UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov takes place this weekend live from Abu Dhabi.  The main event features two men with title aspirations in 2027 as Ankalaev looks to reclaim the title after losing it to Pereira, and Guskov looks to get within one more win of a shot.  Guskov will be looking to march forward early and often, so look for this one to be intense from the opening bell.  As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights MMA Ownership

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov

9500/6700

-

Stackability: Low

-549/ 400

-225. /400.0

Bogdan steps in for a short-notice main event spot against former champion Magomed Ankalaev. Ankalaev has a "boring" style where he isn't really high volume or looking to take chances in the grappling, but Bogdan is going to go for it. Bogdan has limited cardio, so expect him to come out here and try to end this fight quickly. Bogdan is going to take chances, so he makes for a high-upside underdog. I think Ankalaev wins this fight, but Guskov is live for a KO after Ankalaev was just KO'd by Pereira.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Islam Dulatov

9800

Wellington Turman

Somewhat-Safe

-800 

-400. 

Dulatov averages around 8 significant strikes landed per minute and has two first-round UFC finishes. Turman hasn't fought in the UFC in over two years, so I won't be expecting much resistance from him.

Magomed Tuchalov

9700

Brendson Ribeiro

Somewhat-Safe

-800 

-400. 

This is more of a play against Ribeiro. Ribeiro has bad durability, which someone with Tuchalov's power can exploit. I expect this fight to be done in the first 7 minutes.

Sam Patterson

9200

Damian Rzepecki

Somewhat-Safe

-500 

-250. 

Patterson has much better submission skills and is going to be much quicker. He isn't as durable as the two higher priced fighters above him, but he should still be able to finish this fight in the first two rounds.

Valter Walker

8800

Thomas Petersen

Moderate

-175 

105.0 

He's known for his heel hook submissions, and this is where I started to get a little less confident this week. If Walker doesn't get the early submission, it is likely because he struggles with takedowns, which makes this fight 50/50. Due to his ability to end a fight early, he is high up on my list, but he isn't as technical as some of the other high-priced options.

Rizvan Kuniev

9000

Tyrell Fortune

Moderate

-333 

150.0 

Kuniev is taking a big step down here. He has more power, should be able to keep the fight where he wants it, and has decent cardio. I expect him to win this fight, but he isn't a lock to finish it, so his ceiling isn't as high as some others on the card.



 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Nurullo Aliev

8500

Mike Davis

Moderate

-225 

300.0 

The mid-range this week has a lot of question marks. Aliev looked career-best during his last fight, and if he uses his smothering grappling, he should be able to dominate. On the feet, this is a close fight, but his biggest advantage is on the ground.

Ramazan Temirov

8000

Steve Erceg

Moderate

-110 

175.0 

Temirov is coming off of a PED suspension, but if anyone is getting the finish in this fight, it is him. He has much better finishing ability and is the underdog in the fight, so that is a strong play on any card; add in his -110 line, and he should be a high-owned play.

Axel Sola

8600

Ismael Bonfim

Somewhat-Risky

-200 

130.0 

Sola is just a better version of Bonfim, at least when they are both fresh. If this gets into Round 3, I'm nervous Sola won't be able to keep up his pace, but he is a good price for how often he ends this fight in the first two rounds.

Mike Davis

7700

Nurullo Aliev

Somewhat-Risky

175 

240.0 

Davis has more KO power than Aliev, but he only fights once a year and sometimes comes out flat. I expect to see a decent version of him here, but it feels like he is almost at the end of his career. 

Ismael Bonfim

7600

Axel Sola

Somewhat-Risky

163 

275.0 

Bonfim is well-rounded, but he is a little behind Sola. Cardio is his best weapon, but if he won't push a pace, that doesn't really matter.

Steve Erceg

8200

Ramazan Temirov

Somewhat-Risky

-110 

400.0 

Erceg is much taller and has a reach advantage, but he is giving up a power advantage. He needs to keep distance early on to wear Ramazan down a little bit before engaging. 



 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Thomas Petersen

7400

Valter Walker

Somewhat-Risky

140 

350.0 

At his best, he can dominate this fight by getting top position using his wrestling. This is close to a pick'em fight, and with fighters only a few hundred cheaper than him being priced at +250, he is a strong value play.

Damian Rzepecki

7000

Magomed Zaynukov

Somewhat-Risky

#N/A

#N/A

Zaynukov aka "John Pork" is a fan favorite, but this is a much closer fight than the line suggests. I expect this to be a competitive back-and-forth match, but both of these guys are very green, so it is tough to know what to expect.

Tyrell Fortune

7200

Rizvan Kuniev

Risky

250 

400.0 

I'm not a fan of his, but this is heavyweight and that brings in volatility. There is a chance he can outmuscle Kuniev and find an early KO, but more than likely he gets outworked over 15 minutes.

Cody Gibson

6900

Abdul Hussein

Risky

350 

500.0 

Gibson is old and slowing down. I don't like him this week, but he is facing an unknown prospect so this could be a chance for a vet lesson. I wish I had more conviction on this fight, but this is going to just be a stay away for me.

Brendson Ribeiro

6500

Magomed Tuchalov

Risky

500 

500.0 

Riberio has power and size, so he could make this interesting, but I don't love his ability to take damage. He has a puncher's chance but not much more.

Wellington Turman

6400

Islam Dulatov

Risky

500 

600.0 

We haven't seen Turman in years; this looks like the UFC is just bringing him out here to be fodder for a prospect. I won't be playing him this week. If he shows up in career-best form, he can win, but I doubt we see that.

 

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Guskov, Temirov, Rzepecki, Peterson

Picks and Stats

   

Magomed Ankalaev

vs

Bogdan Guskov

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

21-2-1

Record

18-3-1

3

Knockouts

8

4

Subs

 

-549 

Vegas Odds

400 

   

Steve Erceg

vs

Ramazan Temirov

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

14-4

Record

19-3

9

Knockouts

6

0

Subs

0

-110 

Vegas Odds

-110 

   

Islam Dulatov

vs

Wellington Turman

$9,800

DFS Salary

$6,400

12-1-0

Record

18-8-0

13

Knockouts

6

3

Subs

7

-800 

Vegas Odds

500 

   

Dustin Jacoby

vs

Muhammad Said

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

21-9-1

Record

9-0-0

5

Knockouts

11

2

Subs

1

-163 

Vegas Odds

130 

   

Santiago Ponzinibbio

vs

Sam Patterson

$6,800

DFS Salary

$9,400

31-9-0

Record

14-3-1

8

Knockouts

10

3

Subs

1

350 

Vegas Odds

-500 

 

0

 

Ismael Bonfim

vs

Axel Sola

$7,600

DFS Salary

$8,600

20-6-0

Record

11-1-1

5

Knockouts

5

1

Subs

0

163 

Vegas Odds

-200 

   

Magomed Zaynukov

vs

Damien Rzepecki

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

8-0-0

Record

10-0-0

8

Knockouts

6

3

Subs

1

-275 

Vegas Odds

240 

   

Rizvan Kuniev

vs

Tyrell Fortune

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

13-3-1

Record

18-3-0

8

Knockouts

10

5

Subs

0

-333 

Vegas Odds

250 

   

Abubakar Vagaev

vs

Saygid Izagakhmaev

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

24-4-0

Record

22-3-0

7

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

4

-275 

Vegas Odds

210 

   

Valter Walker

vs

Thomas Petersen

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

15-1-0

Record

11-4-0

6

Knockouts

3

2

Subs

5

-175 

Vegas Odds

140 

   

Magomed Tuchalov

vs

Brendson Ribeiro

$9,700

DFS Salary

$6,500

6-0-0

Record

17-10-0

8

Knockouts

4

0

Subs

1

-800 

Vegas Odds

500 

   

Nurullo Aliev

vs

Mike Davis

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

11-0-0

Record

12-3-0

2

Knockouts

8

8

Subs

2

-225 

Vegas Odds

175 

   

Cody Gibson

vs

Abdul Hussein

$6,900

DFS Salary

$9,300

22-12-0

Record

15-2-0

6

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

1

350 

Vegas Odds

-500