November is here, and our Underdog NHL Free Picks start the month with two players heading in opposite directions. One is the hottest goal scorer in the league, and the other is a future Hall of Famer whose role keeps shrinking in his final season.
Both picks come from 7 p.m. ET puck drops. Minnesota visits Philadelphia at Xfinity Mobile Arena, and Dallas heads to Capital One Arena to face Washington. We are backing Kirill Kaprizov to keep his scoring tear going and riding the Alex Ovechkin Lower one more time. Let's get into it.
Underdog NHL Free Picks, Tuesday, 11/3: NHL DFS Projections
A month into the season, roles have settled, and the trends are much more reliable than they were in October. Some stars have taken their games to another level, while others have seen their ice time trimmed as their teams get deeper. Both of tonight's picks are built on those usage trends, which tend to hold up much better than short-term streaks.
Fantasy Alarm's NHL DFS Projections track those usage changes every night. Our projections cover every player on every slate, so you can see who is set up for points, shots, blocks, and saves before you build a lineup or submit a pick'em entry. Whether you are playing Underdog, DraftKings, or FanDuel, our NHL DFS Projections help you find the edges worth attacking.
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Kirill Kaprizov NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 1.5 Points
Kirill Kaprizov is putting together one of the best starts in the league. The Wild star leads Minnesota with 15 goals and 25 points through 16 games, and he was just named the NHL's Second Star of the Month for October after posting 14 goals and 24 points. He has recorded a point in 14 of his 16 games, and eight of those have been multi-point performances.
He is only getting hotter. Kaprizov has nine goals and 16 points over his last 10 games, and he enters tonight on a five-game point streak with four goals and eight points in that stretch. He also reached 500 career points in Sunday's 5-1 win in Washington, getting there in just 412 career games.
His role is as strong as it gets. Kaprizov skates on the top line with Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy and plays on a first power-play unit with Quinn Hughes that is converting at 25.5 percent. Hughes leads the team with 16 assists, so the puck is finding Kaprizov in dangerous spots night after night. He led the Wild with 45 goals and 89 points last season, so this production is backed by a long track record.
The matchup sets up well too. Minnesota is 10-3-3 and among the top teams in the West, while Philadelphia is 4-8-4 and has allowed more than three goals per game this season. The Wild are road favorites in the -165 to -175 range, and Kaprizov is the clear focal point of their attack. We are taking Kaprizov Higher 1.5 points.
Alex Ovechkin NHL Underdog Pick: Lower 2.5 SOG
We are going back to the Ovechkin Lower, and the numbers continue to back it up. The 41-year-old has just one goal and 21 shots on goal through 13 games, an average of about 1.6 per night. He has stayed under 2.5 shots in four of his last five games, with two against Los Angeles, one against Buffalo, two against Philadelphia and two against Minnesota on Sunday.
His ice time explains why. Ovechkin is averaging about 13:30 per night this season, and he has played between 10:56 and 13:08 in each of his last four games. He is projected to stay on the third line tonight with Justin Sourdif and Anthony Beauvillier, behind a top six that includes Tom Wilson, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alex Tuch, Dylan Strome and Jordan Kyrou. Washington's depth has made it easy to manage his workload in his final season.
He still plays on the top power-play unit, so a penalty-heavy game is the main risk here. Even with that role, his only game above 2.5 shots in that five-game stretch was a three-shot night in Nashville last week, which came in just under 11 minutes of ice time. Ovechkin has 930 career goals, but at this stage of his career, the Capitals are leaning on their younger forwards to drive the offense.
Dallas visits at 8-5-1, and the game is priced close to a coin flip with a total of just 5.5. A lower-scoring, tighter game typically means fewer power-play chances and even less room for a third-line winger to rack up shots. We are taking Ovechkin Lower 2.5 shots on goal.
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