Two Italians are set to compete for titles in front of a home crowd in Rome.

Jannik Sinner is making his return to the tour after a months-long absence following his Australian Open triumph. He’s played his way back into top form with five straight wins this week. Jasmine Paolini is back in another WTA 1000 final and will also feature in Sunday’s doubles championship with Sara Errani (2014 Italian Open Runner-Up).

Carlos Alcaraz and Coco Gauff stand in their way. Alcaraz is looking to win his first title in Rome, while Gauff will try to secure her third WTA 1000 title. 

 

 

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Finals Free Pick & Best Bet: Alcaraz ML (+120) & Gauff vs Paolini Over 21.5 Games (-105)

Carlos Alcaraz enters as a slight underdog on the moneyline despite winning the last three meetings against Jannik Sinner. Their most recent matchup came in the 2024 Beijing final, where Alcaraz defeated Sinner 7–6, 4–6, 7–6. He also beat him in last year’s Roland Garros semifinal and Indian Wells semifinal—proving that when the match extends physically, he has the edge.

Alcaraz has worked through five opponents this week: Lajovic, Djere, Khachanov (dropping a set), Draper, and Musetti. Against Musetti, he kept things tight, striking 19 winners and managing the match on his terms. His court coverage and ability to finish at the net have improved each round.

Sinner hasn’t played since January but hasn’t looked out of rhythm. He dismantled Ruud 6–0, 6–1 in the quarters and handled Tommy Paul in three sets in the semifinal. He’s served well, won a high percentage of first-serve points, and looked comfortable stepping inside the baseline when needed. But this will be his first final since his doping suspension and Alcaraz has had a steadier buildup on clay this spring.

With Alcaraz now priced at plus money, this is a rare opportunity to back him as a statistical underdog with real matchup value.

In the women’s final, Coco Gauff leads the head-to-head against Jasmine Paolini 2–1, but Paolini won their most recent meeting in Stuttgart this year, 6–4, 6–3 on clay. Paolini has been excellent in Rome, beating Ostapenko, Shnaider, and Stearns with clean, compact point construction. She’s serving with margin and using her forehand to set up short balls without rushing points.

Gauff’s semifinal against Zheng Qinwen was more demanding. She dropped the second set and struggled with her second serve under pressure, but held strong in the third. Her defense remains world-class, but her service games have been more vulnerable on slower surfaces. She’s had to play longer rallies throughout the week, and against Paolini’s consistency and shot tolerance, that may continue.

Threaded together: Gauff’s three-set battle, her exposed service games, and Paolini’s current form all point to a tightly contested match. Even if Gauff wins in straight sets, a 7–5, 6–4 scoreline puts this over the 21.5 games mark.

 

 

 

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Finals Best Bets:

Carlos Alcaraz is rarely available at plus odds—and with his head-to-head edge, clay comfort, and deeper match play this spring, he’s worth the bet as the underdog. Sinner’s level is high, but the Rome title may still be one match too soon after a multi-month layoff.

In the women’s final, Jasmine Paolini has proven she can make Gauff uncomfortable on clay. Whether Gauff gets through or not, the over is the sharper angle in a matchup that’s closer than the line implies.

 

 

 

How To Watch The Internazionali BNL d’Italia

Coverage is live on Tennis Channel and streaming via Tennis Channel Plus.

 

2025 Internazionali BNL d’Italia Finals Odds & Betting Lines Via DraftKings

Men’s Final – Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner

  • Sinner ML: -150
  • Alcaraz ML: +120
  • Spread: Alcaraz +2.5 games (-110)
  • Total Games: 22.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)

Women’s Final – Coco Gauff vs Jasmine Paolini

  • Gauff ML: -200
  • Paolini ML: +160
  • Spread: Gauff -3.5 games (-105)
  • Total Games: 21.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)

 

 

 

How To Bet On Carlos Alcaraz at DraftKings Sportsbook & Get $150 In Bonuses

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