NFL DFS WR Coach Week 15: Top DraftKings & FanDuel Picks
Published: Dec 17, 2022
Updated: Dec 17, 2022
What an NFL DFS week this will be! Multiple games on Saturday and means it's a weekend full of constructing NFL DFS lineups, and even better, tinkering with them all day! Ah, lineup tinkering, a fantasy football tradition as old as time. There are plenty of good receiver options on Saturday’s slate, headlined by seasonal fantasy All-Stars Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs, and then on Sunday, you can look to Mike Williams and Keenan Allen against a porous Tennessee secondary to anchor your daily fantasy football lineups for Week 15. From studs, to value plays, to mid-tier players, I got it all for you in this week’s DFS WR Coach. Here are my favorite DFS options at wide receiver for your Week 15 NFL DFS lineups, including my top receivers, best value plays, and receiver to fade.
Be sure to check out the rest of the NFL DFS Coaches and DFS Watch List throughout the week!
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Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
He’s expensive, but he’s so damn good. There should be some points scored in this one, especially given how bad Minnesota’s defense has been of late. Indy ranks 27th in DVOA against the opponent’s WR1, and that is most certainly Jefferson. He may not go for 200+ again, but his floor and upside is unparalleled on a small slate like this. Honestly, there isn’t much to say about this guy. He’s good, so you play him.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
You’re going to read about another Indy receiver I like here in a bit, but it starts with Michael Pittman Jr., the alpha receiver for this team. The Vikings have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to receivers over the last four weeks, and for the entire 2022 season, they’ve allowed the most receptions and yards to receivers. Prior to getting just four targets against Dallas prior to the bye, Pittman Jr. had at least six targets in every game, and now gets a Minnesota defense that ranks 27th and 26th in DVOA against the pass and opposition’s WR1 respectively.
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Back in Week 3, Diggs had seven catches on 11 targets for 74 yards against this Miami defense. In four career games against the Dolphins as a member of the Buffalo Bills, here are Diggs’ numbers and fantasy output:
|Week 2 2020|
|Week 17 2020|
|Week 2 2021|
|Week 8 2021|
|Week 3 2022|
The Dolphins rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass, and no one in this secondary has shown me that they can slow down Diggs. Fire up Diggs on Saturday, and don’t look back.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson and DPJ seem to have a little something cooking, no? DPJ could go off in this matchup, as Baltimore ranks 21st in DVOA against the opposition’s WR2, and per Football Outsiders, no team allows more yards per game to the WR2 than Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to wideouts over the last four weeks, and the fourth-most for the season as a whole. In two games with Watson, DPJ has caught 11 of 15 targets for 158 yards.
Isaiah McKenzie, Buffalo Bills
You’re going to have a little bit of salary somewhere, especially if you’re already playing Diggs and Jefferson, so how about McKenzie? He beat the Dolphins for over 76 yards and a touchdown on nine targets back in Week 3, and he’s taken advantage of good matchups. Miami ranks 19th in DVOA against slot receivers, and when you look at players that have had bigger games against the Dolphins, you see quite a few slot receivers, a la Keenan Allen (92 yds.), Kalif Raymond (76 yds.), McKenzie (76 yds.), amongst others.
Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts
After a bit of a midseason slump, Pierce had a big game in the team’s last game before the bye, catching four of eight targets for 86 yards and his second touchdown of the year. The Vikings are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to wideouts over the last four weeks, and Pierce is averaging six targets per game over his last three contests. There’s some volatility here for sure, but it’s a great matchup, and Indy should be throwing the ball, exploiting the weaknesses of this Minnesota defense.
Sunday’s Main Slate
NFL DFS WR Top Plays
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Williams is healthy, and the Titans stink in terms of pass coverage, so we are absolutely going to use Williams everywhere in DFS this week. The Titans rank 28th in DVOA against the pass, 21st against the oppositions’ WR1, and outside of leaving the game against Kansas City early, Williams has at least five receptions in four of his last five games. Tennessee has been incredibly generous to wide receivers of late, and all season, and with their prowess against the run, expect the Chargers to deploy an aerial assault against the Titans, which only stands to benefit Williams.
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
It’s wheels up time for Mr. A.J. Brown! The Bears rank 31st in DVOA against the pass and dead last in terms of covering the opponent’s WR1. There’s no denying that Brown is the alpha of the Philadelphia passing attack, and Brown is going to feast on this lackluster secondary. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 5.3 receptions, 78.3 yards, and 1.3 touchdowns per game, and my favorite thing about Brown on this slate in this matchup is that his combination of a high floor and high ceiling makes him a must play in Week 15.
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
For all the reasons we like Williams, we have to like Allen, too, right? Since returning from injury, Allen has resumed his heavy workload, seeing at least seven targets in his last four games, including two games with 14 targets, and two games with scores. During this four game run, he’s averaging seven receptions on 10.8 targets for 80.8 receiving yards per game. None of these Tennessee corners should scare you, and we’ll get a full on passing attack from Justin Herbert this week.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
The Jaguars rank 30th in DVOA against the pass and 22nd against the WR1, so after a quiet week from Lamb against Houston, I like attacking him in my DFS lineups in Week 15. Lamb is averaging nearly nine targets per game over the last five, not to mention 6.4 receptions and 81 yards per game. Don’t expect a second AFC South team to slow down Lamb.
NFL DFS WR Mid-Price Plays
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When Mike Evans gets his routes against Eli Apple, he’s going to excel. Cincy’s corners are weakest on the outside, which is where Evans spends a good chunk of his time. Evans’ production hasn’t been that great since going for 123 yards against the Ravens back in Week 8, but this game script should be in his favor, and he should have the best matchup on the field for the Tampa Bay offense for the majority of this game. He’s averaging 9.3 targets per game over his last seven contests, and if you give Evans nearly 10 targets against Eli Apple and this Cincy defense, he should be in line for one of his better fantasy outputs of the season.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Regardless of quarterback this year, Chris Olave has produced, and while Atlanta has been better of late, statistically speaking, they still have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. The Falcons rank 29th in DVOA against the pass, 23rd against the opposition’s WR1, and via DraftKings’ scoring, he has double-digit fantasy points in all but two games this year. He’s a threat to score in the red zone, and he gets a steady target share that we can bank on week in and week out.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
No team has allowed more fantasy points per game to receivers over the last four weeks than the Detroit Lions, and if the Lions are going to put up points, so will the Jets. The Lions rank 21st in DVOA against the pass, and Wilson now has at least 78 receiving yards in five of his last six games, including at least five receptions in five of six as well. At this point, it’s hard to fade Wilson, so he’s my cash game play from this New York receiving room. I don't love that the team is starting Zach Wilson, but even when Wilson was under center, the rookie wideout was the only guy that managed to stay relevant in fantasy terms. However, I'm unsure I can trust Wilson in cash games with Zach Wilson under center.
NFL DFS WR Value Plays
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kansas City Chiefs
Houston’s cornerbacks have overachieved this year for the most part, but Tavierre Thomas has been underwhelming compared to what he did last year. Valdes-Scantling will also see some Desmond King, who won’t be able to keep up with him, and with Houston ranking just 27th in DVOA against the deep ball, this seems like the week that MVS puts up his 3-83-1 game. Game script could, and likely will be an issue in this one, but if you want a Kansas City receiver, I like MVS’ upside the most.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
Desmond Ridder’s debut will likely see plenty of handoffs, but when he does throw it, London should eat up these New Orleans corners. The Saints have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers over the last four weeks, and Ridder can make the throws when asked. London will serve as the top dog in the passing attack, and maybe with Ridder at the helm, that will actually mean something for DFS purposes.
Quez Watkins, Philadelphia Eagles
Alright, here we go. This feels like a week where Watkins is hauling in a 40+ yard touchdown pass. Why, you may ask? Well, Chicago ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass, and more particularly, 29th in DVOA on deep passes, which Football Outsiders considers to be passes of 16+ yards downfield. In the past three years with the Eagles, he’s caught five touchdown passes, which were the following distances: 32, 36, 53, 22, and 30. He’s a big play waiting to happen, and Jalen Hurts will connect with Watkins on a long score in this one.
NFL DFS WR Dart Throw
Terrace Marshall, Carolina Panthers
We’ll see about D.J. Moore’s status, but why not throw a dart at Marshall if Moore is out or limited in any manner? The Steelers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers this season, and Marshall is typically good for a handful of targets each week. He’s been quiet over the last two games, but from Weeks 8-11, he was averaging 64.8 yards and 5.8 targets per game. If Moore is out, Marshall might become rather chalky, so keep an eye out for that.
NFL DFS WR Fades
Chris Moore, Houston Texans
Keep an eye out for Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins’ availability, first and foremost. From there, playing Moore seems a bit like chasing points from the week prior. Kansas City hasn’t been great against receivers of late, but Houston just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with them offensively. Sure, the game script could be good, but expecting another big day from Moore at a value price tag seems like playing with fire on the slate. If Cooks or Collins returns, Moore is even more of a fade in Week 15.
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