We are rolling. Tage Thompson and Brandon Hagel both cleared their shots on goal lines on Thursday, giving us another 2-0 night. That pushes our Underdog NHL Free Picks to 7-1 on individual picks this season and 3-1 on our two-pick pick'em plays.

Friday's picks come from two games on a busy slate. Pittsburgh visits Columbus at Nationwide Arena at 7 p.m. ET, and Anaheim heads to Canada Life Centre to face Winnipeg at 8 p.m. ET. We are backing a hot second-line center for the Penguins and going back to the most reliable shooter on our card this season. Let's get into it.

Underdog NHL Free Picks, Friday, 10/9: NHL DFS Projections

A week and a half into the season, roles are settling in, and the shot leaders are separating from the pack. Kyle Connor has 24 shots through four games, and Thomas Novak has locked down a top-six center job in Pittsburgh with a spot on the top power-play unit. Usage like that is the foundation of any good shots prop, and it tends to hold up much better than early shooting percentages.

Fantasy Alarm's NHL DFS Projections track those role changes every night. Our projections cover every player on every slate, so you can see who is set up for shots, points, blocks, and saves before you build a lineup or lock in a pick'em entry. Whether you are playing Underdog, DraftKings, or FanDuel, our NHL DFS Projections help you spot the edges before the lines move.

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Thomas Novak NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 1.5 SOG

Thomas Novak is off to the best start of his career. The Penguins center has three goals and two assists through four games, leading the team with five points, which is already the most he has ever had at this point in a season. He scored again on three shots in Wednesday's 5-3 loss to Washington and also blocked two shots in that game.

The role is what makes this line attractive. Novak is centering Pittsburgh's second line between Egor Chinakhov and Evgeni Malkin, and he also works on the top power-play unit. A center playing with Malkin at even strength and getting first-unit power-play time is going to be around the puck a lot, and that creates steady shot opportunities night after night.

Novak has eight shots on goal through four games, an average of two per night, so he is already shooting at a pace that clears this number. The Penguins rewarded him with a three-year contract in July, and he has topped 40 points in three of the previous four seasons. He is a proven top-six contributor, and the early production shows he is fully comfortable in this spot.

The game environment helps as well. Columbus is a modest home favorite with the total sitting at 6.5, which points to a game with plenty of chances at both ends. The Blue Jackets already put six goals on Buffalo in their opener, and Pittsburgh's offense has been one of the most productive groups in the league early on. A line of 1.5 only asks Novak for two shots, and we like Novak Higher 1.5 shots on goal.

Kyle Connor NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 SOG

We are going back to the well with Kyle Connor, and it is easy to see why. The Jets winger has 24 shots on goal through four games, an average of six per night. He opened with nine against Boston, followed by five in Detroit and six in Pittsburgh, and then put four on net against Colorado on Wednesday. He has cleared 3.5 in all four games this season.

Wednesday's game showed just how much Winnipeg leans on him. Connor scored the winning goal with one minute left on a feed from Mark Scheifele, giving the Jets another 3-2 victory and tying Ilya Kovalchuk on the franchise goals list with 328. He now leads the team with four goals, and he continues to skate on the top line with Scheifele and Cole Perfetti while running the top power-play unit.

The bigger picture supports the volume too. Connor put 274 shots on goal last season while playing all 82 games, and he once reached 317 shots in a single season. He has the track record, the role, and the early-season form, and that combination makes 3.5 a very reachable number for him.

Anaheim brings a strong offense into Winnipeg, and the total sits at 6.5 with the Jets as slight home favorites. The Ducks swept all three meetings with the Jets last season, so Winnipeg has some motivation to push the pace, and Anaheim is coming off a 5-2 loss in Edmonton on Wednesday. Expect plenty of offense, and expect Connor to be in the middle of it. We like Connor Higher 3.5 shots on goal.

 

 

 

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