UFC 306 DFS Picks & Lineups: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Cheat Sheet, 9/14

UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili takes place this Saturday live from The Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 7:30 PM EST on ESPN News/ ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 10:00 PM EST on ESPN+ PPV. That said, you'll want to be locked into the event with our UFC 306 DFS picks and lineups!

Two belts are on the line this week, the first in a trilogy fight between Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso. The event is headlined by “Suga” Sean O’Malley taking on Merab Dvalishvili in what should be an action-packed fight. 

This is the first combat event to take place at The Sphere and should be one of the best UFC events of all time. Check out all the latest UFC 306 DFS picks and lineups plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below. 

As always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at my O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili cheat sheet for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC 306 DFS picks and lineups!

UFC 306 DFS Picks & Lineups: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Cheat Sheet, 9/14

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

The main event this week features Sean "Suga" O'Malley against "The Machine" Merab Dvalishvili. Both of these fighters have been great for DK, especially Merab as he relentlessly goes for takedowns and has put up 125+ DK points multiple times. I'm going to be playing one of these fighters in my lineups since if Merab wins it is going to be a decision with a ton of takedowns, and if O'Malley wins, he probably ends up KOing Merab early. Although Merab has never been KO'd he has been clipped in multiple fights and if O'Malley lands clean, he probably KOs him. I'll be about 35% O'Malley and 45% Merab in my DK lineups on the fight.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

Outside of the five round fights Rosas has the highest upside. He likely wins this in the first round, and he has shown that especially early on he can muscle takedowns and once he gets on the back, he locks in submissions fairly quickly. He'll need to likely score 110+ to get to the optimal lineup, but with only 10 fights on the card there are ways he gets there with 100+ as well which is almost a lock for him. I think he ends up being the highest owned fighter on the slate even though he is $500 more than the next priced fighter.

The mid-range and Rosas are going to be the king this week with multiple five round fights on the card, so everyone from this part down in the Expensive tier is a big gap below Rosas. Van puts up enough volume to score well in a decision, but he has one major red flag, which is that he was KO'd only three months ago. His opponent in that fight, Charles Johnson, is a much better fighter than Chairez so I'm not as worried as I would be. Van should win this by decision, put up 135-150 strikes and probably score 85-90pts in a decision unless he can get a knockdown or KO in which case his ceiling will be much higher.

Zellhuber is a talented striker, and he even has a submission skills advantage here so he should be able to hold his own or win this fight wherever it goes. Zellhuber can also put up some serious volume, so if this gets out of Round 1, I think he'll be able to control the fight.

Jauregui is the more talented striker, and she should win this fight, but this fight likely goes to decision. At $9200 I don't think she does enough to get to the optimal lineup. She is strictly a contrarian play to get off of the Rosas chalk.

I think this fight should be closer to a 50/50 fight. I know it was a tough fight week for Lopes last time these two matched up, but he didn't look great against Dan Ige who was essentially coming off the couch for the fight. Ortega is the toughest task Lopes has fought since he can mix up his striking and grappling. Ortega has been one of the most durable fighters in the UFC and unless he gets hurt, I think this fight goes to decision.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

This is the fight to target and potentially stack up this week. Their last matchup ended with both fighters scoring 90+ in a draw so if Grasso wins a decision having her score 100+ with the underdog Valentina getting to 80-90 pts is clearly in play. I'll be playing someone from this fight in all of my lineups. These women have fought 9 rounds against each other in their past two fights so they know each other well and it should be a back-and-forth fight. The key here is that when they are in the clinch both of these women land short punches which even though they aren't deemed "Significant strikes" they still earn 0.2 DK pts, and with them landing around 100 of these each last fight it really makes the floor for both of them extremely high.

The same breakdown as above, she is getting older so I'm leaning towards Grasso, but I just want as much of this fight as I can get.

Torres is a pretty KO or bust fighter, but I think he is the better striker in this matchup and if anyone is going to wrestle it should be Torre. He could win this by KO or submission, but the path to least resistance in submission so hopefully he uses his wrestling.

Dumont is always successful using her wrestling and I expect that again here. Aldana has some power so if anyone is getting a KO here it is probably her, but I don't want to bang on a low volume fighter priced between Grasso and Valentina, so I'll be heavy on Dumont here.

Osbourne has faced some of the better fighters in the division and while he isn't great anywhere, he is well rounded. At +130 and only $7600 he has some good odds value, so I expect him to be one of the higher owned mid-range dogs. Rodriguez has a decent ground game, so he has to be aware of it. I'll have about 25% of these guys in my lineup as when Osbourne does lose, he normally gives up a big score.

Ortega has fought everyone in this weight class so he should be able to hold his own with Lopes and even if he loses this fight, I don't think he gets blown out or finished. Ortega can finish anyone with his submission skills so he is a decent play, but I think these two might be evenly matched with the winner scoring 75 in a decision.

Bahamondes is massive for this division at 6'3, 155 lbs so he can pose problems for anyone. If he can keep his range, he could point fight and get the win, and he is coming off of a massive first round KO, so he has upside. I just like Torres better in this fight but I'm not looking to fully fade Bahamondes if I'm making multiple lineups.

Paydown UFC DFS Picks

There really isn't much in the low range this week with only four fighters under $7500. Chairez takes on Van who is a slow starter and came off a KO three months ago. Chairez doesn't wrestle so this is going to be a striking battle, I think he is a step behind but if there is a time to catch Van it is in Round 1.

Ribovics is strong and he could be able to outmuscle Zellhuber. He has power in his hands, but he isn't the most technical and I don't expect him to throw a ton of volume. He is probably the lowest priced fighter that I will actually include in my lineup.

This is going to be another striking battle, and I expect it to be pretty low volume. Souza is going to be a little behind and I expect her to drop a decision here.

Aori is tough, but he is going against a mega prospect in Rosas. He isn't great at stopping takedowns and it may take Rosas only one to get this fight done.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC 306 Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Merab, Valentina, Ortega, Dumont

O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili UFC 306 Picks & Stats