With the international break out of the way, the EPL DFS Playbook is back for Saturday’s five-game slate. The slate features two heavy favorites as second-place Tottenham hosts winless Sheffield United while the only team with four wins, Manchester City, will look to hand West Ham its first defeat of the season. The other matchups all appear to be pretty close. Manchester United and Aston Villa have both been up and down, and they may be the wild cards on the slate, facing Brighton and Crystal Palace, respectively. Newcastle will look to bounce back from three straight losses (though all against good teams) while Brentford will try to keep its unbeaten streak going. Fulham looked surprisingly competent in drawing against Arsenal Week 3 but followed that up with a 5-1 loss to Manchester City. They should be able to take care of business against Luton Town, but I don’t think Luton is as bad as their -7 goal differential would indicate.


EPL DFS Soccer Picks September 16

Guglielmo VicarioTOTSHU590012.421316.00
You can pivot to Ederson if you want, especially on DraftKings, but Tottenham is at home, and I worry that City's injuries will finally catch up to them. City may be more likely to win but I think Vicario is the best bet for a win and a clean sheet.
Emiliano MartinezAVLCRY53005.55117.17
Only two teams have allowed more saves than Crystal Palace, and only seven have scored fewer goals. Aston Villa has been feast or famine through four games but I think I mostly trust them, especially at home.
Thomas KaminskiLUTFUL40003.6384.17
Luton hasn't exactly looked outstanding defensively, but this is pretty clearly their best matchup so far. Only two teams have scored fewer goals per game than Fulham, and I love betting against Raul Jimenez and Adama Traore to score. I'm not expecting a win but we're getting a chance for a handful of saves and even a clean sheet at a bargain price.
Manor SolomonTOTSHU770011.361616.70
I don't want to overreact to one start against a team that looks like it would allow five goals in MLS, but Solomon's price is pretty reasonable for someone who created five chances and had two assists in his only start of the season. This entire team is risky on DraftKings, but outside of James Maddison, I think Solomon is my favorite Spur on both sites.
Phil FodenMCIWHU820013.541819.20
I am extremely tempted to pivot to Jeremy Doku, but Foden is far more proven, and he isn't much more expensive. Foden has an assist in three straight games despite playing just four minutes in one of them. He go the lion's share of the corners last week and even if he splits them more evenly with Julian Alvarez, he is still arguably City's safest attacker in this matchup.
Erling HaalandMCIWHU1000025.752543.85
I don't love any of the forwards in the $19-$22 range on FanDuel, which makes me want to bypass that altogether and just splurge on Haaland. There are enough cheap plays to make this option viable, but you might need two goals from Haaland to justify this price.
Jordan AyewCRYAVL580015.061724.73
Ayew is arguably the safest forward on DraftKings, averaging 4.0 crosses, 1.75 chances created and 3.0 shots per game. I like him as much as any of the mid-priced midfielders on the slate but his forward eligibility pushes him over the top in my book.
Andreas PereiraFULLUT51006.26159.68
This is as cheap as Pereira has been all season and this matchup is better than any of the three games he started. He is the primary corner-taker for this team and he has one chance created in each start. He is probably worth a shot on FanDuel, but he looks quite safe on DraftKings.
James MaddisonTOTSHU980024.022338.08
Son Heung-Min is worth a shot in tournaments, especially if he starts up top again, but Maddison is so much safer and only costs a little bit more. Maddison has taken every corner for Spurs and he has more crosses than all of his teammates combined. He also leads the team in shots, shots on target, chances created, xA and xG.
Anthony GordonNEWBRE  1718.55
Gordon struggled against Manchester City but he has a goal and five chances created in his other three games. I don't love this matchup but Gordon is Newcastle's safest player outside of Kieran Trippier.
Ross BarkleyLUTFUL53008.921413.95
Ryan Giles is arguably safer on DraftKings, but Barkley had five crosses, four chances created and two shots against West Ham. I think he provides Luton's best combination of floor, ceiling and value on both sites.
Alejandro GarnachoMUNBHA52005.13136.60
Garnacho leads United with 4.67 shots per 90 minutes, though just one of his shots has been on target. I might pivot to Rasmus Hojlund on DraftKings but Garnacho offers immense upside at a cheap price, and since I don't really trust any of the United attackers, I'm happy to take one of the cheap ones.
Lucas DigneAVLCRY530012.71322.23
You can pay up for Pedro Porro if you want to chase some upside, but Digne is pretty reasonably priced for someone with at least 12.1 DK fantasy points in all four games. The only other players on the slate who are even averaging 12+ fantasy points are Pedro Estupinan and Jayden Bogle, and I prefer Digne's matchup to each of theirs.
Antonee RobinsonFULLUT39004.251110.15
I have no idea why Robinson is $900 cheaper than Kenny Tete on DK. This is Fulham's best matchup since the season opener and Robinson has nine crosses through four games. You're not going to find anyone with his kind of floor at this price.
Destiny UdogieTOTSHU47009.921418.13
I may just avoid the mid-priced defenders on DraftKings altogether, but Udogie looks like our best bet. He has assists in his last two games with another good matchup. I wish he would send in a few crosses but he has averaged just as many fppg as Pedro Porro and he costs $1,700 less.
Chris RichardsCRYAVL2700099.08
Whoever starts for Marc Guehi should be a nice value play on FanDuel. Richards averaged 6.20 clearances per 90 minutes last season, so I'll be rooting for him to get the start over Rob Holding.
Ben MeeBRENEW  1011.40
Mee has been a borderline-elite fantasy play on FanDuel for years. He had just three clearances in his only start of the season against Bournemouth, but I mostly blame that on the matchup. Mee is going to start putting up elite clearance numbers sooner than later, and I intend to take advantage before his price increases.

EPL DFS Soccer Core Plays 

Draftkings Core Plays
Top TierJames Maddison$9,800
Erling Haaland$10,000
Mid TierAndreas Pereira$5,100
Jordan Ayew$5,800
Value TierAntonee Robinson$3,900
Thomas Kaminski$4,000
Fanduel Core Plays
Top TierJames Maddison$23
Erling Haaland$25
Mid TierPhil Foden$18
Moussa Diaby$18
Value TierChris Richards$9
Alejandro Garnacho$13

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