UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Allen vs. Costa Cheat Sheet, 5/16
Get ready for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa this Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The action kicks off with the Prelims at 5:00 PM EST on Paramount+, followed by the high-stakes Main Card at 9:00 PM EST. This slate is headlined by a critical featherweight clash: veteran Arnold Allen looks to snap a recent skid and defend his ranking against the surging powerhouse Melquizael Costa. Both men are fighting for a definitive place in the top 10 as they eye a potential title shot in 2027.
In this guide, we break down the latest UFC odds, fighter stats, and expert UFC DFS picks to help you build winning DraftKings and MMA daily fantasy lineups. Whether you are looking for high-upside plays or safe cash game anchors, our matchup breakdowns cover the entire card. For real-time updates and full ownership breakdowns, head over to our MMA DFS ownership page or reach out to me directly on Discord and Twitter @MikeIannoneDFS.
Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups this Saturday!
Main Event Strategy: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa Analysis
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa | 8600/7600 | - | Stackability: Low | -138/ 110 | 200.0/350.0 |
Arnold Allen is coming off some tough losses but they have all been by decision against the best in the division; Max Holloway, Movsar Evloev, and Jean Silva. He has a power and a raw strength advantage in this matchup so he'll likely be the one dictating where the fight takes place. He isn't a high-volume striker so for DK pricing I don't love paying up for him. Costa is a rising prospect who has looked great recently, being the first man to KO Dan Ige, and a great submission win over Andre Fili. He isn't overly physical but every time out he looks "career best" so he is making improvements fight to fight. I believe Allen wins the fight, but for his price and how low he constantly scores on DK I don't want to really play him much so I'll probably fade him. I think for DK it is clear that Costa will be the higher owned fighter, and he makes a great play in cash games and tournaments. | |||||
Elite UFC DFS Picks: High-Salary & Expensive Fighters
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Malcolm Wellmaker | 9200 | Juan Diaz | Somewhat-Safe | -275 | -110. |
This week is one of the weirdest slates I can remember. Normally when we get some low-level fights, we see massive odds but this week we don't even have a fighter above -300 so take the ranges a little more loosely. Wellmaker has a ton of power and can end this fight early, but he has shown that he seems lost once the fight extends. I think he finds the R1 finish but if this goes more than five minutes it will be extremely greasy and he probably won't score well. | |||||
Tommy Gantt | 9100 | Artur Minev | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | |
Gantt is training with Daniel Cormier and his wrestling is some of the best we have seen in the UFC. He is still behind in other aspects of MMA but his opponent can't stop the takedowns he could score massively on DK. He's shown he is well rounded and working hard so I expect him to come out and be the best version of himself that we have seen. | |||||
Nicolle Caliari | 9000 | Shauna Bannon | Somewhat-Safe | -290 | 275.0 |
Caliari is a finisher and Bannon is someone who can be bullied around the cage. I don't love targeting expensive woman's MMA fights but this feels like a spot where Caliari can be the bully and score well. | |||||
Alice Ardelean | 8700 | Polyana Viana | Moderate | -200 | 300.0 |
This is similar to the Caliari fight. She should be advancing, keeping the fight where she wants it, and landing volume if Viana doesn't earn her respect. She has shown she can land 100+ significant strikes in a 3 round fight before and I don't think Viana will be able to deal with that volume. | |||||
Ivan Erslan | 8800 | Tuco Tokkos | Moderate | -175 | -105. |
This is a tossup at heavyweight, and while Erslan is going to be giving up a little bit in the wrestling department, he is good at getting back to his feet. His power is the great equalizer so he should be able to end the fight with just a few powerful punches. | |||||
Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks & Core Lineup Plays
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Modestas Bukauskas | 8300 | Rodolfo Bellato | Moderate | -333 | |
The biggest favorite on the slate costs $8300. Bukauskas is facing a late replacement in Christian Edwards, so he sees himself come in at -333 for only $8300. He is a low volume striker and he isn't very impressive but Edwards isn't some high-level prospect stepping in late notice so he should still have the clear advantages. He should win and at his price that is normally enough, but if this gets to a decision he may only score 70-80pts so he isn't a lock button for tournaments if you are making a bunch of teams. | |||||
Benardo Sopaj | 8400 | Timmy Cuamba | Moderate | -163 | 225.0 |
Sopaj is much faster than Cuamba, but he lacks cardio to keep up the pace for 15 minutes. He could finish this fight early which is rare for this price range, so I have him ranked highly. Also -160 for $8400 on a card with so few big favorites makes him a clear value play. | |||||
Daniel Santos | 8400 | Timmy Cuamba | Somewhat-Risky | -163 | 140.0 |
Santos throws a ton of volume between his wrestling and his striking which I don't think Choi will be able to keep up with. Choi is going to have some big shots but I don't think he'll have enough moments to sway the judges. | |||||
Khaos Williams | 8300 | Rodolfo Bellato | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | 175.0 |
Williams has had a tough run but he has the power to KO just about anyone. He looks to be taking this training camp more seriously. If he wins he is probably going to be the piece you need in tournament lines to hit a big score, I'm just not as confident in him getting the win as the others above him. | |||||
Jacqueline Cavalcanti | 8500 | Ketlen Vieira | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | 500.0 |
I'm torn on this fight. Cavalcanti is the rising prospect who has looked good in some wins, but she is facing off against a fighter who gave Kayla Harrison her toughest test in the UFC. This might be too big of a step up in competition for her, but if she does win she is going to land a ton of volume and score well. | |||||
Luis Gurule | 8000 | Daniel Barez | Somewhat-Risky | -138 | 275.0 |
Gurule has good power, and a good chance to finish this fight. He is a little worse than Khaos Williams in finishing ability but Barez isn't an opponent that should offer much back in return. His gas tank is a big red flag so he may burn out going for the finish but this fight should be a back and fourth entertaining fight on the feet. | |||||
Ketlen Vieira | 7700 | Jacqueline Cavalcanti | Risky | 140 | 450.0 |
Viera has one path to winning this fight and it is getting 8+ minutes of control time. She can wrestle, or just hold Cavalcanti against the cage but either way she has a clear way to win this fight. She is my highest rated dog play this week. | |||||
Best UFC DFS Value Plays: Top Paydown Fighters
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Tuco Tokkos | 7400 | Ivan Erslan | Somewhat-Risky | 140 | 350.0 |
He's got power and this is pretty much a tossup at heavyweight. His wrestling is better than Ivan's so he has multiple ways to win the fight. He is a great price for the +140 odds. | |||||
Cody Brundage | 7300 | Andre Petroski | Somewhat-Risky | 150 | 200.0 |
Brundage is always in close fights and Petroski is | |||||
Shauna Bannon | 7200 | Nicolle Caliari | Risky | 200 | 900.0 |
I don't like Bannon but the UFC seems to love her. She has some crafty submission skills so she could lock up something from bottom but I don't think she has the physicality to hang in this fight. | |||||
Polyana Viana | 7500 | Alice Ardelean | Risky | 163 | 300.0 |
Viana is another submission specialist who likely gets outmuscled. I don't love her ability to get up or get off the cage when pressured but she does have a decent chance to win inside the distance if she wins the fight. | |||||
Artur Minev | 7100 | Tommy Gantt | Risky | 175 | |
Minev and Gantt are both good prospects so while he is coming in on short notice, he is still a decent price. He likely gets taken down at times, and while his hands are great, he is better on the feet than Gantt. | |||||
Juan Diaz | #N/A | #N/A | Risky | 210 | 350.0 |
Diaz is tough and Wellmaker was outworked in his last fight so I could see it happening again. I don't love to try to pick on the biggest favorite on the card but most weeks +210 would be in the $7300 price range so you are getting a little discount on a fighter who has shown an ability to win a brawl. | |||||
UFC Fight Night DFS Sample Lineup: Allen vs. Costa DraftKings Picks
To help you build your winning roster for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, here is a sample DraftKings lineup utilizing the full $50,000 salary cap:
UFC DFS Underdog Picks: Top Live Dogs for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
- Melquizael Costa: $7,600, +110
- Ketlen Vieira: $7,700, +140
- Cody Brundage: $7,300, +150
- Dooho Choi: $7,800, +130
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa DFS Picks & Fighter Stats
Arnold Allen | vs | Melquizael Costa |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 20-4-0 | Record | Record: 26-7-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 9 |
4 | Subs | 8 |
-138 | Vegas Odds | 110 |
Dooho Choi | vs | Daniel Santos |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 16-4-1 | Record | Record: 14-2-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
130 | Vegas Odds | -163 |
Malcolm Wellmaker | vs | Juan Diaz |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 15-1-1 |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
-275 | Vegas Odds | 210 |
Modestas Bukauskas | vs | Christian Edwards |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 19-7-0 | Record | Record: 8-4-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-333 | Vegas Odds | 250 |
Timmy Cuamba | vs | Benardo Sopaj |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 7 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
130 | Vegas Odds | -163 |
0 | ||
Nikolay Veretennikov | vs | Khaos Williams |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 15-5-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
Tuco Tokkos | vs | Ivan Erslan |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 11-5-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 (1 NC) |
6 | Knockouts | 10 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
140 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
Tommy Gantt | vs | Artur Minev |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 11-0-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 4 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | 175 |
Ketlen Vieira | vs | Jacqueline Cavalcanti |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 3 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
140 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
Cody Brundage | vs | Andre Petroski |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 11-9-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 4 |
150 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Alice Ardelean | vs | Polyana Viana |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 11-7-0 | Record | Record: 13-8-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
4 | Subs | 8 |
-200 | Vegas Odds | 163 |
Daniel Barez | vs | Luis Gurule |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 17-7-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 5 |
6 | Subs | 1 |
110 | Vegas Odds | -138 |
Shauna Bannon | vs | Nicolle Caliari |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 8-4-0 | Record | Record: 8-4-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
200 | Vegas Odds | -250 |