UFC 322 DFS Picks & Lineups: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev Cheat Sheet, 11/15
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs Makhachev takes place this Saturday from Madison Square Garden in New York City. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00 PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00 PM EST on ESPNNews, and finally the Main Card at 10:00 PM EST on ESPN+ PPV. This card features two title challengers looking to claim belts in new divisions as Islam Makhachev steps up to challenge for the 170lb title against Jack Della Maddalena. Weili Zhang moves up to the 125lb division as she takes on the #1 Women’s Pound for Pound fighter, Valentina Schevchenko. Both of these fights should be nonstop action in a totally stacked card.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
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MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs Makhachev
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev | 7000/9200 | - | Stackability: Low | 215/ -290 | 400./120. |
| Islam Makhachev has been dominant at 155lbs and he looks to continue that domination when he makes a run for the 170lb title. JDM is a great boxer but has been taken down by anyone who tries so expect a grappling heavy approach from Islam. Islam has been chin checked a few times so he is hittable but I have a hard time seeing him allowing this fight to stay standing. I'm taking Islam to win by early sub, but if this gets into the later rounds JDM could be live for a late finish. | |||||
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Expensive Fighters
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Baisangur Susurkaev | 9800 | Eric McConico | Somewhat-Safe | -1,100 | -500Â |
| Susurkaev is a bit of an unknown hyped up prospect but he has a ton of power. He's a good wrestler as well so he could mix in takedowns. I expect him to win this fight easily, but at his price he'll need 110+ pts to fight for the optimal lineup unless we see a ton of dogs winning. | |||||
| Kyle Daukaus | 9300 | Gerald Meerschaert | Somewhat-Safe | -400Â | +1,100Â |
| Daukaus is the GPP play this week. He is $500 cheaper than Susurkaev, but I think he is about as likely to finish early as he is. The difference is if this gets into the later stages of R2 I could see GM3 taking over the fight. I think Daukaus gets the early KO before GM3 can get going. | |||||
| Erin Blanchfield | 9000 | Tracy Cortez | Somewhat-Safe | -260Â | +110Â |
| Blanchfield is a great DK scorer, but she has a decent wrestler in front of her in Cortez. At her best she scores multiple takedowns and wins by submission in R1/2, and at her worst she probably scores 90 in a decision. | |||||
| Bo Nickal | 9100 | Rodolfo Vieira | Moderate | -245 | 240. |
| Nickal is a tough click this week after some disappointing fights. He can 100% can this fight to the ground if he wants, and he can keep it standing if he wants. My issue is sometimes against experienced BJJ players he has opted to keep it standing which leads to a low level striking battle. If he wrestles he can score 100+, if he tries to strike the whole time I expect the winner of this fight to score in the 60s. | |||||
| Benoit Saint Denis | 8800 | Beneil Dariush | Moderate | #N/A | -175 |
| Saint Denis is another fighter who I am not overly confident in winning, but I'm confident that if he wins he is going to score well. Benoit is hell on wheels for the 1st round, and the 1st round is normally Dariush's worst so it's possible he gets the early finish here. If this gets into R2, I'll start to get nervous that he fades. | |||||
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Mid-Range Fighters
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Malcolm Wellmaker | 8400 | Cody Haddon | Moderate | -500Â | N/AÂ |
| Wellmaker is going to come in as one of the highest owned fighters on the slate, which is tough to do when there is a 5 round co-main event priced at 8200/8000. Wellmaker is getting a short notice opponent and I expect him to close around a -700 favorite. He likely gets the early KO here, I don't see much reason to fade him unless you want to be contrarian. | |||||
| Valentina Shevchenko | 8200 | Zhang Weili | Moderate | -128 | 450. |
| This is almost a must play fight in the mid range. Valentina should be able to get some takedowns, but on the feet this is a very close fight. I expect Valentina to be able to win more minutes and get the decision and at the rate these two woman work even in a decision I expect the winner to score 90+. | |||||
| Zhang Weili | 8000 | Valentina Shevchenko | Somewhat-Risky | 100 | 425. |
| This is the second champion moving up a weight class in search of a new title on the card. Weili is going to out volume Valentina, and she has been improving her wrestling, but this isn't the matchup for her to shoot takedowns. This fight is a tossup, but I'll have more Valentina in my lineups. | |||||
| Pat Sabatini | 8300 | Chepe Mariscal | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | 450. |
| Sabatini has the takedown upside here, and if he has his way, he'll be landing multiple takedowns and keeping this fight on the ground. His durability is a question sometimes, but if he wins the fight, I expect him to score well. On a normal card he would be a much higher play but with the 5-round fight, and a mispriced Wellmaker he is clearly behind them. | |||||
| Gregory Rodrigues | 8600 | Roman Kopylov | Somewhat-Risky | -188 | 130. |
| "Robocop" is similar to Sabatini with high upside, but questionable durability. Rodrigues is a good grappler, and Kopylov has questionable takedown defense but Rodrigues has been known to not use his easiest path to win his fights. I don't want to be overexposed here because I can't trust him to wrestle, but if he does, he could look like a -400 favorite. | |||||
| Sean Brady | 8500 | Michael Morales | Somewhat-Risky | -148Â | 200 |
| Brady needs to wrestle but unlike some others in this range he knows he has to. On the feet Morales is going to piece him up, but Morales hasn't faced anyone who can wrestle like Brady yet. This fight is lined close, but I expect by the end of the first round we have a clear idea on who is going to win the fight. If Brady gets his takedowns and can hold Morales down, he has a huge ceiling. | |||||
| Roman Kopylov | 7600 | Gregory Rodrigues | Risky | 146 | 225. |
| I expect this to be a war, and Kopylov is a good striker who could give Rodriges problems. Rodrigues is going to start bleeding almost instantly once he is hit so if this fight is close it'll look like Kopylov is doing more damage. He just needs to keep it standing. | |||||
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Paydown Fighters
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 7500 | Matheus Camilo | Somewhat-Risky | 126 | 240. |
| Borshchev is similar to Kopylov, if he keeps it standing, he can compete in this fight. Slava is a tough fighter, but he is starting to slow down a bit from all the wars he has been in. He needs to make this fight a brawl to take advantage of the better wrestler in Camilo. | |||||
| Leon Edwards | 7300 | Carlos Prates | Somewhat-Risky | 154 | 500. |
| Edwards is another fighter who could wrestle to a victory, but he has outwardly said he doesn't want to this week. Edwards has always been a clean striker, but he can be low volume at times. I expect Prates to land the bigger shots and do a little bit more on the feet than Edwards, but this should be close. | |||||
| Rodolfo Vieira | 7100 | Bo Nickal | Risky | 186 | 350. |
| Vieira is one of the best submission specialists in the world, so if Bo shoots for a takedown and isn't careful, he could be subbed. My issue here is that Rodolfo has bad wrestling so he won't be able to get the fight down unless Bo wants it there. | |||||
| Gerald Meerschaert | 6900 | Kyle Daukaus | Risky | 285 | 550. |
| GM3 is always live for the late finish, but he has to go through a battle in the early part of the fight to get there. I don't think he gets it done this week but he is one of the few fighters priced this low that has true finishing upside. | |||||
| Tracy Cortez | 7200 | Erin Blanchfield | Risky | 196 | 900. |
| Cortez is rematching Blanchfield and she won the initial fight, but that fight took place when Blanchfield was only 19 years old. This should go to decision, but I don't think she'll be able to outwrestle Blanchfield. | |||||
| Angela Hill | 6700 | Fatima Kline | Risky | 350Â | 1,40Â |
| These are the spots we used to target Hill, but she is now 41 years old. I don't expect her to be able to beat Kline standing, or if the fight goes to the ground. | |||||
| Eric McConico | 6400 | Baisangur Susurkaev | Risky | 600 | 900. |
| He has more experience than his opponent, but he is giving up a lot in terms of explosiveness. This is a bunch of inexperienced fighters so there is a chance for a major upset, but I think the odds are right so he is a big longshot. | |||||
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Sample Lineup
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Live Dogs
Della Maddalena, Dariush, Borshchev, Zhang
Picks and Stats
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Jack Della Maddalena | vs | Islam Makhachev |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 18-2-0 | Record | Record: 27-1-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 13 |
215 | Vegas Odds | -290 |
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Valentina Shevchenko | vs | Zhang Weili |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 25-4-1 | Record | Record: 26-3-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 11 |
7 | Subs | 8 |
-128 | Vegas Odds | 100 |
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Sean Brady | vs | Michael Morales |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 18-1-0 | Record | Record: 18-0-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 13 |
6 | Subs | 1 |
-148 | Vegas Odds | 116 |
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Leon Edwards | vs | Carlos Prates |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 22-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 22-7-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 17 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
154 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
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Beneil Dariush | vs | Benoit Saint Denis |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 23-6-1 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 (1 NC) |
5 | Knockouts | 4 |
8 | Subs | 11 |
164 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
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Bo Nickal | vs | Rodolfo Vieira |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 1 |
4 | Subs | 9 |
-245 | Vegas Odds | 186 |
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Roman Kopylov | vs | Gregory Rodrigues |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 11 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
146 | Vegas Odds | -188 |
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Erin Blanchfield | vs | Tracy Cortez |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 1 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
-260 | Vegas Odds | 196 |
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Malcolm Wellmaker | vs | Ethyn Ewing |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
Record: 10-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 6 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
-500 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
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Kyle Daukaus | vs | Gerald Meerschaert |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | #6,900 |
Record: 16-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 37-20-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 6 |
11 | Subs | 29 |
-400 | Vegas Odds | 285 |
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Pat Sabatini | vs | Chepe Mariscal |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 20-5-0 | Record | Record: 18-6-0 (1 NC) |
2 | Knockouts | 7 |
12 | Subs | 3 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | 106 |
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Angela Hill | vs | Fatima Kline |
$6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
Record: 18-15-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 4 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
350 | Vegas Odds | -520 |
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Baisangur Susurkaev | vs | Eric McConico |
$9,800 | DFS Salary | #6,400 |
Record: 10-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-1 |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | 600 |
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Viacheslav Borshchev | vs | Matheus Camilo |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 8-6-1 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
126 | Vegas Odds | -162 |
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