/ 200

150.0/275.0

A step back in the main event this week from the first two cards this year but this should be a fun one. "Lok Dog" Oliveira is going to push for action and should have the advantage early. Bautista has the grappling and cage control upside, as well as an advantage if this gets to the later rounds. I like Oliveira to get it done, but this is going to be a very tight fight . Both of them are good plays on DraftKings since at their prices they will likely score enough to pay off the price even if this goes to a five round decision.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Daniil Donchenko

9600

Alex Morono

Somewhat-Safe

-549 

-275. 

Donchenko hits like a truck and early on he should be able to dominate the fight. My only concern is if he gets out of Round 1 it is a complete unknown if his cardio will hold up (I don't think it will), but at his price we are looking to get the early finish anyway.

Michal Oleksiejczuk

9100

Marc-Andre Barriault

Somewhat-Safe

#N/A

#N/A

Mikey O has been a beast since moving to the Fighting Nerds camp, and this is a great match up for him. Barriault in his prime would make this a war, but his chin seems to be gone. Michal will land something early that ends this fight quickly.

Nikolay Veretennikov

8900

Niko Price

Somewhat-Safe

-275 

 

This is more of a high ceiling play than a confidence play. Niko Price's calling card was always his durability but lately that has started to crack. Veretennikov hits extremely hard, and if he lands early I expect him to get this fight done with quickly. If Price can get his wrestling going this will be greasy, but I think it's time for Price to hang up the gloves.

Wang Cong

9200

Eduarda Moura

Moderate

-333 

225.0 

Cong throws a lot of volume, and hopefully can tire Moura out here. I don't love someone with such low finishing upside, but there are a lot of unproven high priced fighters this week who tend to go to decision, and out of them I think Cong has the easiest path to a win with her striking.

Farid Basharat

9000

Jean Matsumoto

Moderate

-275 

500.0 

This fight is almost a guarantee to go to decision so I probably won't play much Basharat at his price. He could get some takedowns which would help his score, but I think this will be a competitive fight where the winner only scores around 75-85pts.



 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Jailton Almeida

8500

Rizvan Kuniev

Moderate

-115

105.0 

Almeida is always a tough pick because his fights are a toss up. He is going to wrestle, score a ton of takedown points and control time, but he rarely goes for damage and his striking is nearly a zero. His ceiling is still 100+ points even if he lands under 20 significant strikes even in a decision, and with that upside he has to be a top play.

Jahvid Bashart

8300

Gianni Vasquez

Moderate

-500

 

He is -500 so a lock for cash games at his price, but I don’t know if he has 110+ point upside like Almeida.  He is the safest play on the entire card, but his ownership is going to be through the roof now that he takes on a late replacement in Vasquez

Muin Gafurov

8200

Jakub Wiklacz

Somewhat-Risky

-138 

300

Muin is low volume, but he can wrestle a little bit and has a ton of power. This is a tight mid range fight that I could see going either way, it all depends on if Muin can land his power shots because if he doesn't he will likely get outworked.

Ketlen Souza

8400

Bruna Brasil

Somewhat-Risky

-163 

350.0 

She's more well rounded than Brasil but mostly I'm putting her here because of the cardio advantage. She should be able to take this fight over late, and probably win a decision where she scores around 80pts. If she gets the late finish she has a chance to be on the optimal lineup, which I could see happening as well if she uses her wrestling to really break Bruna.

Rizvan Kuniev

7700

Jailton Almeida

Somewhat-Risky

120 

240.0 

If this fight stays standing Kuniev is going to KO Jailton due to his nearly 40 lb. advantage when these two eventually get in the cage. More than likely you will need the winner of this fight to win a tournament.

Priscila Cachoeira

7600

Klaudia Sygula

Somewhat-Risky

130 

200

She is going to push forward, and if her chin keeps her in this fight she should be able to take Sygula to deep waters. I don't know how likely she is to really push into the pocket and trade shots after being KO'd recently, but at her age I don't see her changing her approach from what got her into the UFC.

Bruna Brasil

7800

Ketlen Souza

Risky

130 

600.0 

Bruna has some good wrestling when she uses it, and both of these woman have struggled to defensively wrestle in the past so if she ends up being the more aggressive fighter I could see her winning this on volume and control time.



 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Julius Walker

7500

Dustin Jacoby

Somewhat-Risky

150 

300.0 

Walker is facing a tough veteran in Jacoby, but Jacoby has had durability problems lately. Walker should be able to dictate where this fight takes place and have the better chin and cardio.

Niko Price

7300

Nikolay Veretennikov

Somewhat-Risky

210 

500

Price is going to be more active and has been in a ton of wars. If he survives Round 1 this fight could be his, but this is going to be a really hard first five minutes for Niko.

Jean Matsumoto

7200

Farid Basharat

Risky

210 

900.0 

This is likely going to decision so I would rather play the dog here than the favorite. Both of these guys can wrestle, and strike, but don't expect 100 significant strikes out of the winner. I think this is a low scoring fight compared to a lot of the other higher variance fights.

Eduarda Moura

7000

Wang Cong

Risky

250 

400.0 

Cong has been finished before, and Moura has some power and she should look for takedowns. Cong has defended takedowns well throughout her brief UFC career but Moura has taken down every opponent she has faced.

Marc-Andre Barriault

7100

Michal Oleksiejczuk

Risky

350 

400.0 

This should be a war, and in his prime Barriault would be able to exchange in the pocket but I'm not sure he has that ability anymore. I'm expecting Barriault gets KO'd in R1.

Amir Albazi

6900

Kyoji Horiguchi

Risky

260 

600.0 

Albazi is so low volume that even in his wins he doesn't normally help on DraftKings. He's never landed more than 70 significant strikes or more than 2 takedowns and that includes five round fights so his ceiling in a decision win is around 60pts.

Alex Morono

6600

Daniil Donchenko

Risky

400 

600.0 

Morono might be able to survive the first five minutes, but this is another aging veteran who has shown durability concerns. This isn't the same fighter who beat Cowboy Cerrone back in his prime.


 

 

Sample Lineup


 

Live Dogs

Oliviera, Walker, Cachoeira, Moura, Price

Picks and Stats

   

Mario Bautista

vs

Vinicius Oliveira

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

Record: 16-3-0

Record

Record: 23-3-0

3

Knockouts

16

6

Subs

2

-175

Vegas Odds

+200

   

Amir Albazi

vs

Kyoji Horiguchi

$6,700

DFS Salary

$9,300

Record: 17-2-0

Record

Record: 35-5-0 (1 NC)

5

Knockouts

15

9

Subs

6

260

Vegas Odds

+145

   

Jailton Almeida

vs

Rizvan Kuniev

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 22-4-0

Record

Record: 12-3-1 (1 NC)

8

Knockouts

6

13

Subs

2

-115

Vegas Odds

105

   

Michal Oleksiejczuk

vs

Marc-Andre Barriault

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

Record: 21-9-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 17-10-0 (1 NC)

16

Knockouts

11

1

Subs

1

-425

Vegas Odds

350

   

Jean Matsumoto

vs

Farid Basharat

$7,200

DFS Salary

$9,000

Record: 17-1-0

Record

Record: 14-0-0

6

Knockouts

1

3

Subs

6

210

Vegas Odds

-275

 

0

 

Dustin Jacoby

vs

Julius Walker

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

Record: 21-9-1

Record

Record: 7-1-0

14

Knockouts

4

1

Subs

2

-188

Vegas Odds

150

   

Alex Morono

vs

Daniil Donchenko

$6,600

DFS Salary

$9,600

Record: 24-12-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 13-2-0

6

Knockouts

8

7

Subs

2

400

Vegas Odds

-549

   

Nikolay Veretennikov

vs

Niko Price

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

Record: 13-7-0

Record

Record: 16-9-0 (2 NC)

9

Knockouts

10

1

Subs

3

-275

Vegas Odds

210

   

Bruna Brasil

vs

Ketlen Souza

$7,800

DFS Salary

$8,400

Record: 11-5-1

Record

Record: 15-6-0

3

Knockouts

8

2

Subs

2

130

Vegas Odds

-163

   

Javid Basharat

vs

Gianni Vazquez

$8,300

DFS Salary

 

Record: 14-2-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 13-4-1

5

Knockouts

4

6

Subs

3

 

Vegas Odds

 
   

Wang Cong

vs

Eduarda Moura

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

Record: 8-1-0

Record

Record: 12-1-0

2

Knockouts

4

2

Subs

5

-333

Vegas Odds

250

   

Muin Gafurov

vs

Jakub Wiklacz

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 20-6-0

Record

Record: 17-3-2

10

Knockouts

0

7

Subs

10

-138

Vegas Odds

110

   

Klaudia Sygula

vs

Priscila Cachoeira

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 7-2-0

Record

Record: 13-7-0

2

Knockouts

8

1

Subs

0

-163 

Vegas Odds

130 

   

Â