Saturday Afternoon Update: The Chase Sherman vs. Josh Parisian fight is OFF.

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Lemos kicks off with the prelims at 4:00 PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card on ESPN+ at 7:00 PM. 

Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

 

MMA DFS Playbook

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Lemos

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos

8800/7400

-

Stackability: High

-225/ +190

+165/+300

Two potential title contenders meet in this week’s main event which should see a ton of volume, especially in the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex. Rodriguez is the rightful favorite in this spot and the longer the fight goes the more likely she is to take over. I expect Lemos to be competitive or win the early rounds as her power is some of the strongest in the division, but her gas tank has been mediocre. Lemos is also more likely to wrestle, and with a suspect gas tank, she needs to utilize it and claim some control time in order to make it the full five rounds. Rodriguez has shown some issues getting off her back or off the cage once she is controlled as Dern and Waterson both controlled her for nearly a full round in their fight, but Rodriguez has good enough takedown defense to stop most takedowns. For DraftKings, both fighters are in play since Lemos can win this early, or Rodriguez is going to run away with it as the fight goes on. My official pick is Rodriguez by Round 4 KO.
      

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Miranda Maverick

9400

Shanna Young

Somewhat-Safe

-645 

-105 

The highest-priced fighter on the slate and for good reason. This fight happened three years ago, and Maverick ran through Young in under three minutes, and while I expect Maverick to win again I think Young should be improved since then. Young moved to train full-time at Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas about a year ago so I'm expecting her to be more competitive here, but I still think Maverick wins this fight 90% of the time. I'll be playing Maverick in GPPs and Cash games.
Mario Bautista

9100

Benito Lopez

Somewhat-Safe

-300 

+165 

Bautista mixes in his wrestling and striking to take advantage of his opponent's weaknesses as well as anyone else on this week's card. His ability to mix in the striking and takedowns gives him one of the higher floors of the high-priced fighters even in a decision win. The red flag in this fight is we have no idea what to expect from Lopez. Lopez is 10-1 as a professional and 28 years old but hasn't fought in over three years. Fighters normally make dramatic improvements from age 25 to 28 so I won't be all-in on Bautista only because I don't know what version of Lopez shows up on Saturday.
Grant Dawson

9000

Mark Madsen

Somewhat-Safe

-215 

+200 

***Dawson Missed Weight by 1.5 lbs fight likely still on***  Dawson loves to move forward and control the fight with his wrestling and has scored at least one takedown in all of his fights in the UFC, but this week could be different. On most slates, Dawson is one of my targets as he scores 90+ in nearly all of his wins, but Madsen is an Olympic silver medalist in wrestling so Dawson may have to get it done on the feet to take advantage of Madsen's subpar striking and without his takedowns, I don't know how well he is going to score. If Dawson scores takedowns and controls this fight, he should make a push into the top 15 at the absolutely loaded 155lb division.
Jake Hadley

9200

Carlos Candelario

Moderate

-255 

+225 

I was high on Hadley's wrestling when he came into the UFC, but he hasn't used it as much as I expected. Candelario has shown he can hang out on the ground as all of his fights have seemingly turned into grappling exchanges, so it'll be interesting when the fight hits the mat how it turns out. I won't be rostering much Hadley, but I believe out of the high-end guys he comes with the lowest ownership so if his wrestling shines here he could be the low-owned fighter to break the slate.
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

8900

Darrick Minner

Moderate

-210 

+140 

This is more of a play on Darrick Minner than backing Shayilan. Minner is known for having 7 minutes of cardio so if Shayilan can survive this fight early he should be able to take over and score well if he finds the finish. Shayilan has shown he can wrestle, but he has been reversed in almost all of his fights at some point before regaining control. Minner is a much better wrestler than Sean Soriano and his submission game is much more dangerous than TJ Brown's so this is Shayilan's toughest task. I'll be overweight on Minner as I'm a sucker for dogs with first-round finish potential but if Minner fails to find the finish, Shayilan is going to control the latter half of the fight.
      

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Tagir Ulanbekov

8600

Nate Maness

Moderate

-215 

+300 

Tagir is going to look to wrestle as he always does which gives him a high floor, but his ceiling is capped by his inability to finish anyone. Tagir has great cardio and even in his last fight where he was dropped early, he came back and arguably won the last two rounds. Maness has shown good takedown defense in terms of stopping takedowns, but he gets controlled in almost all of his fights. If Tagir can get the takedowns and control time that comes along with it, he should be able to score 90-100+ even in a decision victory. If the fight stays standing Tagir showed vs Tim Elliott that he can hold his own, but he would rather this fight gets to the ground and stays there.
Chase Sherman

8200

Josh Parisian

Moderate

-130 

+150 

I was on team fade Chase Sherman for most of his career, but since his return to the UFC, he showed he has improved in all areas of his game. Round 1 Alexander Romanov is an absolute monster and Sherman was able to get up a few times from his takedowns so I am throwing out the fluke takedowns of Parisian's last fight and don't expect this fight to spend much time on the ground unless someone gets knocked down. On the feet, the fight should stay close, but I think Sherman eventually out volumes him and runs away with the fight. The fight goes pretty late but the O/U for it is only 1.5 rounds so if the odds are right whoever wins this fight is going to end up on the optimal lineup in this 8200/8000 range.
Daniel Rodriguez

7800

Neil Magny

Somewhat-Risky

+105 

+165 

Rodriguez lands at some of the highest volume in UFC history and as long as he can keep this fight standing, I think he has a good chance to win it. Magny has slowed in his recent fights and his best days look to be behind him. The UFC is looking for a changing of the guard fight, but Magny is still a tough task for those looking to enter the upper ranks of the division. I think it is a coin toss of a fight but am prioritizing Rodriguez on DraftKings as someone who should be able to score better in a win and as a way to save salary.
Ramona Pascual

7700

Tamires Vidal

Somewhat-Risky

+110 

+425 

Pascual has looked to push wrestling in all of her fights in the UFC and while she hasn't been successful yet, this is a step down in competition compared to her last fights. If Pascual gets her wrestling, going she should be able to score well in a win and for $7700 I'll be taking some shots. It's a low-risk play since Vidal isn't going to be played much and even in a loss Pascual has shown she can score 30+ pts and keep line-ups alive for cashing.
Polyana Viana

8300

Jinh Yu Frey

Somewhat-Risky

-140 

+275 

Armbar or bust. Viana hasn't shown much in her time in the UFC, but she has stayed around by finding three first-round submissions, two of them being armbars from guard which are pretty fluke in the UFC. I won't be playing this fight heavily but of the two fighters, Viana has been the only one to show any sort of upside in her wins within the octagon. 
Johnny Munoz

8700

Liudvik Sholinian

Somewhat-Risky

-240

+180

I should have made Munoz higher up in the rankings but his low-volume striking scares me in this spot. If Munoz gets the fight to the ground, he should be able to control Liudvik and find the submission, but Liudvik showed pretty good defensive wrestling in a matchup against a better wrestler in Jack Shore his last time out. If the fight stays standing it turns into a sloppy low scoring fight that I'll be looking to avoid.
Neil Magny

8400

Daniel Rodriguez

Risky

-125 

+500 

Magny is never played on DraftKings because he never finds a finish. With that said if everyone from $8500-$7700 goes to a decision, Magny could end up on the optimal lineup. I will not be playing much but even if you sprinkle Magny into 15-20% of your lineups you will probably end up overweight to the field. GPP play only.
      

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Darrick Minner

7300

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Somewhat-Risky

+180 

+300 

Minner is a kill-or-be-killed type of fighter, so you need him in some of your line-ups. I will be overweight to Minner on the field because I don't trust Shayilan to make smart decisions on the ground and think this is a step up for him in competition. My official pick is Minner by sub R1 (guillotine) and already have bets on U2.5 rounds, and the,fight ends by submission.
Mark Madsen

7200

Grant Dawson

Somewhat-Risky

+185

+800 

Madsen is the most talented fighter in this lower range outside of Lemos and while I do not think he has a great ceiling, if Dawson can't get takedowns the fight should be competitive. I'll be taking some shots on Madsen but because of his low ceiling, he really needs to win and have the other fighters around him lose otherwise they will likely pass him in terms of scoring.
Carlos Candelario

7000

Jake Hadley

Risky

+215 

+650 

Candelario should be able to survive the fight for some time and I think his counter-grappling should be able to keep him out of trouble on the ground and he may even find himself controlling portions of this fight. Neither of these fighters has been KO'd before and both have more wins by submission than KO so I expect this to reach the judges’ scorecards and for $7000 that may be enough for Candelario to make the optimal in decision victory.
Benito Lopez

7100

Mario Bautista

Risky

+250 

+550 

A long layoff is normally a red flag at $7100 but sometimes we need to embrace what we don't know. I'll have some Lopez in case his time off and training at Team Alpha Male has led to drastic improvements, but he's as likely to come out flat and rusty as he is to showing improvements. I think Bautista is the more talented fighter here and wins 8/10 times so make sure you don't play too much Lopez.
Liudvik Sholinian

7500

Johnny Munoz

Risky

+200 

+750 

I never thought Liudvik was that talented when he was on The Ultimate Fighter reality show, but he does always look to push a pace and is comfortable fighting even when fatigue sets in. It'll be tough for him to find a finish as I don't think he has enough power at this level to really hurt someone but the longer the fight goes the more of a chance he has to start winning. 
Nate Maness

7600

Tagir Ulanbekov

Risky

+185 

+400 

Maness is moving to a new weight class down at 125 lbs after being dominated in his last two fights up at 135 lbs.  It’s hard to try to predict how the extra cut is going to impact him, but he was one of the first fighters on the scale so if he can consistently make this weight he is going to look massive at 5’10 as a flyweight.  I’ll have some shares in my multi-entry contests, but I think Tagir is the more skilled fighter and eventually gets past the size of Maness.
Shanna Young

6800

Miranda Maverick

Risky

+480 

+1100 

Unless Young can find a fluke submission or KO it is going to be hard for her to stay competitive in this fight. This is a rematch from when Maverick was only 22 years old so if she couldn't beat her then she won't be able to stop her now. I'll be fading Young but in woman's MMA the armbar from guard is always in play so if you want to play the lowest owner and cheaper fighter on the slate 

Sample DFS Lineup

Table
Description automatically generated

Live Dogs

Lemos, Minner, Madsen, Rodriguez

Stats and Picks

   

Marina Rodriguez

vs

Amanda Lemos

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

Record: 16-1-2 

Record

Record: 12-2-1 

6

Knockouts

7

1

Subs

3

-225 

Vegas Odds

+190 

   

Neil Magny

vs

Daniel Rodriguez

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

Record: 26-10-0 

Record

Record: 17-2-0 

7

Knockouts

8

3

Subs

4

-125 

Vegas Odds

+105 

   

Chase Sherman

vs

Josh Parisian

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 16-10-0 

Record

Record: 15-5-0 

15

Knockouts

11

0

Subs

2

-130 

Vegas Odds

+110 

   

Tagir Ulanbekov

vs

Nate Maness

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 13-2-0 

Record

Record: 14-2-0 

1

Knockouts

5

6

Subs

3

-215 

Vegas Odds

+185 

   

Grant Dawson

vs

Mark Madsen

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

Record: 18-1-1 

Record

Record: 12-0-0 

4

Knockouts

3

12

Subs

3

-215 

Vegas Odds

+185

 

0

 

Darrick Minner

vs

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

$7,300

DFS Salary

$8,900

Record: 26-13-0 

Record

Record: 38-10-0 

1

Knockouts

18

22

Subs

10

+180 

Vegas Odds

-210 

   

Miranda Maverick

vs

Shanna Young

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,800

Record: 12-4-0 

Record

Record: 8-4-0

1

Knockouts

2

6

Subs

3

-645 

Vegas Odds

+480

   

Mario Bautista

vs

Benito Lopez

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

Record: 10-2-0 

Record

Record:  10-1-0

3

Knockouts

3

4

Subs

2

-300 

Vegas Odds

+250

   

Polyana Viana

vs

Jinh Yu Frey

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

Record: 12-5-0 

Record

Record: 11-7-0 

4

Knockouts

1

8

Subs

2

-140 

Vegas Odds

+120 

   

Liudvik Sholinian

vs

Johnny Munoz

$7,500

DFS Salary

#$8,700

Record: 9-3-1 

Record

Record:   11-2-0

1

Knockouts

2

3

Subs

7

+200 

Vegas Odds

-240

   

Carlos Candelario

vs

Jake Hadley

$7,000

DFS Salary

$9,200

Record: 8-2-0 

Record

Record: 8-1-0

2

Knockouts

2

3

Subs

4

+215 

Vegas Odds

-255

   

Tamires Vidal

vs

Ramona Pascual

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 6-1-0 

Record

Record: 6-4-0 

0

Knockouts

4

2

Subs

1

-130 

Vegas Odds

+110 

PrizePicks Props

Sherman O 45.5 SS

Maverick U 12.5 Fight Time Minutes

Magny U 75.5 Fantasy Points

 

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