UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Cheat Sheet, 7/25
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov takes place this weekend live from Abu Dhabi. The main event features two men with title aspirations in 2027 as Ankalaev looks to reclaim the title after losing it to Pereira, and Guskov looks to get within one more win of a shot. Guskov will be looking to march forward early and often, so look for this one to be intense from the opening bell. As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights MMA Ownership
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov | 9500/6700 | - | Stackability: Low | -549/ 400 | -225. /400.0 |
Bogdan steps in for a short-notice main event spot against former champion Magomed Ankalaev. Ankalaev has a "boring" style where he isn't really high volume or looking to take chances in the grappling, but Bogdan is going to go for it. Bogdan has limited cardio, so expect him to come out here and try to end this fight quickly. Bogdan is going to take chances, so he makes for a high-upside underdog. I think Ankalaev wins this fight, but Guskov is live for a KO after Ankalaev was just KO'd by Pereira. | |||||
Expensive Fighters
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Islam Dulatov | 9800 | Wellington Turman | Somewhat-Safe | -800 | -400. |
Dulatov averages around 8 significant strikes landed per minute and has two first-round UFC finishes. Turman hasn't fought in the UFC in over two years, so I won't be expecting much resistance from him. | |||||
Magomed Tuchalov | 9700 | Brendson Ribeiro | Somewhat-Safe | -800 | -400. |
This is more of a play against Ribeiro. Ribeiro has bad durability, which someone with Tuchalov's power can exploit. I expect this fight to be done in the first 7 minutes. | |||||
Sam Patterson | 9200 | Damian Rzepecki | Somewhat-Safe | -500 | -250. |
Patterson has much better submission skills and is going to be much quicker. He isn't as durable as the two higher priced fighters above him, but he should still be able to finish this fight in the first two rounds. | |||||
Valter Walker | 8800 | Thomas Petersen | Moderate | -175 | 105.0 |
He's known for his heel hook submissions, and this is where I started to get a little less confident this week. If Walker doesn't get the early submission, it is likely because he struggles with takedowns, which makes this fight 50/50. Due to his ability to end a fight early, he is high up on my list, but he isn't as technical as some of the other high-priced options. | |||||
Rizvan Kuniev | 9000 | Tyrell Fortune | Moderate | -333 | 150.0 |
Kuniev is taking a big step down here. He has more power, should be able to keep the fight where he wants it, and has decent cardio. I expect him to win this fight, but he isn't a lock to finish it, so his ceiling isn't as high as some others on the card. | |||||
Mid-Range Fighters
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Nurullo Aliev | 8500 | Mike Davis | Moderate | -225 | 300.0 |
The mid-range this week has a lot of question marks. Aliev looked career-best during his last fight, and if he uses his smothering grappling, he should be able to dominate. On the feet, this is a close fight, but his biggest advantage is on the ground. | |||||
Ramazan Temirov | 8000 | Steve Erceg | Moderate | -110 | 175.0 |
Temirov is coming off of a PED suspension, but if anyone is getting the finish in this fight, it is him. He has much better finishing ability and is the underdog in the fight, so that is a strong play on any card; add in his -110 line, and he should be a high-owned play. | |||||
Axel Sola | 8600 | Ismael Bonfim | Somewhat-Risky | -200 | 130.0 |
Sola is just a better version of Bonfim, at least when they are both fresh. If this gets into Round 3, I'm nervous Sola won't be able to keep up his pace, but he is a good price for how often he ends this fight in the first two rounds. | |||||
Mike Davis | 7700 | Nurullo Aliev | Somewhat-Risky | 175 | 240.0 |
Davis has more KO power than Aliev, but he only fights once a year and sometimes comes out flat. I expect to see a decent version of him here, but it feels like he is almost at the end of his career. | |||||
Ismael Bonfim | 7600 | Axel Sola | Somewhat-Risky | 163 | 275.0 |
Bonfim is well-rounded, but he is a little behind Sola. Cardio is his best weapon, but if he won't push a pace, that doesn't really matter. | |||||
Steve Erceg | 8200 | Ramazan Temirov | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | 400.0 |
Erceg is much taller and has a reach advantage, but he is giving up a power advantage. He needs to keep distance early on to wear Ramazan down a little bit before engaging. | |||||
Paydown Fighters
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Thomas Petersen | 7400 | Valter Walker | Somewhat-Risky | 140 | 350.0 |
At his best, he can dominate this fight by getting top position using his wrestling. This is close to a pick'em fight, and with fighters only a few hundred cheaper than him being priced at +250, he is a strong value play. | |||||
Damian Rzepecki | 7000 | Magomed Zaynukov | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Zaynukov aka "John Pork" is a fan favorite, but this is a much closer fight than the line suggests. I expect this to be a competitive back-and-forth match, but both of these guys are very green, so it is tough to know what to expect. | |||||
Tyrell Fortune | 7200 | Rizvan Kuniev | Risky | 250 | 400.0 |
I'm not a fan of his, but this is heavyweight and that brings in volatility. There is a chance he can outmuscle Kuniev and find an early KO, but more than likely he gets outworked over 15 minutes. | |||||
Cody Gibson | 6900 | Abdul Hussein | Risky | 350 | 500.0 |
Gibson is old and slowing down. I don't like him this week, but he is facing an unknown prospect so this could be a chance for a vet lesson. I wish I had more conviction on this fight, but this is going to just be a stay away for me. | |||||
Brendson Ribeiro | 6500 | Magomed Tuchalov | Risky | 500 | 500.0 |
Riberio has power and size, so he could make this interesting, but I don't love his ability to take damage. He has a puncher's chance but not much more. | |||||
Wellington Turman | 6400 | Islam Dulatov | Risky | 500 | 600.0 |
We haven't seen Turman in years; this looks like the UFC is just bringing him out here to be fodder for a prospect. I won't be playing him this week. If he shows up in career-best form, he can win, but I doubt we see that. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Guskov, Temirov, Rzepecki, Peterson
Picks and Stats
Magomed Ankalaev | vs | Bogdan Guskov |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
21-2-1 | Record | 18-3-1 |
3 | Knockouts | 8 |
4 | Subs | |
-549 | Vegas Odds | 400 |
Steve Erceg | vs | Ramazan Temirov |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
14-4 | Record | 19-3 |
9 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
Islam Dulatov | vs | Wellington Turman |
$9,800 | DFS Salary | $6,400 |
12-1-0 | Record | 18-8-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 6 |
3 | Subs | 7 |
-800 | Vegas Odds | 500 |
Dustin Jacoby | vs | Muhammad Said |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
21-9-1 | Record | 9-0-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 11 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
-163 | Vegas Odds | 130 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio | vs | Sam Patterson |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
31-9-0 | Record | 14-3-1 |
8 | Knockouts | 10 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
350 | Vegas Odds | -500 |
0 | ||
Ismael Bonfim | vs | Axel Sola |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
20-6-0 | Record | 11-1-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
163 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Magomed Zaynukov | vs | Damien Rzepecki |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
8-0-0 | Record | 10-0-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 6 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-275 | Vegas Odds | 240 |
Rizvan Kuniev | vs | Tyrell Fortune |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
13-3-1 | Record | 18-3-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 10 |
5 | Subs | 0 |
-333 | Vegas Odds | 250 |
Abubakar Vagaev | vs | Saygid Izagakhmaev |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
24-4-0 | Record | 22-3-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
-275 | Vegas Odds | 210 |
Valter Walker | vs | Thomas Petersen |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
15-1-0 | Record | 11-4-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 3 |
2 | Subs | 5 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | 140 |
Magomed Tuchalov | vs | Brendson Ribeiro |
$9,700 | DFS Salary | $6,500 |
6-0-0 | Record | 17-10-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
-800 | Vegas Odds | 500 |
Nurullo Aliev | vs | Mike Davis |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
11-0-0 | Record | 12-3-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 8 |
8 | Subs | 2 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | 175 |
Cody Gibson | vs | Abdul Hussein |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
22-12-0 | Record | 15-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 6 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
350 | Vegas Odds | -500 |
