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  1. MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett
  2. Sample Lineup
  3. Picks and Stats

UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett takes place this Saturday from Las Vegas, Nevada.  The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 5:00 PM EST on Paramount+, followed by the Prelims at 7:00 on Paramount+ and finally the Main Card at 9:00 PM on Paramount+.  This is the first card ever on Paramount+, and the UFC did not disappoint with the matchups.  The co-main event features the former champion Sean O’Malley taking on action-packed striker Song Yadong.  The Main Event is for the interim Lightweight Title as Paddy Pimblett takes on Justin Gaethje in a battle between two action-packed fighters.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

 

 

 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

7300/8900

-

Stackability: Low

186/ -245

400./120.

What a great Main Event to kick off the year. Paddy has been on a roll, and while I initially thought he was overrated, he has greatly improved since his UFC debut. Justin Gaethje is one of the most entertaining fighters in the division and although he has failed to capture gold twice in the past, he took the first round off of Khabib and dropped Charles Oliviera in his second attempt. If this fight was in 2022, I would pick Gaethje all day, but he seems to be starting a little slower these days and wearing damage a little worse. If this stays standing, I do favor Justin, but I feel like this is Paddy's time to take over the division and I'm expecting him to get the submission win.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Ateba Gautier

9700

Andrey Pulyaev

Somewhat-Safe

-1,100

-500 

A ton of power, a fight he should win, and he is -500 for the KO. If he gets into Round 2 for the first time in the UFC it could get greasy. Huge upside but you are paying a really high price for him in a three-round fight with no grappling upside.
Umar Nurmagomedov

9900

Deiveson Figueiredo

Somewhat-Safe

-1500 

130 

Umar is the biggest favorite on the card, but he has a tough opponent in Figueiredo. He should be able to get his wrestling going and has the safest floor of anyone, likely scoring 90+ in a decision. The issue is he is $9900 so he is tough to fit into lineups without punting at multiple spots.
Waldo Cortes Acosta

9200

Derrick Lewis

Somewhat-Safe

-315

-110 

Derrick Lewis fights are always interesting because a big score could come from either side. Waldo is a high-risk high reward play. I am a little nervous that he may look to just keep range and avoid big confrontations with Lewis, but this fight likely ends in a KO.
Ty Miller

9300

Adam Fugitt

Moderate

-420 

-150 

Miller is making his debut in the UFC but make no mistake he is a high caliber fighter. He throws a lot of combinations and against someone like Fugitt who isn't a great defensive fighter he should be able to land big shots. He doesn't wrestle so in a decision he won't pay off his price tag, but I see him getting a second round KO.
Josh Hokit

9000

Denzel Freeman

Moderate

-210 

105 

This is a fight between two fighters I was going to try to fade next time out. Hokit is a great 4-minute fighter but he looks like he will fade out the later the fight gets. I don't love his gas tank but his fighting style brings a high payoff if he gets the early finish. Freeman doesn't throw much volume, his wrestling is high level, but he doesn't do enough to outwork Hokit.




 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Modestas Bukauskas

8400

Nikita Krylov

Moderate

-144 

-105 

The mid-range this week has no one between $7900-8300 so I'm expanding the range a little. This fight should have a huge score from one of these fighters. Modestas is a better striker, and Krylov's iron chin has been cracked twice recently. I'm banking on him to come in and KO him.
Alexander Hernandez

8500

Michael Johnson

Moderate

-168 

175 

Hernandez is someone who constantly disappoints me, but this is a good matchup for him. He is going to be a little behind on speed but has more power and wrestling. He should be able to win this fight over three rounds if he stays active enough. UPDATED - FIGHT IS CANCELLED
Charles Johnson

8700

Alex Perez

Somewhat-Risky

-185

200 

Johnson has a win over Joshua Van, but recently had his win streak ended by someone who popped for steroids immediately after the fight. I expect Round 1 to be close, but after that he should win the exchanges.
Sean O'Malley

8800

Yadong Song

Somewhat-Risky

-200

350

Sean is a great striker, but his lack of wrestling ability and Song's durability make it tough for him to score 100+ without a KO. I'll probably be skipping Sean this week which seems like a risky fade.
Nikita Krylov

7800

Modestas Bukauskas

Somewhat-Risky

118 

140

If Krylov wins it will be by wrestling and controlling this fight on the ground. If this stays standing eventually he will get cracked and KO'd.
Ricky Turcios

7600

Cameron Smotherman

Somewhat-Risky

158 

1,400 

As of now this fight is still on but Smotherman passed out on the scales so I'm not sure it will happen. Turcios has more volume and the ability to wrestle, while Smotherman has the power. If this goes to decision Turcios may outscore Smotherman even in a loss.
Alex Perez

7500

Charles Johnson

Risky

160

600

Perez is a veteran who keeps blowing fights at the last minute after winning two rounds as a big underdog last time out and then diving head first into a submission immediately to start the third round. If he can maintain his head and fight smart this is a winnable fight by a close decision.




 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Derrick Lewis

7000

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Somewhat-Risky

240 

300. 

Lewis always has the ceiling to KO someone in the first minute of the fight. I expect the loser of this fight to score under 10pts but the winner to score 90+. He's a great tournament punt play.
Yadong Song

7400

Sean O'Malley

Somewhat-Risky

168

500

Song is the better wrestler, but he doesn't like to use it. He needs to at least put the thought in O'Malley's head that he might shoot for the takedowns.
Denzel Freeman

7200

Josh Hokit

Risky

184 

275. 

Freeman is an Olympic level wrestler, but he is very low volume. If he survives and wears down Hokit he could win this fight, but I don't expect him to be able to win it in the first round.
Arnold Allen

7100

Jean Silva

Risky

230 

650 

Allen is a great fighter, and I expect this fight to be very close but with their durability I think it goes to decision. Allen probably needs to mix in wrestling to beat Silva, but with both of these guys only landing around 20 significant strikes per round we could see a very close contested decision.
Rose Namajunas

6800

Natalia Silva

Risky

310 

1300 

Rose has a tough fight ahead of her, but she is another punt play that should see the judges’ scorecards. She has held the belt before, but those days are way beyond her. She has kickboxing to win this fight if she slows down the pace and makes it methodical, but that is a tough test against Silva.
Adam Fugitt

6900

Ty Miller

Risky

310 

600 

Fugitt has bad defense but he loves to jump into the fire and trade shots. If he wins it'll be a KO but he is much less of a chance than Lewis to get the KO.
Andrey Pulyaev

6500

Ateba Gautier

Risky

570 

850 

This is a terrible matchup for Pulyaev as Guthier is more powerful and quicker than him and he doesn't wrestle much. If this goes into Round 2/3 maybe he can tire out Guthier but that is a tough ask.


 

 

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Gaethje, Song, Lewis, Freeman, Allen

Picks and Stats

   

Justin Gaethje

vs

Paddy Pimblett

$7,300

DFS Salary

$8,900

Record: 26-5-0

Record

Record: 23-3-0

20

Knockouts

10

1

Subs

7

186

Vegas Odds

-245

   

Sean O'Malley

vs

Song Yadong

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

Record: 18-3-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 22-8-1 (1 NC)

12

Knockouts

9

1

Subs

3

-200

Vegas Odds

168

   

Waldo Cortes Acosta

vs

Derrick Lewis

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

Record: 16-2-0

Record

Record: 29-12-0 (1 NC)

8

Knockouts

24

1

Subs

1

-315

Vegas Odds

240

   

Natalia Silva

vs

Rose Namajunas

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,800

Record: 19-5-1

Record

Record: 15-7-0

5

Knockouts

2

7

Subs

5

-440

Vegas Odds

310

   

Arnold Allen

vs

Jean Silva

$7,100

DFS Salary

$9,100

Record: 20-3-0

Record

Record: 16-3-0

7

Knockouts

12

4

Subs

3

230

Vegas Odds

-310

 

0

 

Umar Nurmagomedov

vs

Deiveson Figueiredo

$9,900

DFS Salary

$6,300

Record: 19-1-0

Record

Record: 25-5-1

2

Knockouts

9

7

Subs

9

-1500

Vegas Odds

790

   

Ateba Gautier

vs

Andrey Pulyaev

$9,700

DFS Salary

$6,500

Record: 9-1-0

Record

Record: 10-3-0

8

Knockouts

6

0

Subs

2

-900

Vegas Odds

570

   

Nikita Krylov

vs

Modestas Bukauskas

$7,800

DFS Salary

$8,400

Record: 30-11-0

Record

Record: 19-6-0

12

Knockouts

11

16

Subs

3

118

Vegas Odds

-144

   

Alex Perez

vs

Charles Johnson

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

 

Record

Record: 18-7-0

6

Knockouts

8

7

Subs

3

+155

Vegas Odds

-185

   

Michael Johnson (CANCELLED)

vs

Alexander Hernandez  (CANCELLED)

$7,700

DFS Salary

$8,500

Record: 25-19-0

Record

Record: 18-8-0

10

Knockouts

8

2

Subs

2

136

Vegas Odds

-168

   

Josh Hokit

vs

Denzel Freeman

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

Record: 7-0-0

Record

Record: 7-1-0

4

Knockouts

4

3

Subs

1

-210

Vegas Odds

184

   

Ricky Turcios

vs

Cameron Smotherman

$7,600

DFS Salary

$8,600

Record: 13-5-0

Record

Record: 12-6-0

3

Knockouts

6

1

Subs

1

158

Vegas Odds

-196

   

Adam Fugitt

vs

Ty Miller

$6,900

DFS Salary

$9,300

Record: 10-5-0

Record

Record: 6-0-0 (1 NC)

5

Knockouts

2

3

Subs

0

310

Vegas Odds

-420

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