UFC 323 is set to close out the 2025 pay-per-view calendar with a bang as Bantamweight Champion Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili looks to defend his title in a rematch against former champ Petr Yan.

Their first meeting in March 2023 was a lopsided affair, with Dvalishvili drowning Yan in a relentless torrent of takedown attempts. Now, the question remains: Can “No Mercy” make the necessary adjustments to reclaim the throne, or will The Machine continue to malfunction the opposition?

Below are the latest odds, analysis, and our top betting picks for the main event and key undercard matchups.

 

 

 

UFC 323 Betting Preview: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 3 Predictions & Best Bets

UFC 323: Main Event Odds

  • Merab Dvalishvili: -455
  • Petr Yan: +350
  • Over/Under: 4.5 Rounds (Over -410 | Under +280)

Main Event Analysis

Merab Dvalishvili (Champion)

Since capturing the belt, Dvalishvili has looked virtually unbeatable. His cardio is widely considered the best in the sport, allowing him to chain-wrestle for 25 minutes without fading. In their first fight, he attempted a UFC-record 49 takedowns. While he didn't secure all of them, the constant threat froze Yan’s offense completely. Dvalishvili doesn't need to finish fights to win; he simply needs to outwork his opponent, a strategy he has perfected.

Petr Yan (Challenger)

Petr Yan is historically a slow starter who relies on downloading data in the early rounds to take over late. However, against a pace-setter like Dvalishvili, giving away early rounds is a death sentence. Yan has shown elite takedown defense in the past (roughly 85% career average), but the sheer volume of Dvalishvili’s entries eventually breaks that dam. To win, Yan needs to catch Merab coming in with a knee or a counter-hook, turning the lights out before the wrestling attrition sets in.

 

 

 

UFC 323: The Best Bets

1. Main Event Best Bet: Merab Dvalishvili by Decision (-250)

This is the most probable outcome. Merab is not a prolific finisher; he grinds opponents down. Conversely, Petr Yan is incredibly durable; he has never been truly finished in the UFC (his DQ loss to Sterling notwithstanding).

In their first fight, Dvalishvili won every single round (50-45). Yan is tough enough to survive the wrestling onslaught again, but he hasn't shown the one-punch power necessary to stop Merab’s forward pressure consistently. Betting the straight moneyline at -455 is expensive, so taking the "By Decision" prop offers significantly better value for the exact same expected game script.

2. Main Event Value Bet: Fight to Go the Distance - Yes (-360) or Over 4.5 Rounds

If you want to avoid picking a winner but want a safe parlay piece, this is it. The books have priced the "Over 4.5 Rounds" heavily for a reason. Both men are cardio machines accustomed to 25-minute wars. Combining Merab by Decision with Over 4.5 Rounds in a Same Game Parlay is a solid way to boost your odds, but as a standalone play, backing this fight to reach the final bell is one of the safest bets on the entire card.

 

 

 

UFC 323: Undercard & Co-Main Best Bets

Beyond the title fight, we have identified two additional high-value spots on the UFC 323 card.

3. Undercard Best Bet: Tatsuro Taira ML (-130) vs. Brandon Moreno

This flyweight title eliminator features a clash of generations.

  • The Pick: Tatsuro Taira is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the division, boasting a 17-1 record. While Brandon Moreno is a former champion, he has struggled with consistency recently, going just 2-2 in his last four bouts.
  • The Logic: Moreno has historically struggled against relentless grapplers who can control his back. Taira’s grappling advantage is distinct here, and at a near-pick'em price of -130, backing the younger fighter with the upward momentum is the smart play.

4. Underdog Value Bet: Bogdan Guskov ML (+110) vs. Jan Blachowicz

  • The Pick: Bogdan Guskov to win outright.
  • The Logic: We are fading the legend here. Jan Blachowicz is now 42 years old and has looked visibly slower in his recent outings (1-3-1 in his last five). He faces a dangerous, explosive striker in Guskov who has serious knockout power. Father Time is undefeated in MMA, and backing a heavy-hitting prospect at plus-money against an aging veteran on a decline is a classic winning betting strategy.

Odds courtesy of major sportsbooks and subject to change.
 

 

 

How To Bet On UFC Picks At DraftKings

Placing UFC bets at DraftKings is quick and easy:

  1. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app or open it on desktop.
  2. Create an account (or log in).
  3. Find “UFC/MMA” under the sportsbook menu.
  4. Look for UFC 323  and click on each fight.
  5. Select your bet type: Moneyline, method of victory, round props, or same-game parlays.
  6. Enter your wager amount and confirm the bet slip.

 

 

 

How to Watch UFC 323 on ESPN, Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 Saturday Night

  • Broadcast: ESPN / ESPN+ PPV
  • Date: Saturday, December 6th
  • Main Card Start Time: 10 PM ET
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena

Early prelims and prelims are usually streamed through ESPN+ before the PPV main card begins.

 

 

 

UFC 323 Odds & Score $300 Promo At DraftKings

New customers can access a Bet & Get-style promo where wagering a small qualifying bet unlocks up to $300 in bonus bets (promo availability varies by state).

How to get the offer:

  1. Sign up at DraftKings Sportsbook
  2. Make your first deposit.
  3. Place any eligible UFC bet.
  4. Receive your bonus bets, which can then be used on Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 props, round bets, or parlays.