Friday did not go our way. Thomas Novak and Kyle Connor each finished one shot shy of their lines, snapping our winning streak. Our Underdog NHL Free Picks still sit at 7-3 on individual picks this season and 3-2 on our two-pick pick'em plays, and we are looking to start a new run on Monday.
Monday's picks come from an afternoon game and an evening game. Florida visits Buffalo at KeyBank Center for a 1 p.m. ET matinee, and Ottawa heads to Prudential Center to face New Jersey at 7 p.m. ET. We are going back to a shooter who has cleared his line every night this season and adding a top-line winger on one of the hottest teams in the league. Let's get into it.
Underdog NHL Free Picks, Monday, 10/12: NHL DFS Projections
Friday was a good reminder that shots props come down to fine margins. Both of our picks played their usual roles and still came up a single shot short, which is why role and matchup matter as much as recent form. Lineups are still shifting around the league as well, with Buffalo shuffling its forward group after an injury to Josh Doan and Ottawa riding a top line that has carried the offense early.
Fantasy Alarm's NHL DFS Projections are built to account for those changes every night. Our projections cover every player on every slate, so you can see who is set up for shots, points, blocks, and saves before you build a lineup or submit a pick'em entry. Whether you are playing Underdog, DraftKings, or FanDuel, our NHL DFS Projections help you find the spots worth attacking.
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Tage Thompson NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 SOG
Tage Thompson has been the one constant for Buffalo through five games. The Sabres center has cleared 3.5 shots in every game this season, starting with four in Columbus and four against Chicago, then nine against Minnesota and another clean hit against Dallas on Thursday. He followed that up by scoring on six shots in Saturday's loss to Utah.
He also leads the Sabres with three goals and has five points overall. Buffalo has dropped two straight, falling 4-0 to Dallas and 4-1 to Utah, and Thompson scored the only goal in Saturday's loss. When the offense goes cold, the Sabres lean on their top center even more, and that keeps his shot volume high regardless of the score.
His history makes this number comfortable. Thompson put 272 shots on goal last season on his way to 40 goals in 81 games, and he led all NHL forwards in shot attempts of 90 mph or faster, according to NHL EDGE. He has reached 40 goals in three of the last four seasons, and he plays on the top power-play unit, so his chances come in every situation.
Florida visits for the matinee at 2-1-2 with Brady Tkachuk, Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk together on the top line. The Panthers are a high-tempo team that plays fast in both directions, which tends to open up the ice for opposing shooters as well. With Buffalo looking to snap a two-game skid at home, expect the Sabres to push the pace and run their offense through Thompson. We are taking Thompson Higher 3.5 shots on goal.
Drake Batherson NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 1.5 SOG
Drake Batherson is a big part of why Ottawa is off to its best start in 12 years. The Senators are 4-1-0, and Batherson has three goals and four points through five games. He tied Saturday's game against Nashville late in the third period, setting up the Senators' shootout win, and he has been a key finisher on a team that keeps finding ways to win.
His role is as strong as it gets. Batherson skates on the top line with Tim Stutzle and Andre Burakovsky, and he works on the first power-play unit alongside Stutzle, Burakovsky, Dylan Cozens, and Thomas Chabot. Stutzle already has eight points in five games while averaging nearly 22 minutes a night, and Batherson is the primary shooter on his right side.
The track record supports this number too. Batherson set career highs with 33 goals and 71 points last season, putting 167 shots on net across 79 games while averaging a little over 17 minutes of ice time. He also scored 13 power-play goals, so his chances come with the man advantage as well as at even strength. He has posted at least 20 goals and 60 points in four straight seasons, and he once fired 249 shots in a single campaign.
New Jersey enters at 2-2-0, and this game is expected to be tight, with the two teams meeting for the first time this season. Ottawa's top line has carried the offense early, and a line of 1.5 only asks Batherson for two shots while playing top-line and first-unit power-play minutes. We like Batherson Higher 1.5 shots on goal.
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