UFC 311 DFS Picks & Lineups: Makhachev vs. Moicano Cheat Sheet, 1/18

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano takes place this Saturday live from The Intuit Dome in Inglewood California. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00PM EST on FX/Disney+/ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00PM EST on FX/Disney+/ESPN+ and the Main Card at 10:00PM on ESPN+ PPV.
The Main Event features Renato Moicano stepping in on 36 hours' notice to take on the champion Islam Makhachev in what should be an action-packed fight.
Check out all the latest UFC 311 DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.
Now let's look at the UFC 311 cheat sheet and some plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC 311 DFS picks and lineups!
UFC 311 DFS Picks & Lineups: Makhachev vs. Moicano Cheat Sheet
Main Event DFS Picks
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano | 9400/8700 | - | Stackability: Low | -900/600 | NA |
The first PPV of the year and we already have last minute changes. Moicano is stepping in for Tsarukyan which should make for an interesting fight. Islam is going to be a massive favorite, and if he can recreate what RDA did to Moicano this should be a walk in the park. Moicano is really tough to play at $8700 with +600 odds but if he wins it has to be by finish so he would score well. Makhachev probably comes in 60% owned but that is going to be the price we pay with the late notice replacement.
Expensive DFS Picks
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Payton Talbott | 9900 | Raoni Barcelos | Somewhat-Safe | -1,050 | -250 |
Talbott is at the top this week but you are paying full price. If you are playing Arman or Merab you can make it work but if you are playing the 5 round fight favorites it is tough to make a lineup with Talbott. Talbott is averaging over 8 significant strikes per minute so any finish in the 1st or 2nd round probably comes up with a score over 100. You'll need closer to 110 for him to compete at this price though so he isn't a lock for lineups.
Umar Nurmagomedov | 9200 | Merab Dvalishvili | Somewhat-Safe | -270 | 300. |
Umar has five rounds to work with and he mixes in takedowns and wrestling seamlessly. The fight is heavily favored to go to a decision. If you just use his volume averages he averages 70+ fantasy points per 25 minutes without accounting for control time/non significant strikes or win bonus so it is hard to see him not hitting value at $9200 in a win. He's a safer play than Talbott for scoring highly in a win, but Merab is a tough test for anyone.
Rinya Nakamura | 9600 | Muin Gafurov | Somewhat-Safe | -550 | 180. |
Rinya is a great wrestler and he should go to it early and often here. He has a wrestling advantage over almost anyone in the division so if he uses it he should be able to rack up an easy 100+ points.
Jailton Almeida | 9500 | Serghei Spivac | Moderate | -485 | -200 |
Almeida is another high priced guy who will shoot takedowns relentlessly. He doesn't strike much on the feet but if he gets his opponent down, he'll land some ground and pound. He has the highest ITD of the other high-priced fighters except for Talbott so expect a finish from him.
Benardo Sopaj | 9300 | Ricky Turcios | Moderate | -270 | 200. |
Sopaj took a short notice debut and looked impressive until he was knocked out cleanly by a flying knee. Turcios always looks like he is doing a lot but he isn't someone who actually does much. I don't want to overthink this one but I think Sopaj should be lined closer to even money to finish this fight than the +200 that is listed. He can wrestle a bit but he isn't going to be shooting as frequently as Nakamura or Almeida.
Mid-Range DFS Picks
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Karol Rosa | 8600 | Ailin Perez | Moderate | -250 | 450. |
The mid range is wild this week with a lot of close fights but this is one that the odds really swung. I don't love Rosa because she can't finish anyone, but her striking volume is unmatched. This is a step up in competition for Perez so her takedowns shouldn't come as easily as they have been. As long as it is standing Rosa should be winning.
Jamahal Hill | 8200 | Jiri Prochazka | Moderate | -135 | 165. |
This is a close fight but I think Hill wins it. Hill is a quicker fighter and although he didn't look great against Pereira, he was only a few months removed from an achilles tear so I expect him to look improved from that. Jiri's defense is pretty terrible so I'm expecting Hill to utilize his jab efficiently before setting up a power shot.
Reinier de Ridder | 7900 | Kevin Holland | Somewhat-Risky | -112 | 275. |
I keep going back and forth on this fight. I hated how Reinier looked in his debut, but Holland has always struggled with his takedown defense. If Reinier can get the fight down Holland always struggles from the bottom. He should be chalky because of his odds value but he has a good chance to pay it off if he wins.
Kevin Holland | 8300 | Reinier de Ridder | Somewhat-Risky | -108 | 150. |
I'm putting Holland in here as well since this fight could be lopsided in either direction. De Ridder's takedowns and gas tanks looked terrible but Meerschaert is a much better grappler than Holland, but there is a chance De Ridder just isn't that good so we could get a dominant Holland victory.
Ailin Perez | 7600 | Karol Rosa | Somewhat-Risky | 205 | +1,000 |
Perez is either going to get smoked on the feet, or her wrestling is going to control this fight. She isn't going to get a finish but her path to victory is probably 3+ takedowns and a ton of control time which could be enough to hit the optimal lineup.
Azamat Bekoev | 8800 | Zach Reese | Somewhat-Risky | -205 | 150 |
I don't know where to put this fight so I'm putting it here. Bekoev is a -205 favorite at $8800 but Reese is also $8800 because of this being a late notice replacement. Bekoev has a ton of power and in Round 1 he should have the advantage, but the later this fight goes the more I think Reese is live. A high score could come out of this fight but with both of them being $8800 it is tough to play Reese so I'll side with Bekoev.
Jiri Prochazka | 8000 | Jamahal Hill | Risky | 114 | 175. |
Jiri can KO anyone in the division but this is a tough matchup for him. If Hill still doesn’t have his full mobility from his Achilles injury, he has a much better chance of winning but if this is a clean striking match, he is going to be behind.
Paydown DFS Picks
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Merab Dvalishvili | 7000 | Umar Nurmagomedov | Somewhat-Risky | 220 | 900. |
The Machine can put up a pace like no other in the UFC. He is going to keep attempting takedowns until he gets KO'd or the fight ends so he'll have the chance to rack up points for 25 minutes. He might lose the fight but even in a loss he should score 40+ pts which won't kill your lineup. He is a cash game staple at this price.
Clayton Carpenter | 7300 | Tagir Ulanbekov | Somewhat-Risky | 260 | 900. |
I don't really love the low end this week with how wide the lines are. Carpenter is a good prospect but they are really throwing him in the fire here. Tagir is a good wrestler and very unorthodox at times but Carpenter might be able to win some minutes here if Tagir gets sloppy. I don't think he can get the finish but scoring 80+ in a decision if he gets his wrestling going might be possible.
Billy Elekana | 7100 | Bogdan Guskov | Risky | 275 | #N/A |
Elekana is coming in on short notice and had said he wasn't really training since December which could be a problem, but that makes me think he is going to go for a KO here. Bogdan would have been the next one on the high priced list with how often someone gets KO'd here. High risk high reward pick.
Diego Ferreira | 7200 | Grant Dawson | Risky | 200 | 450. |
In his prime Ferreira dominates this fight, but Ferreira is celebrating his 40th birthday on Saturday night so this is not his prime. He is a great submission artist, and he has enough power to KO Dawson, but he probably has to weather the early storm if he wants to win this fight.
Serghei Spivac | 6700 | Jailton Almeida | Risky | 370 | 600. |
Spivac has some wrestling of his own but seeing what Almeida did to Blaydes makes me think the first round is going to be survival mode for Spivac. If he does survive the early takedown attempts he could turn the fight in the second round.
Muin Gafurov | 6600 | Rinya Nakamura | Risky | 410 | 800. |
Gafurov has decent striking but this all comes down to if Rinya gets his takedowns. I don't think he is going to be able to, but all fights start on the feet so maybe he can land something before the takedowns come.
Ricky Turcios | 6900 | Benardo Sopaj | Risky | 220 | 650. |
I don't like Turcios fight style and think this is a tough matchup for him. Turcios will throw a lot but doesn't really have much on his strikes and he will throw strikes that have no chance of landing sometimes. He is pretty durable so this should go to a decision, but even when he lands more shots than his opponents he doesn't make enough of an impact.
Raoni Barcelos | 6300 | Payton Talbott | Risky | 675 | +1,400 |
Barcelos is going to the slaughter against Talbott this week. Talbott is going to be way ahead on the feet, but Raoni can wrestle a little bit. If he doesn't wrestle, he probably gets melted in the second round.
UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC 311 Lineup
MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs
- Dvalishvili, Perez, Carpenter, Spivac
Makhachev vs. Moicano UFC 311 Picks & Stats
Islam Makhachev | vs | Renato Moicano |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 26-1-0 | Record | Record: 20-5-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 2 |
12 | Subs | 10 |
-900 | Vegas Odds | +600 |
Merab Dvalishvili | vs | Umar Nurmagomedov |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 18-4-0 | Record | Record: 18-0-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 2 |
1 | Subs | 7 |
220 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Jiri Prochazka | vs | Jamahal Hill |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 30-5-1 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 (1 NC) |
26 | Knockouts | 7 |
3 | Subs | 0 |
114 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
Kevin Holland | vs | Reinier de Ridder |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 26-12-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 18-2-0 |
14 | Knockouts | 4 |
8 | Subs | 12 |
-108 | Vegas Odds | -112 |
0 | ||
Payton Talbott | vs | Raoni Barcelos |
$9,900 | DFS Salary | $6,300 |
Record: 9-0-0 | Record | Record: 18-5-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-105 | Vegas Odds | 675 |
Jailton Almeida | vs | Serghei Spivac |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
Record: 21-3-0 | Record | Record: 17-4-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 2 |
13 | Subs | 7 |
-485 | Vegas Odds | 370 |
Bogdan Guskov | vs | Billy Elekana |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 16-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
14 | Knockouts | 3 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
-345 | Vegas Odds | 275 |
Grant Dawson | vs | Diego Ferreira |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 22-2-1 | Record | Record: 19-5-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 5 |
13 | Subs | 7 |
-245 | Vegas Odds | 200 |
Zachary Reese | vs | Azamat Bekoev |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 18-3-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
2 | Subs | 8 |
170 | Vegas Odds | -205 |
Karol Rosa | vs | Ailin Perez |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 18-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | 205 |
Rinya Nakamura | vs | Muin Gafurov |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
Record: 9-0-0 | Record | Record: 19-6-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 10 |
1 | Subs | 7 |
-550 | Vegas Odds | 410 |
Ricky Turcios | vs | Benardo Sopaj |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
220 | Vegas Odds | -270 |
Tagir Ulanbekov | vs | Clayton Carpenter |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 15-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 2 |
8 | Subs | 4 |
-325 | Vegas Odds | 260 |