UFC 313 DFS Picks & Lineups: Pereira vs. Ankalaev Cheat Sheet, 3/8

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev takes place this Saturday live from The T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Nevada. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:30PM EST on Disney+/ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00PM EST on ESPNNews/Disney+/ESPN+ and the Main Card at 10:00PM on ESPN+ PPV.

The Main Event features two division champion Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev in a fight that will be a powerful striker vs. a strong wrestler. The co-main event is an action-packed matchup between “The Highlight” Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev in a rematch of a fight of the year contender.

Check out all the latest UFC 313 DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. 

Now let's look at the UFC 313 cheat sheet and some plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC 313 DFS picks and lineups!

UFC 313 DFS Picks & Lineups: Pereira vs. Ankalaev Cheat Sheet

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

This is going to be the toughest fight in Pereira's UFC run as a light heavyweight. Pereira is the better striker, and I see the leg kicks he throws really being a problem for Ankalaev. Ankalaev needs to close the distance and get this fight to the ground if he wants to have a chance against Alex which is something he has in his bag of tricks, but he doesn't always lean on it right away. I think Alex lands the cleaner strikes and gets the KO victory here, but this is a tight fight. Neither of these guys are high volume fighters so this is not a must play fight, but I'll have someone from it in about 70% of my lineups.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

Blaydes is my favorite high end play this week for two reasons. Blaydes is the best heavyweight wrestler on the planet, fighting someone who gasses out. Secondly, he's -310 for $9100 which is good value for this card. In a decision or in a finish he can score 100+ pts so he's one of the safer plays in this range.

Ruffy comes from the Fight Nerds gym that has been red hot, and he is one of the best prospects in the group. Green is aging and I think his chin is starting to fail him, I think this is Ruffy's fight to lose and a first-round finish is the most likely outcome.

Leal had to defend 19 takedown attempts in the last fight and was still able to land over 100 significant strikes, so his volume is tough to keep up with. Morono's best path to victory is to use his grappling, but after watching Leal defend takedowns perfectly last time out, I don't think he's going to get him down.

Santos has the massive power advantage here. I don't love his lack of volume or that he is pretty one dimensional with his striking, but he has the power that gives the ceiling to win a contest.

This is more of a play against Diaz than it is a play for Santos. Santos is well rounded, he can KO or submit opponents, but recently he has been going to decision which normally would be something we would avoid. The problem is Ozzy Diaz has never even seen a third round in his 11-fight career so someone should be getting finished. This is the lowest level fight on the card so the variance in these fights can be pretty high, so this is a GPP only play.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

Petrosyan is coming off of a brutal spinning backfist KO, but his durability has normally been pretty good. Ferreira is someone who is a front runner, but if Petrosyan survives the early attacks, he should be able to win the second and third round and maybe find the KO.

Lucindo is one of the few fighters in this range who is going to look primarily to wrestle, and that is the best way to beat Amanda Lemos. On the feet they should be evenly matched in terms of volume, but Lemos has way more power. I see this ending with a Lucindo decision but with 3+ takedowns and control time she could still score well.

This is a close fight, but if someone in this fight is scoring well it is going to be Castaneda. Guttierez is coming in on short notice so Castaneda should take over if it goes late in the fight, he just needs to survive the early leg kicks coming back his way which he should be able to do if he gets takedown early and often.

This is a step back in competition for Turner but not an easy fight. He hasn't been winning lately, but split decision losses to the 6th and 8th ranked fighters, and a near KO of former title challenger Renato Moicano aren't something that should be held against him. Both of these guys can crack, but I think Turner is a little bit better. If anyone is going to wrestle it is probably Turner, so as the more well-rounded guy for $200 cheaper I am going to take a shot on Turner.

This is a rematch from a few years ago that was a hard-fought battle, but a lot has changed. Both of them are strikers, but Gaethje is known for being a closer while Fiziev is a quick starter. Gaethje is coming off of a brutal KO loss against Max Holloway, and Fiziev is coming off a leg injury in his last fight so how they react to getting hit early on could tell how this fight goes. I think Gaethje takes a decision victory.

Ferreira is a quick finisher so if he does win it'll be early, and he'll have a high score. He's pretty much KO or bust, but at $7600 that is more than enough ceiling to make him worth paying.

She has the better inside the distance of the two, but she doesn't throw much volume. She needs the early KO but facing a 23-year-old taking a step up in competition, Lemos may just be too much for her.

Pay-Down UFC DFS Picks

This fight should be a blast, Rei is the better wrestler, and he should win the first round, but Josh Van in R2 and R3 is hell on wheels. Rei needs to control Van and land some takedowns in the later rounds to lock up this fight, if it stays standing, he is going to get cooked.

Diaz is basically a KO or bust fighter, and while he looked terrible in his UFC debut it was up a weight class so I'm expecting him to look better here. He has a low floor, and a high ceiling so avoid him in cash games, but he should be in play for tournaments.

Marshall is the better wrestler, and his volume of strikes is fine, but he is giving up a lot of power here. If he gets the fight down, maybe he can drain Santos, but if he doesn't get his wrestling going, he is going to get pieced up on the feet.

Kuniev popped for a ton of performance enhancing drugs only two years ago, but he looked in even better shape on the scale. He's slow and plodding but has power, so if he can land on Blaydes he can KO him, but he's going to have to deal with an onslaught of takedown attempts and those will probably be too much for him.

Green at his best could easily compete with Ruffy, but his best is years behind him. Maybe he uses his wrestling to tire Ruffy out a little, but this is a really tough test for him, especially if he lets his ego keep it on the feet.

Morono doesn't finish, and he is going to be behind on the feet, so he'll need to maybe use his wrestling to win this fight. I don't see a way he wins outside of a Hail Mary submission.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC 313 Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Ankalaev, Gaethje, Tsuruya, Diaz

Pereira vs. Ankalaev UFC 313 Picks & Stats