UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Allen vs. Duncan Cheat Sheet, 10/10

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan

8500/7700

-

Stackability: Moderate

-125/ +105

140.0/200.0

This matchup is going to make waves in the Middleweight division for 2027.  Allen has the cardio and submission skills to drag this fight into deep waters, while CLD is going to look to get the fight done quickly using his powerful striking and footwork.  Both of these men have paths to winning the fight, but when someone has a cardio advantage in a five-round fight, I tend to lean that way, so I am backing Allen.  If I build ten lineups this week, I will likely have Allen in 6, and Duncan in about 3 of them, as both of them have high ceilings in these five-round main events.  My official pick will be Allen by submission.

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Julius Walker

9200

Gerald Meerschaert

Somewhat-Safe

-298

-200

Walker is a big favorite, but this week it is a lot of lower-level fighters in the high-priced range.  Walker has a losing record in the promotion, yet he comes in as a huge favorite. He has much better striking than Meerschaert, a reach advantage, and youth on his side.  Walker should be able to dictate where the fight takes place and win it convincingly.

Lupita Godinez

9000

Ketlen Souza

Somewhat-Safe

-238

200.0

Godinez has massive upside with her wrestling, so even in a decision she can score close to 100pts. Souza is very strong, but her technical wrestling is where she falls short.

Malcolm Wellmaker

8900

Otari Tanzilovi

Somewhat-Safe

-225

-163

Wellmaker has been overhyped since his debut, and his faltering as nearly a -700 favorite last time out showed he still has a lot to learn.  His power is on a different level compared to Otari, but he needs to keep this fight standing to have a chance, as Otari is going to be shooting takedowns from the opening bell.

Matheus Camilo

8800

Jai Herbert

Moderate

-185

-163

Camilo is younger, quicker, and has much better wrestling, but Herbert has the one-shot power.  Camilo should be able to land a bunch of takedowns on Herbert, but if this is a striking battle, this fight is closer to 50/50.

Felipe Franco

9300

Brendson Ribeiro

Moderate

-400

-225

Franco is probably the most likely high-priced fighter to win by finish, but I really just can’t trust him.  This is a fighter who gassed out on the Contender Series against a fighter who lost on Dana White’s Contender Series.  If he wins early, he scores huge, but this is such a low-level matchup that I can’t imagine betting on him at -400.

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Andre Fili

8600

Kai Kamaka III

Moderate

-142

Andre Fili

I wrote off Fili a few fights back, but he has looked pretty good lately.  He mixes in striking, wrestling, and submissions, so you never know what his game plan will be. Against Kamaka, I would assume he would have a heavy wrestling approach and should be able to win the fight.

Ismael Bonfim

8200

Francisco Prado

Somewhat-Risky

+100

140.0

He missed nearly 7lbs so this fight as of now is still on but it is questionable.  If he has that big of a weight advantage, he is either hurt or looking to gain an edge. For the time being, I think he was just trying to get a win, so I’m leaning towards playing him at low ownership in large tournaments.

Francisco Prado

8000

Ismael Bonfim

Somewhat-Risky

-120

200.0

He is younger than Bonfim and more durable. If Bonfim is really compromised, he could be able to dominate the fight the later that it goes with his ability to mix in wrestling and striking.

Melissa Gatto

8300

Ernesta Kareckaite

Somewhat-Risky

-120

450

She has a big wrestling advantage, but she doesn’t take well to getting hit.  Her last fight back was after a major two-year layoff, so even though she lost, she scored nearly 50 DraftKings points.  If she gets the win, she should be able to pay off her price.

Pay-Downs

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Kai Kamaka III

7600

Andre Fili

Somewhat-Risky

+120

200.0

Kamaka is going to want to turn this into a brawl.  He needs to keep it standing, and not a normal card; a +120 fighter for $7600 would get a ton of looks, but on this card, he is very similarly priced to other fighters in this range.

Niko Price

7500

Leon Shahbazyan

Somewhat-Risky

+125

250.0

Price is great at forcing chaos, and five years ago he dominated this fight.  He’ll have to watch out for the early submission threats, but if this gets into the later rounds, he should be able to take over the fight and find the late finish.

Jai Herbert

7400

Matheus Camilo

Risky

+154

250.0

He has reach and power, which at $7400 is more than enough to play him.  This is a step down in competition for a fighter who has been in there with the likes of Ilia Topuria, but his chin and lack of anything other than boxing make him an underdog and a tough click.  He is low volume, so he needs the finish to pay off the price.

Otari Tanzilovi

7300

Malcolm Wellmaker

Risky

+185

300.0

He has some power and is good at wrestling.  He won’t want to mix it up on the feet with Wellmaker, so expect him to shoot a bunch of takedowns.  Sportsbooks have him lined at around 2.5 takedowns, and as an underdog, that is more than enough to play him.  He can score 50+ in a decision loss if he gets his wrestling working.

Ketlen Souza

7200

Lupita Godinez

Risky

+195

300.0

She has raw power and is better at striking, but she always fights close.  She’ll land the bigger strikes while dealing with wrestling and lesser strikes coming back at her.  

Gerald Meerschaert

7000

Julius Walker

Risky

+240

350.0

He is submission or bust, but for 7k against an unproven fighter, I don’t hate the risk.

Brendan Allen

vs

Christian Leroy Duncan

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

27-7-0

Record

15-2-0

6

Knockouts

10

14

Subs

1

-125

Vegas Odds

+105

Matheus Camilo

vs

Jai Herbert

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

11-3-0

Record

14-6-1

5

Knockouts

7

3

Subs

2

-185

Vegas Odds

+154

Lupita Godinez

vs

Ketlen Souza

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

14-6-0

Record

17-6-0

2

Knockouts

6

4

Subs

3

-238

Vegas Odds

+195

Andre Fili

vs

Kai Kamaka III

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

25-14-0

Record

18-8-1

9

Knockouts

8

3

Subs

2

-142

Vegas Odds

+120

Malcolm Wellmaker

vs

Otari Tanzilovi

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

10-2-0

Record

10-2-0

6

Knockouts

7

2

Subs

1

-225

Vegas Odds

+185

Julius Walker

vs

Gerald Meerschaert

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

7-3-0

Record

37-22-0

4

Knockouts

8

2

Subs

20

-298

Vegas Odds

+240

Francisco Prado

vs

Ismael Bonfim

$8,000

DFS Salary

$8,200

12-5-0

Record

20-7-0

5

Knockouts

8

3

Subs

6

-120

Vegas Odds

+100

Niko Price

vs

Leon Shahbazyan

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,500

16-11-0

Record

12-5-0

10

Knockouts

6

2

Subs

3

+125

Vegas Odds

-150

Felipe Franco

vs

Brendson Ribeiro

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

11-2-0

Record

17-11-0

6

Knockouts

8

2

Subs

5

-340

Vegas Odds

+280

RJ Harris

vs

Allen Frye Jr.

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

6-0-0

Record

6-1-0

4

Knockouts

3

1

Subs

1

-340

Vegas Odds

+250

Daria Zhelezniakova

vs

Alice Pereira

$7,800

DFS Salary

$8,400

10-3-0

Record

7-1-0

3

Knockouts

3

2

Subs

2

+116

Vegas Odds

-149

Ernesta Kareckaite

vs

Melissa Gatto

$8,100

DFS Salary

$8,100

6-2-1

Record

9-3-2

2

Knockouts

3

1

Subs

2

-102

Vegas Odds

-124