MMA DFS Playbook UFC Fight Night Sandhagen vs Song: Top DraftKings DFS Picks
The UFC heads back to the Apex in Las Vegas this week for UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Song. The prelims kick at 4:00 PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM also on ESPN+.
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night Sandhagen vs Song
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Cory Sandhagen vs Song Yadong | 9200/7000 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -190/+165 | 110 |
Two strikers meet in this week’s main event where Sandhagen is a moderate -190 favorite. Sandhagen has been in back-to-back five-round fights and has shown he can keep a pace for all 25 minutes landing 128 and 169 strikes in losing efforts. I expect Sandhagen to dominate the longer the fight goes and put up a decent score. Yadong is only 24 years old and has shown in previous three-round fights that he does slow down the later the fight goes. Song has big power in his counter punches, so he'll look to neutralize Sandhagen’s volume by landing the bigger shots. My Prediction 49-46 Sandhagen both fighters are viable in tournaments and should be the first two pieces into your cash game lineups. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Joe Pyfer | 9700 | Alen Amedovski | Somewhat-Safe | -460 | -250 |
Pyfer is the most expensive fighter on the slate and has shown good power in his win on Dana White's Contender Series. Amedovski has a suspect chin and has only landed 9 significant strikes in 3 UFC fights, so he hasn't had any success when fighting up at this level. Pyfer doesn't have much volume to his game, but his finishing ability still gives him a massive ceiling. I think Pyfer gets it done early and scores well on DraftKings. My only concern for Pyfer is his $9700 price tag at only -460 when fighters like Chimaev and Nunes have been -1000 favorites and only in the $9500/9600 range. | |||||
Daniel Zellhuber | 9400 | Trey Ogden | Somewhat-Safe | -320 | +110 |
Zellhuber comes in with a 12-0 record that should stay untarnished after his fight Saturday. Zellhuber is massive for the 155 lb division standing at 6'1 with a 77-inch reach that he uses extremely effectively. I expect Zellhuber to pick apart Ogden with the jab as he coasts to a victory. Ogden showed no resistance on the feet against Jordan Leavitt, who is a submission specialist, so I expect Zellhuber to carve him up here. | |||||
Nikolas Motta | 9300 | Cameron VanCamp | Somewhat-Safe | -190 | +120 |
Both fighters in this bout are coming in off of losses in their UFC debuts but this fight should be much closer than their first outings. Motta is the better striker of the two and although he is giving up 4 inches of reach, it shouldn't matter as much since VanCamp normally wins his fights by submission. Motta makes for a strong GPP leverage play since most people will avoid paying this high for a fighter who is only -190 to win the fight, but he likely finds a KO if he does get the win so he could score well against | |||||
Trevin Giles | 9100 | Louis Cosce | Moderate | -210 | +110 |
Giles is one of the most hit-or-miss fighters on the UFC roster and depending on what version we see Saturday night I expect him to look like he should have been a -500 favorite or a +200 dog. His pace isn't very high, so he'll need to find a finish to make the optimal lineup, and while Cosce was finished in his last fight out it was more so due to his cardio failing him after he landed 86 significant strikes through only two rounds. Cosce hasn't fought in nearly two years, so it'll be interesting to see what improvements he has made, I'll likely be playing the underdog in this fight or passing on it. | |||||
Loma Lookboonmee | 9500 | Denise Gomes | Moderate | -205 | +380 |
This price is too high for the type of fighter Lookboonmee is. Gomes has shown to be willing to throw volume landing 100ss in her DWCS fight so maybe she can force Loma to throw more than normal, especially with this being in the smaller cage. Loma has mixed in wrestling in her fights in the UFC but she prefers to keep it standing for the most part. I'm expecting Loma to win but not score as well as the other high-priced options. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Anthony Hernandez | 8700 | Marc-Andre Barriault | Moderate | -195 | +175 |
Hernandez needs to push a pace to win a fight which normally works out for his DraftKings scores in a win. If he can take over the fight with his wrestling I expect him to score 90+ in a win here, but in his losses, he normally flames out terribly. Target him in GPP lineups that need upside, but he may be a cash game fade since his two losses in the UFC he scored a combined 9 fantasy points. | |||||
Javid Basharat | 8600 | Tony Gravely | Moderate | -165 | +140 |
Basharat brings his undefeated record into a matchup with the powerful Gravely. Basharat needs to withstand the early storm as Tony is known to gas the later the fight goes. Gravely packs a lot of power so Javid may opt to start the fight more cautiously which isn't great for DK scoring, but I think he finds a late round 2 or early round 3 finish. | |||||
Gillian Robertson | 8500 | Mariya Agapova | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +130 |
Robertson is a submission or bust fighter in almost every one of her matchups and that doesn't change here. Agapova has nearly zero get-up games so if this fight hits the ground, it should be one-way traffic. The red flag here is that Robertson has horrible offensive wrestling landing only 40% of her takedown attempts, so if she can't get the fight to the ground, she likely losses. | |||||
Gregory Rodrigues | 8200 | Chidi Njokuani | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +165 |
Both fighters in this fight are live here and the fight doesn't go to a decision is -250 so I'm going to break down the full fight here. Rodrigues is the more well-rounded fighter who should see success if he can get the fight to the ground while Chidi will look to keep it standing to land his powerful strikes. Either side of this fight is good for tournaments with their massive upside but I personally believe the line is showing a lot of recency bias towards Chidi since he knocked out his last opponent in the first round. Chidi was taken down and controller along the cage for the majority of the first round in that fight, and I believe Rodrigues will look to do the same. Rodrigues should be the less owned fighter at $8200 and +105 underdog, so I'll look to shed some ownership and lock Rodrigues into my GPPs. | |||||
Andre Fili | 8300 | Bill Algeo | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +330 |
Fili needs to look to slow down Algeo's pace here and I think he accomplishes that by mixing in the wrestling. Algeo never stops coming forward, and being this fight is in the smaller cage of the UFC Apex I'm concerned Fili gasses if he can't keep this fight in the clinch or on the ground. Both sides are viable for lineups, but who with Algeo's durability and other fighters in this salary range having higher upside I would look to avoid Fili if possible. | |||||
Sara McMann | 7800 | Aspen Ladd | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +550 |
McMann is one of the most talented wrestlers in the woman's 135 lb division and she'll look to utilize it early here against Ladd. McMann at age 41 has fought the best in the world during her UFC run and in 17 fights her only opponents who she didn't successfully take down were Amanda Nunes and Ronda Rousey(who didn't attempt a TD) so it isn't will this fight hit the ground, but rather will Ladd be able to get up when it does and will McMann's gas tank hold on. I'm going to lean towards McMann in this spot, but a late finish for Ladd once McMann gasses isn't out of the question. Ladd missed weight, but only by 2 lbs so I expect this fight to move on as scheduled. | |||||
Mariya Agapova | 7700 | Gillian Robertson | Risky | +125 | +275 |
If Agapova keeps the fight standing she can likely outlast Robertson in a decision win, but her ceiling isn't very high. She likely ends up being one of the lower-owned fighters on the slate and someone I'll likely avoid. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Louis Cosce | 7100 | Trevin Giles | Somewhat-Risky | +180 | +350 |
Cosce is off of a two-year layoff but is only 27 years old so he likely made improvements. Cosce likely comes with high ownership, but his ceiling is there to make the optimal lineup. | |||||
Cameron VanCamp | 6900 | Nikolas Motta | Somewhat-Risky | +170 | +250 |
VanCamp looked completely outmatched in his debut but now moves down to the 155 lb division against Motta. VanCamp has the advantage if the fight hits the ground so he’s well worth the $6900 salary for his odds. | |||||
Damon Jackson | 7200 | Pat Sabatini | Risky | +155 | +600 |
The leach needs to drag this fight into deeper waters against Sabatini for him to be able to have a change here. Sabatini is unwilling to strike so he'll look to get the fight down quickly, but I think Jackson is good enough to neutralize his ground game. I'm looking for Jackson to find a late finish, otherwise he likely losses a decision. | |||||
Rodrigo Nascimento | 7400 | Tanner Boser | Risky | +145 | +215 |
Nascimento has never seen a round 3, but that could change here. For most of his career, Boser fought from the outside looking to land low kicks and jabs to outpoint his opponent and I think that likely happens here. Nascimento is a decent-sized dog, but he fights for your money win or loses as he's willing to bite down on the mouthpiece and move forward to eventually get the fight to the ground and look for a submission. Boser doesn't show much offensive wrestling to his name but in 29 professional fights, he has never been submitted. I'm leaning that this fight goes to a decision or Boser finds the second round or late finish. | |||||
Trey Ogden | 6800 | Daniel Zellhuber | Risky | +270 | +550 |
Ogden is a hard pass for me here. You can't be outstruck by Jordan Leavitt and expect to last long in the UFC. | |||||
Tony Gravely | 7600 | Javid Basharat | Risky | +140 | +380 |
Powerful puncher and aggressive wrestler, he has the chance for a huge score with the early KO or by chain wrestling his way to a decision. His gas tank is the major red flag as he hasn't been able to go three hard rounds even when he is in top control for the majority of the first two. | |||||
Marc-Andre Barriault | 7500 | Anthony Hernandez | Risky | +170 | +300 |
Barriault mainly strikes and doesn't throw with much volume. As someone who normally takes over the later the fight goes, I don't see him being able to do that to Hernandez here so he may look to push the pace earlier than usual. | |||||
Denise Gomes | 6700 | Loma Lookboonmee | Risky | +175 | +500 |
Gomes throws good volume, and at +175 for only $6700 she allows you to fit in almost any other fighters you want in the lineup. Don't expect a score of 100+ but if she scores you 80 in a decision win she could wind up on the optimal. |
Sample DFS Lineup
Live Dogs
Algeo, Jackson, Cosce, VanCamp, Nascimento
Stats and Picks
Cory Sandhagen | vs | Song Yadong |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 19-6-1 (1 NC) |
6 | Knockouts | 8 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
-190 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
Chidi Njokuani | vs | Gregory Rodrigues |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 22-7-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
14 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
Andre Fili | vs | Bill Algeo |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 21-9-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-6-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 6 |
-130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
Joe Pyfer | vs | Alen Amedovski |
$9,700 | DFS Salary | $6,500 |
Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 8 |
3 | Subs | 0 |
-460 | Vegas Odds | +370 |
Taner Boser | vs | Rodrigo Nascimento |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 20-8-1 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 (1 NC) |
11 | Knockouts | 2 |
2 | Subs | 6 |
-170 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
0 | ||
Anthony Hernandez | vs | Marc-Andre Barriault |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 (1 NC) |
1 | Knockouts | 9 |
6 | Subs | 1 |
-195 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
Damon Jackson | vs | Pat Sabatini |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 21-4-1 | Record | Record: 17-3-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 2 |
15 | Subs | 10 |
+165 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
Aspen Ladd | vs | Sara McMann |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 1 |
1 | Subs | 5 |
-140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
Trevin Giles | vs | Louis Cosce |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
-210 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
Denise Gomes | vs | Loma Lookboonmee |
$6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 1 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
+175 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Trey Ogden | vs | Daniel Zellhuber |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 12-0-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 7 |
11 | Subs | 2 |
+270 | Vegas Odds | -320 |
Mariya Agapova | vs | Gillian Robertson |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-7-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 1 |
5 | Subs | 7 |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
Tony Gravely | vs | Javid Basharat |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 23-7-0 | Record | Record: 12-0-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 6 |
+140 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
Nickolas Motta | vs | Cameron VanCamp |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 15-6-1 |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Subs | 9 |
-190 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
PrizePicks Props
Fili O 50.5 SS landed
Zellhuber O 103.5 Fantasy Points
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