UFC 318 DFS Picks & Lineups: Holloway vs Poirier 3 Cheat Sheet, 7/19

Published: Jul 19, 2025

Updated: Jul 19, 2025

UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier takes place this Saturday live from Louisiana. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00 PM EST on ESPN2, followed by the Prelims at 8:00 on ESPN, and finally the Main Card PPV at 10:00 PM on ESPN+ PPV. The Main Event features two fan favorites as Max Holloway puts his BMF Belt on the line against Dustin Poirier in what will be Dustin’s retirement fight. The fight should be an absolute war and non-stop action for as long as the fight lasts.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier

Main Event
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier	8200/8000	-	Stackability: Low	-138/ 118	300./275.
One of the best main events of the year as two fan favorites meet. Poirier is retiring after this fight and while he holds a 2-0 record against Holloway he is coming in as the underdog. Both of these guys are always in wars so I expect whoever wins this to be in the optimal lineup, likely having to land close to 200 significant strikes or KOing their opponent. I'm leaning on Max because he looks much bigger at 155lbs than he did when they last fought. I don't think wrestling should come into play much, and we've seen Holloway still have his insane durability and striking volume that he has always had. Poirier, while still competing at the top level, has looked a little slower and even against St. Denis he looked a little behind before St. Denis started to slow down. I'm picking Max to win by late finish but it should be extremely close.

Expensive Fighters

Expensive
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Islam Dulatov	9600	Adam Fugitt	Somewhat-Safe	-650	-400
Dulatov is extremely powerful and for at least the first 7.5 minutes he should dominate this fight. He should be able to have the fight take place wherever he wants it, and eventually he should be able to land something big and finish the fight early.
Brunno Ferreira	9700	Jackson McVey	Somewhat-Safe	-570	-450
Ferreira has a ton of power and can wrestle a little bit so he should keep it standing. McVey was coming in on short notice a few weeks back but that fight ended up getting cancelled. My biggest concern here is that Ferreira is the much shorter man and McVey is 6-0, I'm not sure if at this price I am going to be playing him in single entry contests but he does have a high ceiling.
Ateba Gautier	9400	Robert Valentin	Somewhat-Safe	-650	-320
Gautier has a ton of power and he should be looking for an early finish. Valentin is a pretty good striker too so there is a chance he can drag this fight out. If this gets past R1 I don't think Gautier has the volume to pay off his price so he really needs to get it done early.
Daniel Zellhuber	9500	Michael Johnson	Moderate	-600	-125
Zellhuber should be able to get the KO here, but sometimes Johnson rolls back the clock. Zellhuber is going to be faster and more durable but he needs to bite down on his mouthpiece and get in the pocket to score well. Johnson still has fast hands but his durability is starting to go so I expect Zellhuber to KO him in the 1st or 2nd.
Jimmy Crute	9000	Marcin Prachnio	Moderate	-335	-130
Crute should be able to outwrestle Prachnio, but sometimes he pushes too hard for the early finish and gasses out. I'd rather back a fighter going for an early finish that gases out than a fighter who doesn't have a high ceiling so I'll be playing plenty of Crute.

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Ryan Spann	8700	Lukasz Brzeski	Moderate	-210	-185
Spann is a first round or bust fighter, but at his price that is more than enough. He is either going to KO/Sub Brzeski in Round 1 or he is going to gas out. He showed up 10lbs more than Brzeski so his cardio is definitely going to be an issue if he can't get the finish.
Francisco Prado	8300	Nikolay Veretennikov	Moderate	-145	240.
I like Prado a lot this week as the more well-rounded fighter. If this hits the ground Prado should be able to keep it there so he might only need one takedown to lock up a round. He isn't going to shoot 10 takedowns, but he should make the ones that he does shoot for count.
Dan Ige	8600	Patricio Freire	Somewhat-Risky	-220	250.
Ige hits like a truck and while Freire has some skills his best days are clearly behind him. Ige doesn't throw much volume so he needs the KO to pay off his price so he might not make his way into many lineups, but I am confident he gets the win.
Kyler Phillips	7700	Vinicius Oliveira	Somewhat-Risky	130	425.
Phillips always has a good Round 1 and this is a huge overreaction with this line. Phillips was just -600 against a top15 fighter in Rob Font and he lost, so now he gets an unranked fighter on a winning streak and he is the underdog. This fight should be Phillips -150 but it still should be a close battle.
Lukasz Brzeski	7500	Ryan Spann	Somewhat-Risky	180	250.
If Spann doesn't get the finish Brzeski is going to takeover in the second and third rounds. He isn't really better than Spann in any area except cardio but sometimes that is all you need to win a fight.
Nikolay Veretennikov	7900	Francisco Prado	Somewhat-Risky	125	400.
He's a good striker but his wrestling is pretty bad. If he gets taken down, I don't know if he'll be able to get back up and Prado is going to push a pace on him. I don't love his price either since he's right around Poirier/Holloway so I probably won't click on him much even with his striking upside.
Patricio Freire	7600	Dan Ige	Risky	180	750.
He is going to look to wrestle which I normally target when I'm looking at underdogs, but I don't think he ends up getting the takedowns. Freire really looked uninspired in his last fight and his gameplan was absolutely terrible so I don't want to trust him this week.

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Marvin Vettori	7400	Brendan Allen	Somewhat-Risky	170	900.
Vettori is a better striker than Allen but both of these guys are a mess when it comes to game planning. I'm taking the underdog here because this should be a very close fight, and I don't think Allen will be able to get his submission game going.
Paulo Costa	7300	Roman Kopylov	Somewhat-Risky	190	425.
Costa at his best can land 100+ significant strikes in a three round fight but his power never really translates to knockouts. Even with just his volume if he gets the decision victory, he should be able to get close to the score needed to make the optimal lineup.
Marcin Prachnio	7200	Jimmy Crute	Risky	275	600.
Crute gasses out after normally dominating his fights early so I expect Prachnio to win R3 if it gets there. Crute is still tough to finish so it might get to the judge’s scorecard and similar to Costa at this price any type of win is still really good for your lineup.
Jackson McVey	6500	Brunno Ferreira	Risky	420	500.
This is purely a price play. McVey is big and while he isn't overly talented, he could win this fight. McVey is undefeated and has a huge reach advantage so as long but he likely will shoot for takedowns. Ferreira is going to be able to outmuscle him but if he can survive the fight, he might be able to just outwork Ferreira and win a decision.
Michael Johnson	6700	Daniel Zellhuber	Risky	450	1,00
There are a lot of huge underdogs in the $7000 and below range and they are all unlikely to win, but if Johnson wins it could be a KO. Johnson hits hard and on his best day can KO almost anyone in the division. Zellhuber is going to push a pace so it's unlikely he will make it to the final bell, so a KO win is the only way I see Johnson winning.
Nicolle Caliari	7100	Carli Judice	Risky	285	700.
She can wrestle; that’s the path to victory. In her past few fights, she gets a few takedowns and if she can control Judice she might be able to win. Judice is going to throw a lot of volume when on the feet so she'll really need to rack up damage on the ground to get the win.
Daniel Rodriguez	6900	Kevin Holland	Risky	400	800.
Rodriguez is in trouble this week because everything he does well Holland does a little better. I expect Holland to get a takedown at some point and that should be able to lock up the rounds. Rodriguez is going to stand at range and land his typical 80-120 significant strikes if you let him but he is never going to really push the pace to get to the finish.
Adam Fugitt	6600	Islam Dulatov	Risky	450	900.
Dulatov is too strong for him, of all the fighters that need to weather the early storm Fugitt is the one that I trust the least to be able to get to the later stages of the fight. I won't be playing him this week.

Sample Lineup

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AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Live Dogs

Poirier, Phillips, Brzeski, Vettori

Picks and Stats


Max Holloway	vs	Dustin Poirier
$8,200	DFS Salary	$8,000
Record: 26-8-0	Record	Record: 30-9-0 (1 NC)
12	Knockouts	15
2	Subs	8
-138	Vegas Odds	118

Paulo Costa	vs	Roman Kopylov
$7,300	DFS Salary	$8,900
Record: 14-4-0	Record	Record: 14-3-0
11	Knockouts	12
1	Subs	0
190	Vegas Odds	-230

Kevin Holland	vs	Daniel Rodriguez
$9,300	DFS Salary	$6,900
Record: 28-13-0 (1 NC)	Record	Record: 19-5-0
14	Knockouts	9
9	Subs	4
-550	Vegas Odds	400

Dan Ige	vs	Patricio Freire
$8,600	DFS Salary	$7,600
Record: 19-9-0	Record	Record: 36-8-0
7	Knockouts	12
5	Subs	12
-220	Vegas Odds	180

Michael Johnson	vs	Daniel Zellhuber
$6,700	DFS Salary	$9,500
Record: 24-19-0	Record	Record: 15-2-0
10	Knockouts	7
2	Subs	3
450	Vegas Odds	-600
	0
Kyler Phillips	vs	Vinicius Oliveira
$7,700	DFS Salary	$8,500
Record: 12-3-0	Record	Record: 22-3-0
5	Knockouts	16
2	Subs	2
130	Vegas Odds	-150

Marvin Vettori	vs	Brendan Allen
$7,400	DFS Salary	$8,800
Record: 19-8-1	Record	Record: 24-7-0
2	Knockouts	5
9	Subs	14
170	Vegas Odds	-200

Francisco Prado	vs	Nikolay Veretennikov
$8,300	DFS Salary	$7,900
Record: 12-3-0	Record	Record: 12-6-0
6	Knockouts	9
6	Subs	1
-145	Vegas Odds	125

Ateba Gautier	vs	Robert Valentin
$9,400	DFS Salary	$6,800
Record: 7-1-0	Record	Record: 11-5-0 (1 NC)
6	Knockouts	3
0	Subs	6
-650	Vegas Odds	450

Adam Fugitt	vs	Islam Dulatov
$6,600	DFS Salary	$9,600
Record: 10-4-0	Record	Record: 11-1-0
5	Knockouts	7
3	Subs	4
450	Vegas Odds	-650

Jimmy Crute	vs	Marcin Prachnio
$9,000	DFS Salary	$7,200
Record: 12-4-2	Record	Record: 17-8-0
5	Knockouts	11
4	Subs	1
-335	Vegas Odds	275

Ryan Spann	vs	Lukasz Brzeski
$8,700	DFS Salary	$7,500
Record: 22-11-0	Record	Record: 9-6-1 (1 NC)
6	Knockouts	5
13	Subs	2
-210	Vegas Odds	180

Brunno Ferreira	vs	Jackson McVey
$9,700	DFS Salary	$6,500
Record: 13-2-0	Record	Record: 6-0-0
9	Knockouts	3
4	Subs	3
-570	Vegas Odds	420

Carli Judice	vs	Nicolle Caliari
$9,100	DFS Salary	$7,100
Record: 4-2-0	Record	Record: 8-3-0
4	Knockouts	5
0	Subs	3
-350	Vegas Odds	285