Another clean night in the books. Kyle Connor cleared his shots line with four on net against Colorado, and Connor McDavid went well past his points line with three in Anaheim. That moves our Underdog NHL Free Picks to 5-1 on individual picks this season, and 2-1 on our two-pick pick'em plays.

Thursday's picks come from two 7 p.m. ET puck drops. Minnesota visits Tampa Bay at Benchmark International Arena, and Dallas heads to KeyBank Center to face Buffalo. Both picks are shot volume plays on wingers and centers who are already firing at an elite rate in the first week of the season. Let's get into it.

 

 

 

Underdog NHL Free Picks, Thursday, 10/8: NHL DFS Projections

Shot volume has been the most reliable prop category through the first week, and the leaders are separating themselves early. Brandon Hagel is averaging nearly six shots per game for Tampa Bay, and Tage Thompson just led all players with nine shots in Buffalo's overtime win over Minnesota. Early-season usage tends to stick, especially for top-six forwards who also see power-play time, so these are trends worth following.

That is where Fantasy Alarm's NHL DFS Projections come in. Our projections cover every player on every slate, so you can see who is set up for shots, points, blocks and saves before you build a lineup or lock in a pick'em entry. Whether you are playing Underdog, DraftKings or FanDuel, our NHL DFS Projections help you find the spots where the lines have not caught up yet.

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Brandon Hagel NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 2.5 SOG

Brandon Hagel has been one of the busiest shooters in the league to open the year. The Lightning winger has 17 shots on goal through three games, an average of nearly six per night, and he has cleared tonight's number in each of his last two outings. He put six shots on net with two assists in the 3-1 win over Washington, then fired eight more and scored in the 4-1 win over Philadelphia.

His role is a big reason why. Hagel is averaging just under 22 minutes per game, skating on the second line with Anthony Cirelli and Jake Guentzel, working the second power-play unit and killing penalties on the top unit. A forward who plays in every situation gets more chances to shoot than almost anyone on the ice, and Hagel has been taking full advantage.

The track record backs it up. Hagel scored 36 goals with 38 assists in 71 games last season and averaged 2.7 shots per game, and he has fired 442 shots over the last two seasons combined. He has only one goal to show for his 17 shots so far, so the finishing should start to catch up with the volume, but for this prop all we need is the volume to keep coming.

Minnesota just allowed nine shots to Tage Thompson on Tuesday, and the Wild are still playing without Brock Faber on the blue line. Tampa Bay is a home favorite with the total sitting between 5.5 and six, and the Lightning have won two straight after a lopsided opening loss to the Rangers. We are taking Hagel Higher 2.5 shots on goal.

Tage Thompson NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 SOG

Tage Thompson is coming off one of his best games of the young season. The Sabres center led all players with nine shots on goal in Tuesday's 3-2 overtime win over Minnesota, scoring the tying goal in the third period and assisting on Owen Power's overtime winner. He logged 20:23 of ice time and has now posted two points in back-to-back games. That nine-shot night followed four shots in both Columbus and Chicago, giving him 17 shots through three games, an average of nearly six per night, and he has cleared 3.5 in every game this season.

Volume is simply part of his game. Thompson fired 272 shots on goal last season on his way to 40 goals and 41 assists in 81 games, which works out to roughly 3.4 shots per night. He has reached 40 goals in three of the last four seasons, and he became just the fifth player in Sabres history to hit the 40-goal mark three times.

The underlying numbers show why he gets so many pucks on net. Thompson led all NHL forwards in shot attempts of 90 mph or faster last season, and he ranked fifth in the league in mid-range shots on goal, according to NHL EDGE. He skates on the top line between Josh Norris and Josh Doan, and he plays on the first power-play unit alongside Rasmus Dahlin, so his minutes are as valuable as anyone's on the roster.

Dallas visits as a slight road favorite to open a road trip, and the game is priced close to a coin flip with a total of six. Thompson has had plenty of success against the Stars as well, scoring five goals in his last five games against them. Buffalo is a confident group after back-to-back home wins, and the offense continues to run through its top center. We like Thompson Higher 3.5 shots on goal.

 

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Ready to jump in on Thursday's slate? New users can sign up with Underdog promo code ALARM to earn over $75 in bonuses. Once your account is set, take Brandon Hagel Higher 2.5 shots on goal and Tage Thompson Higher 3.5 shots on goal to build your entry.

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