UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliviera takes place this Saturday live from Las Vegas, Nevada.  The card kicks off with the Prelims at 7:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 10:00 on ESPN+.  Two title fights highlight the card, with Ilia Topuria taking on Charles Oliviera for the 155lb belt as Ilia looks to claim a belt in his second division.  Alexander Pantoja takes on Kai Kara France in the other five-round title fight as Pantoja looks to continue his streak of title defenses on top of the Flyweight Division.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
 

 


 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliviera 

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira

9300/6900

-

Stackability: Low

-440/ 340

/

One of the best fights of the year tops the card this week. Topuria is moving up from 145lbs but is coming in as a massive favorite. Charles is an aging fighter but he still has what it takes to compete at the top level of the sport. Charles is notorious for getting hurt early in fights and Topuria has more than enough power to KO him so he'll really need to be careful early if he wants to win this fight. Topuria has the power advantage and that should carry into the fight for as long as it lasts, Oliveira has the grappling upside and has a big reach advantage. I sadly think Topuria gets the win by early KO so that'll be my pick.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Alexandre Pantoja

9000

Kai Kara-France

Somewhat-Safe

-240 

 
There are two five round fights on this card, so we have to prioritize that fight as well. Pantoja is a great wrestler and we've seen in most of his title defenses that he can rack up 3+ takedowns. He isn't the most likely fighter to win his fight in this range, but he is the most likely to pay off his price even if it gets outside of the first round.
Jacobe Smith

9900

Niko Price

Somewhat-Safe

-2500 

 
One of the biggest favorites of the year. Smith has power, has wrestling, and is getting an opponent who is aging and is starting to lose their durability. In his prime Niko Price probably gives Smith a good go, but at this point I think Smith by early KO is the most likely scenario.
Jhonata Diniz

9100

Alvin Hines

Somewhat-Safe

-340 

 
Hines resume isn't very impressive, and while Diniz is very one dimensional I think he has the clear advantage here. Hines is more of a journeyman so unless he shows something different Diniz will eventually land power and get the KO.
Gregory Rodrigues

8800

Jack Hermansson

Moderate

-225 

 
Rodrigues has more power, especially early on in the fight so if either of these two guys are winning in the first round it'll be Rodrigues. If this fight gets to the 2nd/3rd rounds Hermansson could end up stealing the fight, but with so many good options in the 9k range, we need to be playing for our ceiling this week, and that is something that Rodrigues offers with his mix of powerful striking and good wrestling.
Felipe Lima

8700

Payton Talbott

Moderate

-180 

 
Lima should wrestle if he wants to win this fight and Talbott was exposed in his last fight that he really can't get back up from them. If it stays standing Lima will have to land a ton of volume to keep up with Talbott, so either way this fight takes place he should be able to score well on DraftKings, although I don't see him getting the early finish.




 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Terrance McKinney

8600

Viacheslav Borshchev

Moderate

-180 

 
This fight is going to make or break the mid-range this week. McKinney has a ton of power, especially early, and Borchschev struggles to defend takedowns. McKinney has about 5 minutes of gas in his tank so he won't win anything that gets outside of the first round, but you at least know that if he does win this fight he will be scoring 100+ pts.
Hyder Amil

7700

Jose Delgado

Moderate

130 

 
This is another great DFS fight in the mid-range. I'm leaning towards Amil here but Delgado is live as well. Amil is a berserker so he is going to march forward and use his insane pressure and cardio to try to wear down Delgado. His approach to fights leads to someone in it landing either a ton of volume or a finish so I'm expecting the winner of this fight to score 90+ pts. I think Amil gets it done by swarming Delgado early and holding on to get his hand raised in a decision.
Brandon Royval

8200

Joshua Van

Somewhat-Risky

-105 

 
Royval is going to be under owned here because he has flipped into the underdog. I think this spot is too much too soon for Van. Royval has a clear advantage in the ground and early on it'll be close on the feet. I wouldn't be surprised if Royval wins R1, and then steals R2/3 with his wrestling.
Beneil Dariush

7800

Renato Moicano

Somewhat-Risky

-110 

 
I'm not a big Dariush fan, but he has a game plan to wrestle and he normally sticks to it. Moicano had good submission skills but off of his back he isn't going to be a threat. Neither of these men are power punchers, and both of them have shown durability concerns recently. I'm leaning into Dariush to use his wrestling and control the fight.
Viacheslav Borshchev

7600

Terrance McKinney

Somewhat-Risky

150 

 
I probably should have him higher up because if he wins it's likely by a second round finish. He's going to be fighting off takedowns early and he likely losses the first round, but if he survives he's almost a lock to score 80-90pts in a second round KO once McKinney gasses out. 
Joshua Van

8000

Brandon Royval

Risky

-115 

 
Van has quick striking and is going to throw more volume but Royval is by far the best competition he has faced. He'll be popular as an $8000 priced favorite, and his ceiling isn't that high because his finish will be late or a decision.




 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Kai Kara-France

7200

Alexandre Pantoja

Somewhat-Risky

200 

 
He has the KO power, and five rounds to work with. Pantoja normally fights close so I expect this to be close as well. If he keeps it standing he wins.
Payton Talbott

7500

Felipe Lima

Somewhat-Risky

150 

 
Talbott was one of the most hyped prospects in the UFC until his first loss. He is the better striker, but his takedown defense is a massive hole in his game. Similar to KKF, if he keeps it standing he wins the fight.
Jack Hermansson

7400

Gregory Rodrigues

Risky

185 

 
Hermansson starts slow, but he has battled the top of the division for years so he knows what it takes to win fights. I expect him to lose the first round but he can definitely outwork Rodrigues and steal R2/3 with his wrestling.
Viviane Araujo

7300

Tracy Cortez

Risky

210 

 
She can wrestle a little bit, and Cortez is normally in close fights so it'll depend on how the judges see this fight. I line this fight closer to pick'em, and while she doesn't have the ceiling of some other underdogs, she has a decent chance of winning at a cheap price.
Alvin Hines

7100

Jhonata Diniz

Risky

270 

 
Hines is coming in on short notice, and he is pretty green in MMA. He still has a full time job so I don't expect him to be great, but if he does get his wrestling going he can takedown Diniz and maybe control the fight.
Niko Price

6300

Jacobe Smith

Risky

1200 

#N/A

Price is going to be in for a long day as he isn't as explosive as he used to be, and I don't think he can take Smith's best strikes for long. I won't be playing price.



 

Sample Lineup

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Live Dogs

Kara-France, Royval, Amil, Borshchev

Picks and Stats

   

Ilia Topuria

vs

Charles Oliveira

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

Record: 16-0-0 

Record

Record: 35-10-0 (1 NC) 

6

Knockouts

10

8

Subs

21

-440 

Vegas Odds

+340 

   

Alexandre Pantoja

vs

Kai Kara-France

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

Record: 29-5-0 

Record

Record: 25-11-0 (1 NC) 

8

Knockouts

12

11

Subs

3

-240 

Vegas Odds

+200 

   

Brandon Royval

vs

Joshua Van

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 17-7-0 

Record

Record: 14-2-0 

4

Knockouts

7

9

Subs

2

-105 

Vegas Odds

-115 

   

Beneil Dariush

vs

Renato Moicano

$7,800

DFS Salary

$8,400

Record: 22-6-1 

Record

Record: 20-6-1 

5

Knockouts

2

8

Subs

10

-110 

Vegas Odds

-110 

   

Payton Talbott

vs

Felipe Lima

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

Record: 9-1-0 

Record

Record: 14-1-0 

7

Knockouts

4

1

Subs

3

150 

Vegas Odds

-180 

 

0

 

Jack Hermansson

vs

Gregory Rodrigues

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

Record: 24-8-0 

Record

Record: 16-6-0 

11

Knockouts

10

6

Subs

3

185 

Vegas Odds

-225 

   

Hyder Amil

vs

Jose Delgado

$7,700

DFS Salary

$8,500

Record: 11-0-0 

Record

Record: 9-1-0 

6

Knockouts

5

1

Subs

4

130 

Vegas Odds

-155 

   

Viviane Araujo

vs

Tracy Cortez

$7,300

DFS Salary

$8,900

Record: 13-6-0 

Record

Record: 11-2-0 

3

Knockouts

1

4

Subs

1

210 

Vegas Odds

-260 

   

Terrance McKinney

vs

Viacheslav Borshchev

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 16-7-0 

Record

Record: 8-5-1 

8

Knockouts

6

8

Subs

0

-180 

Vegas Odds

150 

   

Niko Price

vs

Jacobe Smith

$6,300

DFS Salary

$9,900

Record: 16-8-0 (2 NC) 

Record

Record: 10-0-0 

10

Knockouts

8

2

Subs

0

1200 

Vegas Odds

-2500 

   

Jhonata Diniz

vs

Alvin Hines

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

Record: 8-1-0 

Record

Record: 7-0-0 

7

Knockouts

3

0

Subs

3

-340 

Vegas Odds

270 

   

 

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