UFC 326 DFS Picks & Lineups: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 Cheat Sheet, 3/7

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira

8800/7400

-

Stackability: Low

-225/ 175

110.0/225.0

This is a matchup between some of the fan favorites in the UFC for the BMF belt. Max Holloway has the most significant strikes landed in UFC history and it isn't even close, while Charles Oliveira has the most finishes in UFC history. Max is going to look to keep it standing and if he does, he should be able to dictate the pace and win the fight. Charles is more well-rounded and has more one punch power than Holloway so he'll be able to turn the tide of the fight in one punch or submission attempt if he can get it to the ground. I'm betting Max to get the KO here but these are two fan favorites at the highest level of the sport, and either one of them makes for a great play on DK. I wouldn't stack the fight in tournaments because if Max wins, I don't think Charles is going to score well, and if Charles wins it'll likely be by the finish.

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Donte Johnson

9500

Cody Brundage

Somewhat-Safe

-800 

200.0 

Cody Brundage is back! Johnson has power, can wrestle, and should be able to dominate this fight. Brundage is a wrestler too so he might be able to keep it standing but even if he does, he is going to end up KO'd. 

Rafael Tobias

9000

Diyar Nurgozhay

Somewhat-Safe

-275 

-105. 

Dinir doesn't have the ability to take a punch so this is another play where I am fading the opponent more than picking Tobias. If Tobias’ lands clean, he should be able to end this fight fairly quickly.

Luke Fernandez

8900

Rodolfo Bellato

Somewhat-Safe

-225 

-163. 

Fernandez has power, and although Bellato hasn't been KO'd too often he has been knocked down or wobbled a ton. Fernandez is one of the lesser-known fighters on this card, but this is a clear spot for him to make a statement with the early KO.

Su Sumudaerji

9100

Jesus Aguilar

Moderate

-225 

-163. 

Su has way more talent on the feet and he has a ton of power but Jesus is someone who is tough to get out of there. I was between this and Caio Borralho but in terms of finishing ability I am leaning towards Su having a better chance at finding the KO.

Moderate

-250

240

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Raul Rosas Jr.

8700

Rob Font

Moderate

-225 

225.0 

This is a weird range this week where I am taking a lot of underdogs, but one of the favorites I am targeting is Rosas. He has a huge advantage on the ground, and an aging opponent in front of him. On the feet he is going to get dominated, but he should be able to get at least 2-3 takedowns and win the early portions of this fight. I am betting him to win by submission, and if that hits, he'll likely be on the optimal lineup with a score in the 100s.

Michael Johnson

8200

Drew Dober

Moderate

-120 

200.0 

Every fight in this range is tightly contested, and this one is no different. Johnson has more speed, and although both of them are aging and have shown their durability is fading, I think Johnson's skill set is better for this fight. Dober has used his durability to go into the pocket and really just trust his chin; he barely evades 50% of strikes that are thrown at him. Johnson is going to hit him at some point and when he does, I could see him wobbling Dober or at least landing more volume.

Brunno Ferreira

7600

Gregory Rodrigues

Somewhat-Risky

140 

225.0 

This is a rematch that Ferreira won the first one by KO, and I expect this to be a similar fight. Rodrigues wears damage terribly, and although I still think Brunno has cardio issues he is really good at forcing fighters to go at his pace. I don't know if he gets the KO win again, but he should be able to have the bigger moments and win this fight.

Cody Durden

7800

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Somewhat-Risky

110 

240.0 

Durden always wins the first round in his fights by getting takedowns and Tumendemberel normally struggles with them early. I want to win a tournament so targeting someone who should be able to win Round 1 and possibly end the fight in it is always going to be on my radar, especially as the underdog.

Cody Garbrandt

7900

Xiao Long

Somewhat-Risky

120 

240.0 

This is more me just hoping that Garbrandt still has something left from his championship form. I don't like having to worry about the whole fight if he is going to get clipped, but this is a massive step back in competition for him similar to King Green last week. He is very low volume so in a win that goes to decision he may only score 60.

Drew Dober

8000

Somewhat-Risky

-105 

150.0 

Dober has a ton of power, and although I think he is going to lose this fight he has the upside that you want at his price. Johnson is someone who has literally out struck his opponent 26-1 in Round 1 and came out and lost by submission less than 30 seconds into Round 2, so if anyone can slip up at any time it is Michael Johnson.

Ricky Turcios

7700

Alberto Montes

Risky

150 

450.0 

Turcios works hard in his fights and he pushes at a pace that makes most uncomfortable. He'll probably look to mix in some wrestling, but he is a nut job so I can't really trust him even though skill for skill I think he wins this fight as an underdog.

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Rob Font

7500

Raul Rosas Jr.

Somewhat-Risky

175 

400.0 

Font is a talented fighter, but out of the fighters in this range he and De Ridder are facing the toughest competition. He has a clear striking advantage so at his price that is enough to make him a good play.

Reinier de Ridder

7000

Caio Borralho

Somewhat-Risky

210 

500.0 

He has better submission skills but he is lacking in the striking and wrestling matchups. Caio can be low volume so there is a chance he just does more on the feet to get the win. 

Rodolfo Bellato

7300

Luke Fernandez

Risky

175 

300.0 

From here down most of these fighters are very untrustworthy. Bellato has talent but is missing durability. At the bigger weight classes durability is a necessity unless you have one punch KO power which isn't really Bellato's game.

Diyar Nurgozhay

7200

Rafael Tobias

Risky

175 

275.0 

He gives up submissions in most of his fights but he does have some decent power. Tobias is making his UFC debut so if the bright lights get to him, we could see an upset.

Jesus Aguilar

7100

Sumudaerji

Risky

200 

275.0 

Low volume, with a little wrestling but the biggest problem is a 10-inch reach advantage for Su. I don't see how he keeps this competitive on the feet unless Su completely gasses out. If he can get his wrestling going maybe he has a chance but he'll have to do more than just hold Su down since on the feet Su should be landing with power.

Cody Brundage

6900

JeongYeong Lee

Risky

210 

400.0 

Brundage was a decent wrestler, but he doesn't seem like he is here for more than anything other than collecting a paycheck. He fought about two months ago and I don't know how he is getting back in the cage already. I'm expecting Johnson to make an early statement.

6700

Donte Johnson

Risky

500 

500.0 

Max Holloway

vs

Charles Oliveira

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

Record: 27-8-0 

Record

Record: 36-11-0 (1 NC) 

12

Knockouts

10

2

Subs

22

-225 

Vegas Odds

175 

Caio Borralho

vs

Reinier de Ridder

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

Record: 17-2-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 21-3-0 

5

Knockouts

4

4

Subs

14

-275 

Vegas Odds

210 

Rob Font

vs

Raul Rosas Jr.

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

Record: 22-9-0 

Record

Record: 11-1-0 

9

Knockouts

2

4

Subs

6

175 

Vegas Odds

-225 

Drew Dober

vs

Michael Johnson

$8,000

DFS Salary

$8,200

Record: 28-15-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 25-19-0 

12

Knockouts

10

9

Subs

2

-105 

Vegas Odds

-120 

Gregory Rodrigues

vs

Brunno Ferreira

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 18-6-0 

Record

Record: 15-2-0 

10

Knockouts

9

4

Subs

5

-175 

Vegas Odds

140 

0

Cody Garbrandt

vs

Xiao Long

$7,900

DFS Salary

$8,300

Record: 14-7-0 

Record

Record: 27-10-0 

11

Knockouts

5

0

Subs

9

120 

Vegas Odds

-150 

Donte Johnson

vs

Cody Brundage

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

Record: 7-0-0 

Record

Record: 11-8-1 (1 NC) 

6

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

3

-800 

Vegas Odds

500 

Ricky Turcios

vs

Alberto Montes

$7,700

DFS Salary

$8,500

Record: 13-5-0 

Record

Record: 11-1-0 

3

Knockouts

1

1

Subs

6

150 

Vegas Odds

-188 

Cody Durden

vs

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

$7,800

DFS Salary

$8,400

Record: 17-9-1 

Record

Record: 9-1-0 

6

Knockouts

2

6

Subs

6

110 

Vegas Odds

-138 

Sumudaerji

vs

Jesus Aguilar

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

Record: 18-7-0 

Record

Record: 12-3-0 

13

Knockouts

1

1

Subs

7

-250 

Vegas Odds

200 

Rafael Tobias

vs

Diyar Nurgozhay

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

Record: 14-1-0 

Record

Record: 10-2-0 

5

Knockouts

6

6

Subs

2

-225 

Vegas Odds

175 

Luke Fernandez

vs

Rodolfo Bellato

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

Record: 6-0-0 

Record

Record: 12-3-1 (1 NC) 

5

Knockouts

7

0

Subs

4

-225 

Vegas Odds

175