Another day of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is upon us! This could very well be the final time this season we see a pair of games on the same day if the Vegas closes out their series so let's take it all in! The excitement among fans is at an all-time high, and here at Fantasy Alarm, we’re dedicated to maintaining that momentum with our Best Bets.

Today, we will focus on one player prop and a money line. As we move forward in the playoffs, games will get tougher, and goals will be harder to come by. However, we can still identify an advantage; we just need to approach our analysis carefully. Please review the wagers and, if you like the rationale, follow them. You can find all wagers here on the NHL Bet Tracker.

In addition make sure to check out all of our products such as the NHL Odds Finder and NHL Betting Trends

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 🏒NHL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/12

🔥 Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres Prediction

Of all the series in these conference semi-finals this one has been by far the most reckless in terms of scoring and high danger chances. As we head into Game Five there have been 25 goals scored in total and I don't see things slowing down. 

Yet the books have the line at 5.5 for today and that's a bit puzzling to me seeing as the Canadiens over the course of this series have generated a total of 14.37 expected goals over the four games. The Sabres aren't far behind either with 13.34 total expected goals so the total going over is looking more and more likely. Then there's the issue of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen who had a fine season but can't be trusted. He has a -1.2 goals saved above expected mark over his 3 starts and grades out worse than Lukas Dostal for the Ducks in goals saved per 60 minutes. The numbers speak of a 6 goal game, I am going to buy into the narrative and take the over tonight.

In addition to that prop the Habs have recorded 30.8 shots per game during the course of this series so that's plenty of runway to sneak in a prop for this game. Alex Newhook is the name that jumps out at me today given his production in this series with 17 shots over the four games and the fact he's been one of Montreal's best skaters this series. He has gone over his prop line of 2.5 shots in every game this series so let's hope he stays out and clears the over to win us some plus money. 

Pick: Canadiens & Sabres Over 5.5 Goals (-130 on FanDuel)

Pick: Alex Newhook (MTL) Over 2.5 Shots (+140 on DraftKings)

BEST NHL PROPS 5/14

Pick: Lukas Dostal (ANA) Under 25.5 Saves (-125 on DraftKings)

 

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