UFC DFS Picks & Lineups: Muhammad vs Della Maddalena Cheat Sheet, 5/9

UFC 315: Muhammad vs Della Maddalena takes place this Saturday live from Quebec, Canada.  The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:30 PM EST on ESPN+/Disney+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00 on ESPN+/Disney+ and the Main Card at 10:00 PM on ESPN+ PPV.  The Main Event features Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad looking to make his title defense against Jack Della Maddalena in a fight that matches up a great wrestler vs one of the division's best boxers.  It should be an action-packed card from start to finish.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 315: Muhammad vs Della Maddalena 

A clear style clash in the main event this week as the champion Belal Muhammad usually uses his wrestling, while JDM likes to use his boxing. Belal has talked about not using his wrestling because he thinks he can win the fight on the feet, but he's smarter than that, so I expect him to mix in the takedowns. If I knew for a fact Belal was going to wrestle, I would make him closer to a -300 favorite, and I am betting on him to get it done this week, likely in a decision. I'll be playing both of these fighters across my GPPs, but for single-entry lineups, I will be using Belal.

Expensive Fighters

He is the clear top-end big this week, but you are paying full price for it with him being $9700 and no one else above $9200. Kyle is tough, but Benoit is more durable, the better wrestler, and probably the more powerful striker. I think BSD gets it done by sub.

Navajo is the better striker, and Ivan has shown himself to be a defensive liability in the cage. I don't love having a high-priced fighter who doesn't wrestle and won't land 100+ significant strikes in a decision, but he is likely to get the finish, and it probably comes in the first two rounds.

Andrade is the Kevin Holland of women's MMA. Andrade at 115 lbs. is a title contender, but at 125 lbs. she is always outmuscled. Jasmine is going to look to wrestle, and her ground and pound is vicious, so she might eventually get Andrade out of there. Jasmine in a decision could score 100+, so she is safer than some of these other fighters, but she doesn't have as good of a chance to finish the fight.

Silva could dominate this fight on the ground, but I think she wins it however she wants. There is a big drop-off after Jasmine in the Expensive range, but Natalia is still well-rounded and could mix in striking with wrestling to score well.

Malott has a higher ceiling than Silva because he could just take down Radtke and tap him out in Round 1, but he has a more dangerous striker throwing back at him. His ITD odds make him a great GPP play, but at only -166 for $8900, I don't expect him to be overly owned.

Mid-Range Fighters

This fight is going to be the second-highest owned fight on the card, and for DraftKings, I'm going with the champ. Valentina is more likely to wrestle, and although Manon has fought wrestlers in the past, they aren't as good as Valentina. Even in a loss, I could see Valentina scoring 50-60 DK points.

She averages about 150 significant strikes landed per 25 minutes of cage time so even in a decision, she could score around 100 pts. I think this fight goes to decision, so while I wouldn't stack it in a GPP, I think it is the cash game stack of the week. I'm leaning towards Valentina being able to get her wrestling going, but if this stays standing, Manon should be able to pick her apart with her longer reach.

I am once again backing Ion Cutelaba. I am a sucker for his style because we know he can wrestle and has power in his hands. At his best, he beats Khalil Rountree, but he also has some bad losses on his resume. Bukauskas has been fighting the lowest level the UFC offers, and anytime he attempts to step up, he has had trouble. Cutelaba should be able to get the fight where he wants it, and he could even outwork Bukauskas if he needed to. 

This is a tough fight because Silva looked disinterested, and Barriault's chin in the last few fights has been cracked. I think Barriault is able to survive the early parts of the fight, and if he gets to R2/3, he should be able to take over, even mixing in the wrestling if he wants.

Santos missed weight again, even after moving up a weight class, so I don't know where his head is. Lee can get swarmed and overwhelmed early, but the later the fight goes, the more he should be able to settle in and get this win. He can wrestle a little bit, but I expect most of it to take place on the feet.

Bezkat's UFC highlight is getting a knockdown in a loss, so we don't really know how he is going to deal with better competition. Katona is tough, mixes in wrestling and striking, and has cardio to go the full 15 minutes, so any weakness in Bekzat's game could be exposed. Katona doesn't finish his opponents, so he'll need other underdogs to lose to get to the optimal lineup, so even at his good odds, I'll probably be underweight. 

I was torn between Barriault and Bukauskas for this spot, but they are very similar. Both of them have the power to win by KO, but they will likely lose the minutes of the fight. I'm leaning towards Silva because Barriault has been KO'd in back-to-back fights, and I don't think that is something that comes back in an aging fighter.
 

Paydown Fighters

Radtke hits hard, and is going to bring the fight to Malott. If he avoids the takedown, he can dominate this fight, but we haven't seen him have to deal with wrestling in his UFC career yet. Malott is talented, but we saw him gas out hard against Magny and then fight timidly because he was nervous of gassing out. 

Aldo looked terrible on the scale, so I'm banking on his age catching up to him. Zahabi has good boxing, but in a striking match, this could go either way. I expect low volume, so outside of a finish, he won't score well.

Two big guys throwing heavy hands, so a KO either way wouldn't surprise me. Erslan has bad striking defense, but in this price range, I focus on upside, and he does have the ability to end this fight if he lands clean.

Grasso has great boxing and can get submissions if they are given to her, but she is going to be behind in terms of power in this matchup. She'll really need to out volume Silva because if the striking numbers are close, she is going to lose the battle.

Andrade at 125 lbs isn't the same as at 115 lbs, but she still has power. She is basically KO or bust, which is rare for women's MMA, but if she can keep it standing, she can definitely win this fight.

He's coming in on short notice, and it's tough to see a path to victory for him. Saint Denis has been finished, but it involved fighters landing more damage than I think Prepolec is able to deal. I won't be playing him this week.

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Della Maddalena, Shevchenko, Radtke, Lee

Picks and Stats