We are coming off a clean sweep. Both of Monday's Underdog NHL Free Picks cashed, with Kyle Connor clearing his shots on goal line in Pittsburgh and Darnell Nurse getting the job done with his blocks in Dallas. Now we turn the page to Tuesday and look to keep the momentum rolling.

Tonight we are targeting two 7 p.m. ET puck drops. Minnesota visits Buffalo at KeyBank Center, and Utah heads to Prudential Center to take on New Jersey. Both picks are shot volume plays on players who are already firing at a high rate in the opening week, and both come with power-play roles that keep the puck on their sticks. Let's get into it.

Underdog NHL Free Picks, Tuesday, 10/6: NHL DFS Projections

One week into the season, usage trends are starting to take shape. Minnesota is playing without Brock Faber after his skull fracture, which has pushed even more ice time onto Quinn Hughes. Utah has converted six of its eight power-play chances through three games, and the same five players have been on the ice for most of that damage. Those are the kinds of role changes that move player props before the market fully adjusts.

That is why Fantasy Alarm's NHL DFS Projections are built to update with the news. Our projections cover every player on every slate, so you can see who is in line for shots, points, blocks, and saves before you build a lineup or lock in a pick'em entry. Whether you are playing Underdog, DraftKings, or FanDuel, our NHL DFS Projections help you find the spots worth attacking.

Want full access all season? Upgrade to an All Pro membership to unlock our complete NHL DFS Projections along with every premium tool Fantasy Alarm offers across all sports. It is the best way to pair your own research with our Underdog NHL Free Picks every night of the 84-game schedule.

 

 

 

Quinn Hughes NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 2.5 SOG

Quinn Hughes has come out of the gate shooting more than usual, and the reason is clear. The Wild defenseman has nine shots on goal through two games, starting with five in the season opener at Nashville and adding four more in Saturday's home win over Boston. He has cleared tonight's number in both contests, and he has three points to go with it, including a power-play goal against the Bruins.

The workload explains a lot of it. Hughes logged 27:30 in the opener and is averaging nearly 25 minutes per night through two games. With Brock Faber sidelined by a skull fracture, Minnesota is leaning on its top defenseman even harder than expected, and more minutes means more chances to get the puck to the net. Hughes also quarterbacks the top power-play unit, and his point shot set up Kirill Kaprizov's tip-in goal in Nashville.

Last season, Hughes averaged 2.3 shots per game while piling up 76 points in 74 games, so his baseline sits right around this line. What has changed is the role. He is playing more, he is shooting more, and the Wild are running their offense through him as Kaprizov gets off to a three-goal start. When a defenseman with his skill set is on the ice for half the game, the shot attempts tend to follow.

The game environment helps too. The Wild and Sabres are close to a coin flip on the moneyline, and the total sits at 6.5, which points to an open, back-and-forth game. Buffalo is coming off its first Atlantic Division title but allowed six goals to Columbus last week, and that is not a team that has locked things down defensively yet. We are taking Hughes Higher 2.5 shots on goal.

Dylan Guenther NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 2.5 SOG

Dylan Guenther is picking up right where he left off. The Mammoth winger has 12 shots on goal through three games, an average of four per night, along with three goals and two assists. Every one of those points has come on the power play, which tells you exactly how Utah is using him.

Guenther's 2025-26 season was a breakout. He scored 40 goals and added 33 assists for 73 points in 79 games, leading the Mammoth in goals for the first time in his career. He also put 242 shots on net, which works out to just over three per game while averaging a little over 17 minutes of ice time. He has set a public goal of reaching 50 this season, and players chasing that mark do not get there by passing up shots.

The power play is the engine. Utah opened the year by converting six of its first eight chances, the best rate in the league, and Guenther works on the top unit alongside Nick Schmaltz, Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller and Mikhail Sergachev. He also skates on the second line with Cooley and Anders Lee at even strength, so he gets quality minutes in every situation.

New Jersey enters at 1-1-0, and the total in this game sits at six or 6.5 depending on the book, so oddsmakers expect plenty of offense. The Mammoth are averaging four goals per game through their first three contests, and they have yet to allow a power-play goal. Any penalty trouble for the Devils puts the puck right back on Guenther's stick. We like Guenther Higher 2.5 shots on goal.

 

 

 

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