Wednesday was another split. Alex Ovechkin stayed under 2.5 shots for the second straight night, while Cole Caufield came up short of his 3.5 line in Washington. That puts our Underdog NHL Free Picks at 11-7 on individual picks this season.
Thursday's picks come from two evening matchups. Philadelphia visits Detroit at Little Caesars Arena at 7:30 p.m. ET, and Winnipeg heads to the United Center to face Chicago at 8 p.m. ET. We are backing a red-hot sniper against the worst team in hockey and going back to a familiar name who is due for a bounce-back. Let's get into it.
Underdog NHL Free Picks, Thursday, 10/15: NHL DFS Projections
Two weeks into the season, the standings are starting to separate the contenders from the teams that are struggling. Philadelphia is still searching for its first win, and Chicago is still a young, rebuilding team. Matchups like these are where shot volume props can shine, because the better team usually spends more time in the offensive zone.
Fantasy Alarm's NHL DFS Projections factor in those matchups every night. Our projections cover every player on every slate, so you can see who is set up for shots, points, blocks, and saves before you build a lineup or submit a pick'em entry. Whether you are playing Underdog, DraftKings, or FanDuel, our NHL DFS Projections help you spot the best spots on the board.
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Kyle Connor NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 SOG
Kyle Connor has finished with three shots in each of his last two games, and that is exactly why we like him tonight. Before that brief dip, he had cleared 3.5 in each of his first four games with nine shots against Boston, five in Detroit, six in Pittsburgh and four against Colorado. Even with the last two games included, he has 30 shots on goal through six games, an average of five per night.
The production has not slowed down either. Connor has six goals this season, and his most recent goal moved him past Ilya Kovalchuk into sole possession of third place on the Jets/Atlanta Thrashers all-time list with 329. He continues to skate on the top line with Mark Scheifele and Cole Perfetti and quarterbacks the top power-play unit.
His track record makes a bounce-back the most likely outcome. Connor put 274 shots on goal last season while playing all 82 games, and he once reached 317 shots in a single season. Two quiet nights in a row are the exception for him, not the trend, and lines that dip after short slumps are where we want to buy.
The matchup sets up well for volume. Winnipeg is the road favorite, and the total sits at 6.5, so oddsmakers expect plenty of offense. Chicago is still a young, rebuilding group, and the Jets should spend a good chunk of this game on the attack. We are taking Connor Higher 3.5 shots on goal.
Alex DeBrincat NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 SOG
Alex DeBrincat is the hottest player on the Red Wings, and he just got paid. Detroit agreed to a seven-year, $91 million extension with him on Tuesday, and he celebrated with two goals and an assist against New Jersey that same night. He has 13 shots on goal over his last two games, and he leads Detroit with four goals, eight points, and a plus-7 rating.
His role is a big part of the appeal. DeBrincat skates on the second line with Emmitt Finnie and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, a group head coach Todd McLellan called the team's best line by a wide margin on Tuesday, and he also works on the top power-play unit with Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Viktor Arvidsson and Moritz Seider. A shooter with that kind of usage gets plenty of opportunities every night.
The track record backs it up. DeBrincat led the Red Wings with 41 goals and 85 points last season while playing all 82 games, and he scored four goals in three games against Philadelphia last season. He has been one of the most consistent goal scorers in the league since arriving in Detroit.
The matchup could not be much better. Philadelphia is 0-5-3 and mired in a franchise-record losing streak to open a season, and Detroit is a home favorite looking to snap a three-game skid of its own. With DeBrincat firing at this rate against the worst team in hockey, we like DeBrincat Higher 3.5 shots on goal.
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