UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer takes place this Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.  The card kicks off with the Prelims at 5:00 PM EST on Paramount+, followed by the Main Card at 8:00 PM on Paramount+.  This is a massive fight for both of these men as former champion Israel Adesanya looks to get back on track against rising prospect Joe Pyfer.  Adesanya has struggled against the current top 5 of the division, but if he can keep this at distance, he could get back on track here.  Pyfer winning by KO shakes up the top 5 and adds a new challenger to the title picture at Middleweight.  As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer

8500/7700

-

Stackability: Low

-163/ 130

275.0/120.0

This is a really tough main event to pin down a winner. Adesanya was one of the top pound for pound fighters in the UFC for years but has been losing lately. He is losing to the top end of the division and his fights are very competitive until he gets caught. Pyfer has a ton of power but he hasn't proven he can carry that into Round 3/4/5. If Adesanya can make Pyfer work he could take over the fight late, but Pyfer has the clear power advantage and an aging Izzy might be in trouble if he gets caught early. I sadly think Pyfer gets the win this week.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Alexia Thainara

9600

Bruna Brasil

Somewhat-Safe

-1,000

150

Thainara has one career loss but it is to Brasil when she was just 21 years old. This is a revenge spot where Thainara has made a ton of improvements and is going to bully Brasil around the cage. I see a late second round finish by submission.

Michael Chiesa

9500

Niko Price

Somewhat-Safe

-901 

-188. 

He is fighting his retirement fight in front of his hometown and while I normally don't target fighters who are retiring, Price was KO'd just 7 weeks ago. Chiesa probably only needs one takedown to win this fight and get the submission.

Navajo Stirling

9400

Bruno Lopes

Somewhat-Safe

-549 

-275. 

Stirling is a decent prospect and has shown he can strike and wrestle a little bit. Lopes has been a disappointment in the UFC. Striling is a step down in quality compared to Chiesa and Thainara but he could also win this fight by a quick KO so his ceiling is just as high.

Chase Hooper

8900

Lance Gibson Jr.

Moderate

-275 

110.0 

Hooper is always live for a huge score because when he can outwrestle his opponent, he gets control time and looks for a ton of damage on the ground. Gibson might be hard to catch but if he gets taken down, I expect Hooper to dominate the rest of the round.

Terrance McKinney

8700

Kyle Nelson

Moderate

-250

240

McKinney is always the est ceiling play on the slate since he either wins in Round 1 or he gets taken out in the first 7 minutes. This fight is a must play in tournaments.




 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Tyrell Fortune

8300

Marcin Tybura

Moderate

-138 

175.0 

This is a weird range this week. Fortune is a Bellator and PFL veteran so he has some experience. If he wins this fight, it is almost guaranteed it will be in Round 1. I will look to bet Tybura live if he survives the first round but anytime you get a mid-priced fighter who has a ceiling this high you have to consider him in GPPs.

Yousri Belgaroui

8000

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Moderate

-105 

200.0 

Belgaroui has the more refined striking and he should have enough takedown defense from training with Alex Pereira and Glover Texeira. If this gets to Round 2, he should be able to dominate this fight.

Ricky Simon

8600

Adrian Yanez

Somewhat-Risky

-150 

400.0 

Simon at his prime was a good wrestler who pushed a high pace, and that version of Simon dominates Yanez on the ground. I'm concerned he won't look to wrestle, and if this stays at boxing range it’s a 50/50 fight or Yanez might be the favorite to win it.

Gabriella Fernandes

8400

Casey O'Neill

Somewhat-Risky

-125 

240.0 

Fernandes hits hard so she's one of the few women with finishing upside. While O'Neill has put up volume in the past, she is so inactive that I don't know what version of her we see here. This is more of a shot that O'Neill isn't going to show up at her best than anything else. 

Mansur Abdul-Malik

8200

Yousri Belgaroui

Somewhat-Risky

-120 

140.0 

He's powerful, he has a wrestling background, but he just doesn't do enough. Unless he decides to shoot 5+ takedowns, I don't see how he scores well without a finish. At his price even a 3rd Round finish might be enough to make the optimal lineup.

Marcin Tybura

7900

Tyrell Fortune

Somewhat-Risky

110 

225

Tybura at his prime wins this fight but he is over 40 years old so his speed and durability are leaving him. If he gets an early takedown he could win this fight, or if he just extends it into the second round, he should be able to takeover. In Round 1 he is going to be at a major speed disadvantage.

Adrian Yanez

7600

Ricky Simon

Risky

120 

225.0 

Yanez at his best can put up 100+ significant strikes so if Ricky doesn't wrestle, he has a clear path to out hustling him. This is a good matchup that is really going to come down to the fight IQ of the fighters.

      




 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Kyle Nelson

7500

Terrance McKinney

Somewhat-Risky

140 

163.0 

Nelson has a great matchup to set himself up for a high DK score. He is coming off a career best win against Matt Frevola, so if he can use that momentum to avoid McKinney's power early, he should be able to take over late.

Alexa Grasso

7400

Maycee Barber

Somewhat-Risky

150 

900.0 

Grasso at her best can put up 30+ significant strikes per round, and in a close fight she may be able to pay off her price. She looked disinterested in her last fight so if she comes out flat again, she won't be able to keep this fight competitive.

Lance Gibson Jr.

7300

Chase Hooper

Risky

225

450

Gibson gave Bobby Green a tough go, and if this stays standing it will be a close fight. Hooper can be dominated on the feet if the takedowns don't come so there is a chance Lance runs away with the fight.

Julian Erosa

7200

Lerryan Douglas

Risky

250 

380 

Erosa is all volume and durability so if he can survive, he can win. He is a weird fighter because if he gets rocked and survives, he normally becomes extremely durable. He also has some really good front chokes that could end this fight quickly.

Tofiq Musayev

7000

Ignacio Bahamondes

Risky

250 

400.0 

Tofiq is jacked, and although they are both strikers, if he decides to wrestle, he might be able to have success. If he wants to strike with Ignacio he probably gets flatlined.

Niko Price

6700

Michael Chiesa

Risky

550 

800.0 

He just got knocked out recently, I hate that he is fighting again. He is a legend and always is involved in fun fights but his time is past him.

Bruno Lopes

6800

Navajo Stirling

Risky

400 

600.0 

He lost as a -600 favorite over a fighter that hasn't had much UFC success. This is the UFC setting up Striling to get a highlight.


 

 

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Pyfer, Erosa, Nelson, Tybura

Picks and Stats

   

Israel Adesanya

vs

Joe Pyfer

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 24-5-0 

Record

Record: 15-3-0 

16

Knockouts

9

0

Subs

4

-163 

Vegas Odds

130 

   

Alexa Grasso

vs

Maycee Barber

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

Record: 16-5-1 

Record

Record: 15-2-0 

4

Knockouts

6

2

Subs

2

150 

Vegas Odds

-188 

   

Michael Chiesa

vs

Niko Price

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

Record: 19-7-0 

Record

Record: 16-10-0 (2 NC) 

0

Knockouts

10

12

Subs

3

-901 

Vegas Odds

550 

   

Julian Erosa

vs

Lerryan Douglas

$7,200

DFS Salary

$9,000

Record: 31-13-0 

Record

Record: 13-5-0 

12

Knockouts

7

14

Subs

3

250 

Vegas Odds

-333 

   

Mansur Abdul-Malik

vs

Yousri Belgaroui

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 9-0-1 

Record

Record: 9-3-0 

7

Knockouts

7

2

Subs

0

-120 

Vegas Odds

-105 

 

0

 

Terrance McKinney

vs

Kyle Nelson

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

Record: 17-8-0 

Record

Record: 17-6-1 

8

Knockouts

6

9

Subs

4

-175 

Vegas Odds

140 

   

Ignacio Bahamondes

vs

Tofiq Musayev

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

Record: 17-6-0 

Record

Record: 22-6-0 

11

Knockouts

18

2

Subs

2

-333 

Vegas Odds

250 

   

Chase Hooper

vs

Lance Gibson Jr.

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

Record: 16-4-1 

Record

Record: 9-2-0 

4

Knockouts

4

8

Subs

3

-275 

Vegas Odds

225

   

Marcin Tybura

vs

Tyrell Fortune

$7,900

DFS Salary

$8,300

Record: 27-10-0 

Record

Record: 17-3-0 (2 NC) 

10

Knockouts

11

7

Subs

1

110 

Vegas Odds

-138 

   

Casey O'Neill

vs

Gabriella Fernandes

$7,800

DFS Salary

$8,400

Record: 10-2-0 

Record

Record: 11-3-0 

3

Knockouts

3

2

Subs

3

105

Vegas Odds

-125 

   

Navajo Stirling

vs

Bruno Lopes

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,800

Record: 8-0-0 

Record

Record: 14-2-0 

4

Knockouts

6

0

Subs

5

-549 

Vegas Odds

400 

   

Ricky Simon

vs

Adrian Yanez

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 22-7-0 

Record

Record: 17-6-0 

7

Knockouts

11

4

Subs

2

-150 

Vegas Odds

120 

   

Alexis Thainara

vs

Bruna Brasil

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,600

Record: 13-1-0 

Record

Record: 11-6-1 

0

Knockouts

3

8

Subs

2

-500

Vegas Odds

500 

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