Monday brings a compact four-game NHL slate to kick off the second week of the 2026-27 season. Philadelphia visits Tampa Bay at 7 p.m. ET, Ottawa heads to Boston, and Winnipeg visits Pittsburgh at 7:30 p.m. ET, and San Jose closes the night in Dallas at 8 p.m. ET. Smaller slates put a premium on finding the right spots, and two of these matchups line up nicely for player props.

Our Underdog NHL Free Picks for Monday target Kyle Connor's shot volume in Pittsburgh and Darnell Nurse's shot-blocking in Dallas. Both players have long track records in these exact categories and walk into game environments that should push their numbers higher. Let's break it down.

Underdog NHL Free Picks, Monday, 10/5: NHL DFS Projections

A week into the season, the early returns are already reshaping how we look at certain teams. Pittsburgh has scored 13 goals through two games, Dallas has scored just once in two outings, and San Jose has opened 2-0-0 for the first time in franchise history. Small samples can mislead, but they also tell us which teams are playing fast and which are pressing, and that context matters when you are betting shots and blocks.

That is exactly where Fantasy Alarm's NHL DFS Projections earn their keep. Our projections cover every player on every slate, so you can see who is set up for shots, points, blocks, and saves before you build a lineup or submit a pick'em entry. Whether you play Underdog, DraftKings, or FanDuel, our NHL DFS Projections help you spot the edges before the lines catch up.

Want access every night? Upgrade to an All Pro membership to unlock our full NHL DFS Projections along with the rest of Fantasy Alarm's premium tools across every sport. It is the best way to pair your own research with our Underdog NHL Free Picks throughout the 84-game season.

 

 

 

Kyle Connor NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 2.5 SOG

Kyle Connor is one of the most reliable shot generators in hockey, and he is already rolling. The Jets winger fired nine shots on goal in Winnipeg's season opener against Boston on Friday, then followed it up with five shots and two power-play goals in Sunday's 3-2 win over Detroit. That is 14 shots through two games, an average of seven per night, and he has cleared tonight's number in both contests with plenty of room to spare.

Those two goals Sunday also moved Connor into fifth place in Jets history with 75 power-play goals. Winnipeg is clearly running its offense through him early, especially on the man advantage, and that kind of usage is what drives shot volume. Based on how he has started, this line looks light.

Connor played all 82 games in 2025-26 for the second straight year and finished with 39 goals, 53 assists, and 274 shots on goal. That works out to roughly 3.3 shots per game, comfortably above tonight's number of 2.5. He also logged 21:30 of ice time per night and led Winnipeg in goals, so the role is as secure as it gets. Remember, too, that this is a player who once put 317 shots on net in a single season, so the ceiling is even higher than last year's pace.

Consistency is the real selling point here. Connor has strung together five straight 30-goal seasons and sits at more than 320 career goals, closing in on Ilya Kovalchuk for second place in franchise history. Goal scorers at that level get there by shooting, and Connor's volume holds up whether the Jets are winning or chasing.

The matchup adds to the appeal. Pittsburgh has scored 13 goals in two games with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin leading the way, which points to a high-event game where both teams trade chances. Winnipeg is on the second night of a back-to-back after playing in Detroit on Sunday, but Connor has shown no signs of slowing down, and a track meet at PPG Paints Arena is exactly the environment where he racks up attempts. We are taking Connor Higher 2.5 shots on goal.

Darnell Nurse NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 1.5 Blocked Shots

Darnell Nurse brings a new jersey but the same blue-collar profile. The Oilers traded him to San Jose on July 1, and the Sharks are leaning on him in a featured role as part of a rebuilt defense that also added Jacob Trouba. He is projected to skate on the top pair with Michael Kesselring against Dallas, and he just played the 800th game of his NHL career on Saturday.

He has already shown what this role looks like. Nurse blocked five shots in San Jose's season opener on Thursday, a 4-3 overtime win over Florida in which the Panthers erased a three-goal deficit and pushed hard late. That is more than triple tonight's line in his very first game with his new team.

Blocking shots has always been part of Nurse's game. Even in what was a down year offensively in 2025-26, he blocked 167 shots across 82 games with Edmonton, an average of just over two per night, which led the Oilers and ranked ninth among NHL defensemen. He has now logged at least 100 hits and 100 blocked shots in nine straight seasons, and his 1,467 career blocks since 2015-16 rank seventh among active defensemen. A line of 1.5 asks him to do what he does in a normal game, and the shift from Edmonton to San Jose should only increase his defensive workload.

That is the key to this pick. The Sharks ranked third worst in the league in shot attempt differential last season at minus-3.9 per game, so they spent plenty of time defending in their own zone. San Jose has been fun to watch early with Macklin Celebrini piling up five assists in two games, but a young, aggressive team tends to give up chances the other way, and a veteran shutdown defenseman is the one standing in the lanes.

Dallas also has every reason to come out firing. The Stars are 0-2-0 and have scored only once after averaging 3.33 goals per game last season, which ranked ninth in the NHL. A frustrated home team with Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Mikko Rantanen in the lineup should throw plenty of pucks toward the net, and Nurse will be in position to eat a bunch of them. We like Nurse Higher 1.5 blocked shots.

 

 

 

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Ready to get in on Monday's slate? New users can sign up with Underdog promo code ALARM to earn over $75 in bonuses. Once you are in, take Kyle Connor Higher 2.5 shots on goal, Darnell Nurse Higher 1.5 blocked shots, and a $10 Champions entry; these two picks pay out $23.20.

Underdog makes it easy to play NHL props every night, from shots and points to blocks and saves. Pair our Underdog NHL Free Picks with Fantasy Alarm's NHL DFS Projections, and you will be set for every slate this season. Sign up with promo code ALARM today and claim over $75 in bonuses before puck drop.