Saturday was a split. Alex Ovechkin stayed under his shots line once again in his third-line role, while Alex DeBrincat fell short of 3.5 shots against San Jose. Our Underdog NHL Free Picks turn the page to Monday with two of the most dangerous forwards in the league.
Monday's picks come from two evening games. Colorado visits Philadelphia at Xfinity Mobile Arena at 7 p.m. ET, and San Jose heads to Scotiabank Arena to face Toronto at 7:30 p.m. ET. We are backing the league's hottest playmaker in a dream matchup and a Maple Leafs star who has been nearly as productive as his captain. Let's get into it.
Underdog NHL Free Picks, Monday, 10/19: NHL DFS Projections
Matchups matter a lot this time of year, and Monday's board has a lopsided one. Philadelphia is 1-6-3 and still searching for consistency, while Colorado comes in at 5-2-1 with one of the most explosive top lines in hockey. When a heavy favorite meets a struggling opponent, the stars on the stronger side are usually in line for big nights.
Fantasy Alarm's NHL DFS Projections weigh those matchups every day. Our projections cover every player on every slate, so you can see who is set up for points, shots, blocks, and saves before you build a lineup or submit a pick'em entry. Whether you are playing Underdog, DraftKings, or FanDuel, our NHL DFS Projections help you find the spots worth attacking.
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Nathan MacKinnon NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 1.5 Points
Nathan MacKinnon is doing everything for Colorado right now. The Avalanche star has six goals and 10 assists for 16 points through eight games, an average of two points per night, and he has cleared 1.5 points in six of those eight games. The only exceptions were a 3-2 loss in Winnipeg and a shootout loss to Dallas. He is coming off a four-point performance in Friday's 5-2 win over Pittsburgh, where he scored a power-play goal, set up two more and fired nine shots on goal in just under 23 minutes.
His even-strength production stands out most. MacKinnon has 14 even-strength points this season, the second most in the NHL, which means he does not need the power play to clear this number. He centers the top line between Artturi Lehkonen and Martin Necas and also runs the first power-play unit with Cale Makar, so he is involved in nearly every scoring chance Colorado creates.
The matchup is about as good as it gets. MacKinnon has 21 points in 22 career games against Philadelphia, and the Flyers enter at 1-6-3 with just one win all season. Colorado is a heavy road favorite at around -220, and the total sits at 6.5, so oddsmakers expect the Avalanche to score plenty.
This is also the first game of a road back-to-back, so Colorado has every reason to lean on its stars early in the trip. A two-point night is a normal outcome for MacKinnon even in tough matchups, and this is anything but tough. We are taking MacKinnon Higher 1.5 points.
William Nylander NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 2.5 SOG
William Nylander has been one of Toronto's most dangerous players to start the season. The Maple Leafs winger has five goals and seven assists for 12 points through nine games, second on the team behind only Auston Matthews. He opened the year with two goals on five shots against Montreal and added a five-point night with two goals and three assists in a 6-3 win at Colorado on Oct. 10.
The shot volume has been strong as well. Nylander has 28 shots on goal through nine games, an average of 3.1 per night, and he has cleared 2.5 in four of his last five games with five against Vegas, four at Colorado, four at Utah and five against Buffalo. He was held to one shot in Saturday's loss to the Islanders, but his recent stretch shows the volume is trending in the right direction.
His role sets him up for more of the same. Nylander is averaging more than 20 minutes per night on the top line with Matthews and Jack Roslovic, and he said this weekend that the line created plenty of scoring chances against Buffalo even when the pucks did not go in. When a shooter is generating that many looks, the shots on goal tend to follow, and 2.5 is a low bar for a player getting top-line minutes and top-unit power-play time.
Toronto's offense has been one of the better groups in the league early, averaging 3.50 goals per game through eight contests, which ranked ninth in the NHL. The Leafs are also adjusting to life without John Tavares, which has pushed even more of the offensive load onto Matthews and Nylander.
San Jose visits on the heels of a shootout loss in Detroit on Saturday, and Toronto is a home favorite at around -142 with a total of 6.5. The Sharks are a young team that plays an up-tempo style, and that should give Nylander room to work. We like Nylander Higher 2.5 shots on goal.
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