Saturday brings a full day of hockey, and our Underdog NHL Free Picks are going back to two names we know well. We are riding the Alex Ovechkin Lower one more time and backing Alex DeBrincat as he chases a major career milestone.
The action starts early. New Jersey visits Washington at Capital One Arena for a 1 p.m. ET matinee, and San Jose heads to Little Caesars Arena to face Detroit at 7 p.m. ET. One pick leans on a shrinking role, and the other leans on a player who is driving his team's offense. Let's get into it.
Underdog NHL Free Picks, Saturday, 10/17: NHL DFS Projections
Line changes are one of the biggest drivers of prop value, and Washington just made a notable one. Ovechkin is projected to skate on the Capitals' third line for Saturday's matinee, with Alex Tuch, Dylan Strome and Jordan Kyrou on the top line and Tom Wilson and Boone Jenner on the second. Moves like that cut into even-strength minutes, and fewer minutes means fewer chances to shoot.
Fantasy Alarm's NHL DFS Projections adjust for line changes like this every day. Our projections cover every player on every slate, so you can see who is set up for shots, points, blocks and saves before you build a lineup or submit a pick'em entry. Whether you are playing Underdog, DraftKings or FanDuel, our NHL DFS Projections help you react to the news before the lines do.
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Alex Ovechkin NHL Underdog Pick: Lower 2.5 SOG
We are going back to the Ovechkin Lower for a third time, and the case keeps getting stronger. The 41-year-old stayed under 2.5 shots against both Carolina and Montreal this week, and he is averaging fewer than two shots per game through seven contests. He missed the entire preseason with a lower-body injury, and Washington has managed his ice time carefully since the opener.
Saturday's projected lines are the biggest reason we like this play again. Ovechkin is expected to skate on the third line with Ilya Protas and Ivan Miroshnichenko, a clear step down from the top-six role he held for most of his career. Third-line minutes usually mean less offensive-zone time and fewer shifts against tired defenders, which is where Ovechkin has historically done his damage.
He does still play on the top power-play unit with Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome, Ryan Leonard and Jakob Chychrun, so a penalty-heavy game is the main risk here. Even so, the Capitals have a deeper forward group than ever with Tuch and Kyrou leading the way, and they do not need their captain to carry the offense. Ovechkin's three-shot game against Seattle last Sunday came during his heaviest workload of the season, and he is unlikely to see that kind of ice time in this spot.
New Jersey comes in at 4-3-0 after beating the Rangers on Thursday, and both teams are dealing with an early start time that can slow the pace of a game. With Ovechkin's role shrinking and his shot volume already well below this number, we are taking Ovechkin Lower 2.5 shots on goal.
Alex DeBrincat NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 SOG
Alex DeBrincat is the engine of Detroit's offense, and he is two goals away from a big milestone. The Red Wings winger has 298 career goals and needs just two more to become the fourth Michigan native to reach 300 in the NHL, joining Mike Modano, Brian Rolston and Kyle Connor. A player chasing a milestone at home is going to be looking for his shot.
The volume has been there all season. DeBrincat added four more shots in Thursday's win over Philadelphia, giving him 28 shots on goal through seven games, an average of four per night. That includes 17 shots over his last three games alone. He leads Detroit with four goals and eight points and continues to skate on the second line with Emmitt Finnie and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, a group head coach Todd McLellan called the team's best line by a wide margin earlier this week.
His role on the power play adds even more opportunity. DeBrincat works on the top unit with Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Viktor Arvidsson and Moritz Seider, and he signed a seven-year, $91 million extension this week, so there is no question about how much the Red Wings value his scoring. He led Detroit with 41 goals and 85 points last season while playing all 82 games.
San Jose visits at 4-3-0 with a young, aggressive roster led by Macklin Celebrini. Detroit is a slight home favorite and has Daniil Tarasov back in net after he earned a second straight start. With DeBrincat firing at a high rate and chasing 300, we like DeBrincat Higher 3.5 shots on goal.
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