Tuesday was a split. Dylan Guenther came through on his shots on goal line in New Jersey, while Quinn Hughes fell short in Buffalo. That is the nature of a one-week sample, and we are right back at it with two players who have been as consistent as anyone in the league to open the season.

Our Underdog NHL Free Picks for Wednesday go back to a familiar name and add the best player in the world. Kyle Connor and the Jets host Colorado at Canada Life Centre at 7:30 p.m. ET, and Connor McDavid and the Oilers close the night in Anaheim at 10 p.m. ET. Both players are piling up production in the opening week, and both walk into games with plenty of offense on the board. Let's get into it.

 

 

 

Underdog NHL Free Picks, Wednesday, 10/7: NHL DFS Projections

Injuries are already shaping the early-season landscape. Edmonton is without Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jason Dickinson tonight, which concentrates even more of the offense in the hands of McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard. Winnipeg, meanwhile, continues to run its power play through Connor, who has scored all three of his goals with the man advantage. When a team's usage narrows like that, the top players become even more valuable for props.

Fantasy Alarm's NHL DFS Projections account for those shifts every night. Our projections cover every player on every slate, so you can see who is set up for shots, points, blocks, and saves before you build a lineup or submit a pick'em entry. Whether you are playing Underdog, DraftKings or FanDuel, our NHL DFS Projections help you find the edges before the lines adjust.

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Connor McDavid NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 1.5 Points

Connor McDavid is doing exactly what he did all of last season. The Oilers captain has nine points through three games, with two goals and seven assists, and he is averaging nearly 24 minutes of ice time per night. One of those goals came shorthanded, and he found the net again in Edmonton's 3-1 win over Seattle last time out. He is on pace to make this line look small.

The track record backs it up. McDavid finished 2025-26 with 48 goals, 90 assists and 138 points, leading the Oilers in all three categories. He is a six-time Art Ross Trophy winner, and multi-point nights are a routine part of his game rather than a hot streak. Asking him for two points against a division rival is asking him to play a normal McDavid game.

The Oilers' injuries only increase his share of the offense. With Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins and Dickinson all out, Edmonton is leaning on its top trio harder than ever, and McDavid, Bouchard and Draisaitl have combined for 22 points already. When the supporting cast is this thin, nearly every goal Edmonton scores runs through its captain.

There is extra motivation in this one too. Anaheim knocked Edmonton out of the playoffs last spring, and this is the first chance for the Oilers to answer back. The total sits at 6.5 with the Over juiced, and Edmonton is a road favorite despite the injuries, which points to a game where the Oilers expect to score. We are taking McDavid Higher 1.5 points.

Kyle Connor NHL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 SOG

We are going back to Kyle Connor, and the line has moved up for good reason. The Jets winger opened the season with nine shots against Boston, followed that with five against Detroit and added six more in Monday's 3-2 win in Pittsburgh. That puts him at 20 shots through three games, an average of nearly seven per night, and he has cleared 3.5 in every contest so far.

Connor leads the Jets with three goals and is tied for the team lead with five points. All three of his goals have come on the power play, where he already has more than half of last season's total of five man-advantage goals. Winnipeg is clearly building its attack around him, and he continues to skate on the top line with Mark Scheifele and Cole Perfetti.

His history supports the higher number as well. Connor put 274 shots on goal last season while playing all 82 games, and he once reached 317 shots in his 47-goal campaign in 2021-22. When he is hot, four or more shots in a game is the norm, not a stretch.

Tonight's matchup sets up for volume. Colorado comes in at 2-0-0 and is a sizeable road favorite, with the Jets around +163 on the moneyline, so Winnipeg should spend a good part of this game chasing. Teams that trail lean on their top shooters, and the 6.5 total points to a game with plenty of action at both ends. We like Connor to have 3.5+ shots on goal.

 

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