Monday was a split. Drake Batherson cleared his shot line in New Jersey, while Tage Thompson scored a goal but came up short of 3.5 shots against Florida. Our Underdog NHL Free Picks now sit at 8-4 on individual picks this season and 3-3 on our two-pick pick'em plays.
Tonight is one of the best nights on the hockey calendar. Frozen Frenzy is back for its fourth edition, with all 32 teams in action across 16 games and staggered puck drops every 15 minutes from 6 p.m. ET to 11 p.m. ET. With a full slate to work with, we are going bigger with four picks, mixing two Higher plays on proven shooters with two Lower plays where the matchup and role point the other way.
Underdog NHL Free Picks, Tuesday, 10/13: NHL DFS Projections
A 16-game slate brings more options than any other night of the season, and that makes sorting through roles and matchups even more important. Ice time is a big part of tonight's card. Alex Ovechkin's minutes are still being managed after he missed the preseason, while Zach Werenski is playing close to 30 minutes a night but shooting far less than usual. Those details often matter more than a player's name or reputation.
Fantasy Alarm's NHL DFS Projections cover every player on every slate, including all 32 teams tonight, so you can see who is set up for shots, points, blocks, and saves before you build a lineup or submit a pick'em entry. Whether you are playing Underdog, DraftKings, or FanDuel, our NHL DFS Projections help you find the edges on a night with plenty of them.
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Alex Ovechkin NHL Underdog Pick: Lower 2.5 SOG
Alex Ovechkin is playing his final NHL season, and the Capitals are being careful with him early. The 41-year-old missed the preseason with a lower-body injury, and he has eight shots on goal through five games, an average of 1.6 per night. He is averaging just over 14 minutes of ice time, and he played a career-low 12:46 in the season opener against Carolina, finishing that game with one shot on goal.
He did score his first goal of the season on three shots in Sunday's 5-3 loss to Seattle while logging a season-high 16:56. That is worth noting, but even with that game included, he is averaging well under this number. Washington has a much deeper forward group this season after adding Alex Tuch and Jordan Kyrou, which spreads out the offense and limits how much the Capitals need to lean on their captain.
The matchup also favors the Lower. Carolina is 5-1-1 and allowed fewer than 24 shots per game last season, one of the lowest marks in the league, so shot volume against the Hurricanes is hard to come by for anyone. With Ovechkin's minutes still limited and Carolina's structure in his way, we are taking Ovechkin Lower 2.5 shots on goal at a 1.96x multiplier.
Tage Thompson NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 SOG
We are going right back to Tage Thompson. He came up short on Monday, but he still found the back of the net against Florida, and before that he had cleared 3.5 shots in each of his first five games. That run included four shots in Columbus, four against Chicago, nine against Minnesota and six with a goal against Utah.
Thompson leads the Sabres with four goals, and Buffalo continues to run its offense through him at even strength and on the top power-play unit. He put 272 shots on goal last season on his way to 40 goals, and he led all NHL forwards in shot attempts of 90 mph or faster, according to NHL EDGE. One quiet shot night does not change the profile.
Buffalo is on the second night of a back-to-back after Monday's matinee, but that afternoon start gave the team a full evening to recover before tonight's 6:30 p.m. ET puck drop in Montreal. The Sabres have struggled to score as a team lately and need their best scorer to set the tone. At a 2.09x multiplier, this is the best value on our card, and we like Thompson Higher 3.5 shots on goal.
Kyle Connor NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 SOG
Kyle Connor fell one shot short on Friday, but the bigger picture has not changed. The Jets winger has 27 shots on goal through five games, an average of more than five per night, and he cleared 3.5 in each of his first four games. He also scored again on Friday, his sixth goal of the season and the 329th of his career, moving him past Ilya Kovalchuk into sole possession of third place on the Jets/Atlanta Thrashers all-time list.
Friday's game was an outlier for the whole team. Winnipeg managed only 16 shots in a 5-1 loss to Anaheim, which kept everyone's volume down. Connor still plays on the top line with Mark Scheifele and Cole Perfetti and runs the top power-play unit, and he put 274 shots on net last season while playing all 82 games.
Minnesota comes to Canada Life Centre for an 8:15 p.m. ET puck drop. The Wild allowed nine shots to Tage Thompson earlier this month, so they have already shown they can give up volume to a top shooter. Expect the Jets to bounce back with more pressure at home after their worst offensive showing of the year. We like Connor Higher 3.5 shots on goal at a 1.87x multiplier.
Zach Werenski NHL Underdog Pick: Lower 3.5 SOG
Zach Werenski is one of the best defensemen in hockey, but his early-season shooting tells a different story than his reputation. The Blue Jackets star has eight shots on goal through four games, an average of two per night, despite playing nearly 30 minutes a game. He had just one shot on goal in 28:13 of ice time in his last game.
His production has come as a passer so far. Werenski has four assists and no goals this season, and Columbus is getting its scoring from forwards like Cole Sillinger, who has two goals and four points. Werenski did post 81 points last season and has been a high-volume shooter in the past, which is why this line sits at 3.5, but he has not been near that number this year.
Florida has also been a tough matchup for him. Werenski has just two points in his last 11 games against the Panthers, and Florida's structure tends to limit clean looks from the point. The 6:15 p.m. ET puck drop at Nationwide Arena gets our card started, and we are taking Werenski Lower 3.5 shots on goal at a 1.61x multiplier.
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Frozen Frenzy is the perfect night to get started. New users can sign up with Underdog promo code ALARM to earn over $75 in bonuses. Once your account is set, build your entry with Alex Ovechkin Lower 2.5 shots on goal, Tage Thompson Higher 3.5 shots on goal, Kyle Connor Higher 3.5 shots on goal, and Zach Werenski Lower 3.5 shots on goal.
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