Welcome to our daily Underdog NHL free picks, where we break down top player prop projections for today's slate of games. With the 2025-26 season underway, we're focusing on high-value overs based on recent performance, matchup dynamics, and historical trends. Today's picks feature two volume shooters in strong spots: Tage Thompson of the Buffalo Sabres and Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Sabres host the Washington Capitals at 7 p.m. ET, while the Blue Jackets host the St. Louis Blues at 7 p.m. ET. Let's dive in.

 

 

 

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Tage Thompson Underdog NHL Pick: Higher than 4.5 Shots on Goal

Tage Thompson has averaged 4.0 shots on goal per game this season through 11 appearances, totaling 44 shots. His recent form is strong, with seven shots in Thursday's game against the Bruins. Against the Capitals, who allow 25.55 shots per game this season, Thompson has historically thrived with 10 goals and nine assists in 23 matchups. As Buffalo's top-line and power-play staple with 20+ minutes of ice time, this over looks solid in a home game expected to feature offensive push.

 

 

 

Zach Werenski Underdog NHL Pick: Higher than 2.5 Shots on Goal

Zach Werenski leads defensemen in shot volume, averaging 3.6 shots on goal per game through 10 contests with 36 total shots. He's added three goals and five assists while logging 25+ minutes as Columbus' top-pair and power-play quarterback. The Blues allow 27.27 shots per game, setting up opportunities; Werenski has two goals and six assists in 15 career games vs. St. Louis. With the Blue Jackets on a 5-1 streak in their last six, expect aggressive play from the point, making this 2.5 over achievable.

 

 

 

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