I won't sugar coat it, this is one of the poorer UFC offerings in a long time. It was a weak card from the outset that has also suffered numerous late replacements and weigh in misses. Keep your head on a swivel right up until lock because fights can and will be canceled. That said, it's likely to be a beautifully chaotic night on DK. The Stolze-Gooden fight pricing allows for any build you like and plenty of leverage on the Gooden side. You definitely want to leave a large amount of salary on the table.
| Main Event | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Uriah Hall vs Sean Strickland | 6900/9300 | - | Stackability: Safe | 170/ -200 |
| This ME is a tough nut to crack for DK. Strickland tends to push the pace but was slowed in his win over Jotko. Hall also slows the pace, though more through waiting on counters than pressing to the cage. So does Strickland get into the optimal even in a 5 round win? It's not a lock. Plus Hall has a knack for late comebacks with his insane power/hand speed. It's okay as a cash stack for how close it should be. | ||||
| Expensive | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Bryan Barberena | 9600 | Jason Witt | Somewhat-Safe | -275 |
| Barbs gameplan is to out-work opponents relentlessly and use his iron chin to stand up to return fire. That worked well until running into Vincente Luque who broke him. He wasn't ready the next time out losing to Randy Brown but did get back in the win column against Anthony Ivy who offered little challenge. Witt is the opposite. He's got a glass jaw. Barberena will find a KO if he isn't held on the mat. | ||||
| Rafa Garcia | 9500 | Chris Gruetzemacher | Moderate | -310 |
| Rafa is an odd price as someone who didn't look great in his UFC debut. It was short notice, though. Gruetz also looked terrible in his return to action recently. He didn't stop hardly a single shot and got blown out of the building. Garcia will have to duplicate that at this price. | ||||
| Cheyanne Buys | 8900 | Gloria de Paula | Moderate | -165 |
| How much can we trust someone who had no answer for basic head and arm throws at this price? She isn't facing an opponent with any grappling either but still. Not where I'm looking to invest. | ||||
| Mid-Range | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Kyung Ho Kang | 8500 | Rani Yahya | Moderate | -120 |
| If you can fight a smart fight against Yahya he's fairly easy to out-strike and out-work. You just need to avoid letting him get a hold of any of your limbs. | ||||
| Melsik Baghdasaryan | 8600 | Collin Anglin | Somewhat-Risky | -145 |
| Melsik is very raw and perhaps rushed to the UFC. He was a killer at the lower level but found decent competition a bit different in DWCS. Maybe another training camp helps catch him up. | ||||
| Ryan Benoit | 8300 | Zarrukh Adashev | Somewhat-Risky | -135 |
| Benoit would have an easier time if he was willing to wrestle ever. He generally avoids it despite a background in wrestling. He should still be able win a stand up affair but that's much less certain. | ||||
| Orion Cosce | 8800 | Phil Rowe | Somewhat-Risky | -145 |
| Cosce is aggressive which we like but he's far from a slam dunk. Rowe is going to have an 8" reach advantage to keep Cosce off him. If Cosce does find his way inside he could be in business. | ||||
| Kai Kamaka | 8200 | Danny Chavez | Risky | -115 |
| When Kamaka puts it all together he looks scary. When he doesn't simple mistakes do him in. A lot is going to depend on Chavez and his gameplan. | ||||
| Danny Chavez | 8000 | Kai Kamaka | Risky | -105 |
| Chavez is a personal favorite of mine so I'm still stinging from the no show he had against a very beatable Jared Gordon. Kamaka doesn't present many similar challenges but he's better in other areas. If Chavez is who I thought he was the price is nice. | ||||
| Pay-Downs | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Niklas Stolze | 7000 | Jared Gooden | Somewhat-Risky | -190 |
| Stolze will be mega chalk at the price. He's a solid favorite facing late replacement Jared Gooden and since DK doesn't change released prices he stays as one of the cheapest options. In GPPs he isn't a must play as Gooden is durable and Stolze isn't a proven finisher. | ||||
| Jared Gooden | 6800 | Niklas Stolze | Somewhat-Risky | +160 |
| Gooden coming in as a late replacement creates an interest pricing anomaly. He's a decent size dog so they priced him very low as Stolze was already priced at $7000. He'll also offer huge leverage as Stolze will be an odds value. | ||||
| Jason Witt | 6600 | Bryan Barberena | Somewhat-Risky | +220 |
| If Witt can avoid taking much damage Barberena can be taken down. Barbs has been a shell of himself since Vincente Luque took his soul. A win at the min price with spam takedowns would be a smash. | ||||
| Jinh Yu Frey | 7800 | Ashley Yoder | Risky | +125 |
| Frey is probably the slightly better wrestler in a grinding WMMA tilt. That's a tough way to score DK points. | ||||
| Collin Anglin | 7600 | Melsik Baghdasaryan | Risky | +125 |
| On DWCS Anglin was able to bring some grappling and pace. If Melsik isn't ready for this level then Anglin is going to be a nice dog play. | ||||
| Zarrukh Adashev | 7900 | Ryan Benoit | Risky | +115 |
| There's a slight chance Adashev finally puts on one of the kickboxing performances he showed in Belator. Benoit has one foot out of the UFC and likely gets his pink slip with another loss. | ||||
| Rani Yahya | 7700 | Kyung Ho Kang | Risky | +100 |
| Yahya has made a UFC career of tricking people into playing around on the mat. He's going to submit you early if it's going to happen. | ||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Rafa Garcia | $9,500 |
| Sean Strickland | $9,300 | |
Mid Tier | Melsik Baghdasaryan | $8,600 |
| Danny Chavez | $8,000 | |
| Value Tier | Niklas Stolze | $7,000 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Sean Strickland | $22 |
| Orion Cosce | $18 | |
Mid Tier | Ryan Benoit | $15 |
| Kyung Ho Kang | $16 | |
| Value Tier | Jason Witt | $9 |
Favorite Bets: Strickland -200, Witt +220
Favorite Props: Ho Lang WBD +160
Live Dogs: Hall, Witt, Frey, Anglin, Gooden, Yahya
Stats & Picks:
| Uriah Hall | vs | Sean Strickland |
| $6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 18-9-0 | Record | Record: 23-3-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| +170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Kyung Ho Kang | vs | Rani Yahya |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 17-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Cheyanne Buys | vs | Gloria de Paula |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 5-2-0 | Record | Record: 5-3-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Niklas Stolze | vs | Jared Gooden |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Ryan Benoit | vs | Zarrukh Adashev |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 10-7-0 | Record | Record: 3-3-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 3/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Bryan Barberena | vs | Jason Witt |
| $9,600 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record: 15-7-0 | Record | Record: 18-7-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| -275 | Vegas Odds | +220 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Collin Anglin | vs | Melsik Baghdasaryan |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 5-1-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Chris Gruetzemacher | vs | Rafa Garcia |
| $6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
| Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| +245 | Vegas Odds | -310 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Danny Chavez | vs | Kai Kamaka |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 8-4-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| -105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | vs | Ashley Yoder |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 10-6-0 | Record | Record: 8-7-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Phil Rowe | vs | Orion Cosce |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 7-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |