For all the late replacements on this card there are still plenty of very intriguing fights. Fights that should help us learn a lot about fighters, which are the best kind. We’ve even got a double helping of heavyweight variance in the main and co-main.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Augusto Sakai | 8200/8000 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -125/ +105 | +145/+250 |
| I like this main event. Both big fellas need to get back in the win column to stay relevant in the HW chase. Jair’s losses are more palatable than Sakai’s struggles, to me. Sakai stays busy, which is good, but gets hit with too much return fire. That’s not a good thing against Rozenstruik. It’s possible Sakai finds a next level and keeps Jair at distance for enough of the fight to win three rounds. I’m betting Jair finds his chin before the final bell, though. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mason Jones | 9500 | Alan Patrick | Safe | -290 | +110 |
| Jones is the most expensive fighter for good reason. He’s an absolute warrior and put on a FOTY candidate in his UFC debut despite the loss. Patrick is just a warm body to the UFC at this point and likely to be dominated. | |||||
| Makwan Amirkhani | 9400 | Kamuela Kirk | Somewhat-Safe | -220 | #N/A |
| It’s hard to handicap Makwan. His natural BJJ instincts are some of the best in the UFC. He also has continued to improve his shaky boxing. When he gets stuck in a firefight it gets ugly, though. It’s a good thing he’s happy to submit people most fights. | |||||
| Tom Breese | 9200 | Antonio Arroyo | Moderate | -250 | +130 |
| Breese’s natural ability is far ahead of his mental toughness. He panics and puts himself in bad spots far too often. I don’t think Arroyo has the goods to force the big mistakes but you worry about that anytime Breese steps in. Arroyo also hangs in fights even when he’s losing. | |||||
| Montana De La Rosa | 9300 | Ariane Lipski | Moderate | -275 | +265 |
| This price is all about her opponent. Lipsiki tends to careen head first into trouble. If Antonina Shevchenko was able to out-grapple her MDLR should have no trouble. Still, Lipiski is never one to put on a fight that goes as expected. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Manon Fiorot | 8500 | Maryna Moroz | Moderate | -460 | #N/A |
| Manon is clearly going to be the chalk after her odds against a late replacement soared. Generally, it’s been smart to just match with the affordable chalk and move on. It’s still women’s MMA, though. It’s entirely possible (possible, but unlikely) she doesn’t earn huge value and differentiating in GPPs could be worth the leverage. | |||||
| Dusko Todorovic | 8600 | Gregory Rodrigues | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +125 |
| The Dusko train got derailed last fight but Punehale Soriano is a murderer. No points lost in my eyes for losing to him. Dusko is still a solid all around fighter with a good shot to finish ITD and rack up some grappling points against his own late replacement. | |||||
| Marcin Tybura | 8700 | Walt Harris | Somewhat-Risky | -170 | +195 |
| It’s hard to know what to make of the resurgent Tybura. He seemed shot two years ago with a crumbling chin. Then the pandemic (and relaxed testing) hit and he’s a terminator. Maybe it was just an unlucky run of KOs, which can happen at HW. His willingness to wrestle is a major problem for Harris, who doesn’t defend it well and gasses in the process. | |||||
| Tanner Boser | 8900 | Ilir Latifi | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +195 |
| What an odd fight. Boser is typically content to chew up opponents from the outside and Latifi is too short to get inside at HW. There’s a chance the accumulation of damage earns Boser a stoppage here. Latifi is generally a tough dude but gets vulnerable when he’s tired. | |||||
| Sean Woodson | 8800 | Youssef Zalal | Risky | -175 | +255 |
| Woodson has the length and volume to beat most of the division in a boxing match. Those both leave the door open to return grappling and that happens to be Woodson’s achilles heel. Zalal will be losing the big speed advantage that’s helped him in the UFC but he’s a willing grappler at all times. | |||||
| Miguel Baeza | 8300 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | Risky | -125 | +150 |
| I’m pumping the brakes on Baeza here. The young man is a dangerous up and coming fighter. He’s got defensive holes that need closing, however. Ponz could be washed up after a brutal KO in his return from a long layoff. If not, he’s the cleaner striker and teaches a vet lesson. It is nice that Baeza has some slick BJJ in the back pocket, though. | |||||
| Jordan Leavitt | 9000 | Claudio Puelles | Risky | -210 | +115 |
| You have to mention Leavitt on the merit of his grappling based game plan. I’m not sure he has an easy way with Puelles but it’s a possible outcome that he puts on a grappling masterclass. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Youssef Zalal | 7400 | Sean Woodson | Somewhat-Risky | +155 | +655 |
| Zalal tends not to worry about swinging with opponents to be tough. He’s content to stay moving and grapple efficiently when he has the edge. That’s a perfect recipe to take out Woodson who has spent long stretches in trouble on his back in his short UFC run. | |||||
| Laureano Staropoli | 7800 | Roman Dolidze | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +415 |
| I’m giving Staropoli the edge in a close contest here. He’s busy and tough, if not very smooth. That’s probably enough to get by an overrated and untested Dolidze. | |||||
| Walt Harris | 7500 | Marcin Tybura | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +246 |
| Harris is up against it with a heavyweight that likes to grapple. There’s no denying how dangerous he is for about 3.5 minutes, though. His rare athleticism unlocks a host of avenues to flashy KOs. We’ve also seen Tybura wobbled plenty in his UFC days. | |||||
| Kamuela Kirk | 6800 | Makwan Amirkhani | Risky | +180 | #N/A |
| If Kirk can turn on the jets before Makwan has the chance to get a hold of his neck he stands a chance. That’s a tricky thing to pull off. Plenty have failed in the UFC. | |||||
| Francisco Trinaldo | 7100 | Muslim Salikhov | Risky | +210 | #N/A |
| Two counter punchers enter an octagon and stare at each other. Both are upset with the decision. I’ll give Trinaldo the edge since he has some good BJJ in the back of the toolbox and Salikov is a very raw grappler. | |||||
| Antonio Arroyo | 7000 | Tom Breese | Risky | +210 | +333 |
| A bet on Arroyo is a bet that Breese fudges up and puts himself in a bad spot somewhere along the way. Sometimes we have to travel that road when picking a dog. | |||||
| Alan Patrick | 6700 | Mason Jones | Risky | +245 | +635 |
| The only major flaw we saw from Jones in his debut was a few takedowns landed on him. Patrick will look to do that. It will be much harder when you don’t have the dynamic kickboxing Mike Davis does, however. | |||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Mason Jones | $9,500 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | $9,400 | |
Mid Tier | Manon Fiorot | $8,500 |
| Dusko Todorovic | $8,600 | |
| Value Tier | Youssef Zalal | $7,400 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Mason Jones | $23 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | $21 | |
Mid Tier | Manon Fiorot | $18 |
| Dusko Todorovic | $17 | |
| Value Tier | Youssef Zalal | $11 |
Favorite Bets: Rozenstruik -120, Todorovic -130, Staropoli +125
Favorite Props: Zalal via SUB +700
Live Dogs: Staropoli, Zalal, Ponzinibbio, Harris, Trinaldo, Arroyo, Kirk
Stats & Picks:
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | vs | Augusto Sakai |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 15-2-1 |
| 10 KO/TKO (91%) | Knockouts | |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Walt Harris | vs | Marcin Tybura |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 13-9-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 21-6-0 |
| 13 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
| +150 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Roman Dolidze | vs | Laureano Staropoli |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | vs | Miguel Baeza |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 28-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
| 15 KO/TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (70%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
| +105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Dusko Todorovic | vs | Gregory Rodrigues |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-3-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 1/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Tom Breese | vs | Antonio Arroyo |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (44%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Montana De La Rosa | vs | Ariane Lipski |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 11-6-1 | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
| Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (46%) | |
| Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | |
| -275 | Vegas Odds | +235 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Tanner Boser | vs | Ilir Latifi |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 19-7-1 | Record | Record: 15-8-0 (1 NC) |
| 10 KO/TKO (53%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
| -190 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Francisco Trinaldo | vs | Muslim Salikhov |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 26-7-0 | Record | Record: 17-2-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (35%) | Knockouts | |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (19%) | Subs | |
| +210 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | vs | Kamuela Kirk |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record: 16-5-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
| Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) | |
| Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (55%) | |
| -220 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Alan Patrick | vs | Mason Jones |
| #N/A | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
| Record: 15-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (27%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) |
| +245 | Vegas Odds | -290 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 8/10 |
| Manon Fiorot | vs | Tabatha Ricci |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (83%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (40%) |
| -460 | Vegas Odds | +365 |
| 9/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Sean Woodson | vs | Youssef Zalal |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| -175 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |