Frozen Frenzy delivered a split. Our two Lower plays came through, with Zach Werenski and Alex Ovechkin both staying under their shot lines, while Tage Thompson and Kyle Connor fell short of theirs. That puts our Underdog NHL Free Picks at 10-6 on individual picks this season.
Wednesday's card comes from one game. Montreal visits Washington at Capital One Arena at 7:30 p.m. ET, and both teams are playing the second night of a back-to-back after Frozen Frenzy. We are going right back to the Ovechkin Lower that cashed last night and pairing it with the hottest shooter on the other side. Let's get into it.
Underdog NHL Free Picks, Wednesday, 10/14: NHL DFS Projections
Back-to-backs are where ice time gets interesting. Teams playing on consecutive nights tend to spread minutes out and limit the workload of older or recovering players, while leaning even harder on their young stars. Washington is also playing its third game in four nights, and both clubs are expected to turn to their backup goaltenders, with Jakub Dobes projected for Montreal and Charlie Lindgren for Washington.
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Alex Ovechkin NHL Underdog Pick: Lower 2.5 SOG
We are riding the same play that cashed on Frozen Frenzy. Alex Ovechkin finished with just two shots on goal in Carolina on Tuesday, and the factors behind that pick are even stronger tonight. The 41-year-old missed the entire preseason with a lower-body injury, and Washington has been managing his minutes since the season began.
Ovechkin now has 10 shots on goal through six games, an average of about 1.7 per night, while playing a little over 14 minutes per game. He played a career-low 12:46 in the opener and topped 16 minutes only once in that stretch. His three-shot game against Seattle on Sunday came in his heaviest workload of the season, and that is the type of game he needs to clear this number.
Tonight is the second night of a back-to-back and Washington's third game in four nights, which is exactly when a coaching staff protects a veteran's ice time. The Capitals have a much deeper forward group this year with Alex Tuch and Jordan Kyrou in the mix, so there is less pressure to lean on their captain. Ovechkin has always played well against Montreal, but volume is the question here, not finish, and we are taking Ovechkin Lower 2.5 shots on goal.
Cole Caufield NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 SOG
Cole Caufield is heating up. The Canadiens sniper has 24 shots on goal through six games, an average of four per night, and he has put at least five shots on net in each of his last three games. He fired six against Nashville, six more against Detroit and then scored on five shots in Tuesday's game against Buffalo.
Caufield is coming off a historic season. He scored 51 goals in 2025-26, becoming the first Canadiens player to reach 50 since Stephane Richer in 1989-90, and he finished with 12 multi-goal games, second only to Nathan MacKinnon. He also led the NHL in snap shots on goal last season, according to NHL EDGE, and ranked in the 95th percentile among forwards in mid-range shots on goal.
His role makes him a reliable volume play. Caufield skates on Montreal's top line with Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky and plays on the top power-play unit, and he has logged between 18 and 23 minutes in every game since the opener. A young shooter like Caufield is also far less affected by a back-to-back than the veterans on the other bench.
The game environment helps as well. The total sits at 6.5, and Washington is expected to start its backup goaltender on the back end of a back-to-back. Caufield has been the most consistent shot generator on either roster over the last week, and we like Caufield Higher 3.5 shots on goal.
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