UFC 330: Makhachev vs Garry takes place this weekend on Saturday at 5:00 PM, live from Philadelphia.  Islam looks to solidify himself as one of the best to ever do it, as a continued title run in a second division will land him amongst the greats.  Garry is a polarizing figure in the MMA community, but you can’t deny his talent. This should be an action-packed fight to headline a great card. As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 330: Makhachev vs Garry

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry

9200/7000

-

Stackability: Low

-333/ 250

150.0/700.0

One of the best matchups at 170lbs takes place this weekend as the top wrestler in the division takes on one of the best strikers. Islam has been a dominant force for years in both the lightweight and welterweight divisions, specifically due to his chain wrestling and cardio. Garry has precise boxing and size that could give Islam trouble, as he hasn't faced a striker of this size yet. I expect Islam to be able to get some takedowns, but whenever this is on the feet, it should be Garry's fight to win. I'll be playing Islam in most of my lineups this weekend, but I'm making sure to include Garry in some as well. I'll also be looking at long-shot bets on Garry by KO because if someone like Alexander Volkanovski can rock Islam, Garry will be able to KO him if he is given enough time on the feet to land clean.



 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Myktybek Orolbai

9600

Jeremiah Wells

Somewhat-Safe

-1000

-200

Orolbai's takedown game is extremely strong; paired with his great win probability and finishing ability, he is a lock for the top play on this week's slate.

Mackenzie Dern

9000

Gillian Robertson

Somewhat-Safe

-165

120.0 

She isn't great value for her price, but she has five rounds to work with, so her floor is really helped out in a win. If she can use her wrestling and grappling to rack up control time, she can score 120+ pts.

Esteban Ribovics

9400

Edson Barboza

Somewhat-Safe

-649 

-200. 

Ribovics throws a ton of volume, and at one point in his career, Barboza would have had enough power and quickness to keep him away, but at this point in his career, Ribovics should find a second-round finish.

Mansur Abdul-Malik

9500

Dustin Stoltzfus

Moderate

-649 

-150. 

He has a ton of power, but his volume is extremely low. If he doesn't get a Round 1 finish, he won't score well.

Donte Johnson

8800

Eric McConico

Moderate

-275 

-120. 

Johnson has a ton of power, and McConico has been chinned in the past. He doesn't throw much volume, similar to Abdul-Malik, but he does have cardio to keep fighting if the fight extends.



 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Jalin Turner

8600

Kaue Fernandes

Moderate

-163 

-110. 

Turner has a lot of power, and his speed is off the charts. In his wins, he routinely scores 100+ points, but he has had some tough losses. This is a major step back in competition for him, so hopefully he can continue his resurgence with an early KO.

Tresean Gore

8400

Vicente Luque

Moderate

-120 

130.0 

Gore has power, and Luque's durability is fading. This is similar to the Barboza fight, but Gore is way less polished than Ribovics and won't be able to land 120+ significant strikes in a decision.

Ramiz Brahimaj

8200

Neil Magny

Somewhat-Risky

-150 

120.0 

He has all of the finishing upside against an aging Magny. I expect him to land some big shots early, but if the fight gets into the third round, he'll likely struggle due to his poor cardio. High ceiling, low floor play.

Kaue Fernandes

7600

Jalin Turner

Somewhat-Risky

130 

175.0 

His leg kicks are very hard, but he is taking a major step up in competition here. I don't think he has a diverse enough arsenal to win this fight, but if he can prolong the fight, he can be competitive in the later rounds.

Vicente Luque

7800

Tresean Gore

Somewhat-Risky

100 

200

His submission game is very good, and at one point he would have landed 100+ significant strikes in this matchup and dominated the later rounds. This version of Luque has lost durability, and he doesn't have the cardio to keep a pace for fifteen minutes. He still may be the more talented fighter even at his age.

Neil Magny

8000

Ramiz Brahimaj

Somewhat-Risky

120 

275.0 

Magny's only real path to winning is to prolong the fight and win the last 1.5 rounds. He doesn't have power, and his durability is starting to go. He has the lowest floor of all of the fighters in this range.



 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Gillian Robertson

7200

Mackenzie Dern

Somewhat-Risky

175 

600.0 

Robertson has five rounds to work with in her title fight. She has better wrestling, but her submission game isn't as strong. If she can maintain positions, she can win and score well, but she'll need to be very careful on the ground.

Chidi Njokuani

7300

Joel Alvarez

Somewhat-Risky

250 

400.0 

Chidi is the first opponent Alvarez has fought that is a similar size, so he might be able to match his physicality. This fight shouldn't last long, so either fighter has a ton of upside, but Chidi's floor is near zero.

Charles Johnson

6900

Eduardo Henrique

Risky

-120

250

Johnson is getting a late replacement, so at his low price he is actually the favorite to win the fight. He should win this fight, but his upside isn't as high as Robertson or Chidi. He is the most likely underdog to win, so I expect ownership of 50%+, so it will be tough to make a unique lineup with him. 

Rafael Tobias

7100

Lucas Fernando

Risky

210 

400.0 

He has a nice mix of submissions and knockouts, so he's pretty well-rounded. He wasn't overly impressive in his UFC debut, but he will likely be improving after dropping a decision.

Dustin Stoltzfus

$6,600

Myktybek Orolbai

Risky

450 

600.0 

If this gets to a decision, Stoltzfus will likely have outworked Mansur. He doesn't have the power to get into a brawl, but he has more volume and has more experience. He needs to survive round 1, and then this will be a pretty even fight.

Edson Barboza

$6,700

Esteban Ribovics

Risky

450 

600.0 

At his best, he dominates this fight, but that version of Barboza has been gone for a while. His kicks are really strong, so he could land a one-shot KO, but more than likely his speed is gone, and he gets KO'd due to the overwhelming volume coming back at him.

 

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Garry, Robertson, Johnson, Luque

Picks and Stats

   

Islam Makhachev

vs

Ian Machado Garry

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

28-1-0

Record

17-1-0

5

Knockouts

7

13

Subs

1

-333 

Vegas Odds

250 

   

Mackenzie Dern

vs

Gillian Robertson

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

16-5-0

Record

17-8-0

0

Knockouts

3

8

Subs

9

-195

Vegas Odds

175 

   

Jalin Turner

vs

Kaue Fernandes

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

15-9-0

Record

11-2-0

11

Knockouts

6

4

Subs

2

-163 

Vegas Odds

130 

   

Mansur Abdul-Malik

vs

Dustin Stoltzfus

$9,500

DFS Salary

$8,800

9-1-1

Record

16-8-0

7

Knockouts

3

2

Subs

6

-649 

Vegas Odds

450 

   

Edson Barboza

vs

Esteban Ribovics

$6,800

DFS Salary

$9,400

24-14-0

Record

15-3-0

14

Knockouts

7

1

Subs

5

450 

Vegas Odds

-649 

 

0

 

Chidi Njokuani

vs

Joel Alvarez

$7,300

DFS Salary

$8,900

25-12-0

Record

23-4-0

15

Knockouts

5

1

Subs

17

250 

Vegas Odds

-333 

   

Charles Johnson

vs

Eduardo Chapolin

$6,900

DFS Salary

$7.900

19-9-0

Record

15-2-0

8

Knockouts

7

3

Subs

4

-120

Vegas Odds

100

   

Donte Johnson

vs

Eric McConico

$6,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

8-0-0

Record

11-4-1

6

Knockouts

4

1

Subs

3

-275 

Vegas Odds

210 

   

Vicente Luque

vs

Tresean Gore

$6,900

DFS Salary

$8,400

24-12-1

Record

7-4-0

11

Knockouts

1

10

Subs

4

100 

Vegas Odds

-120 

   

Rafael Tobias

vs

Lucas Fernando

$7,100

DFS Salary

$9,100

14-2-0

Record

13-3-0

5

Knockouts

7

6

Subs

2

210 

Vegas Odds

-275 

   

Neil Magny

vs

Ramiz Brahimaj

$8,000

DFS Salary

$8,200

31-15-0

Record

13-6-0

9

Knockouts

1

5

Subs

12

120 

Vegas Odds

-150 

   

Jeremiah Wells

vs

Myktybek Orolbai

$6,600

DFS Salary

$9,600

13-4-1

Record

16-2-1

5

Knockouts

7

4

Subs

6

600 

Vegas Odds

-1000