WEEK 1 BABY! We made it! By taking a look at projected game and team totals, as well as our NFL DFS Week 1 projections, we’ll get a good look at how we can best optimize the wide receiver position in our NFL DFS lineups. From superstar receivers to top DFS stacks, the NFL DFS WR Coach will have multiple plays at various pricing tiers to help construct your lineups. Without further ado, let’s dive into the top guys, value plays, and a top fade at the wide receiver position for your Week 1 daily fantasy football lineups.
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NFL DFS WR Top Tier Picks
He’s matchup proof, so don’t overthink it. Tampa Bay could start Christian Izien in the slot, and he allowed a 118.8 passer rating when targeted this preseason, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Minnesota moves him all around the field, so they’ll get him in advantageous positions, and if Tampa Bay remains stout against the run, and Baker Mayfield can keep this game semi-close, Kirk Cousins and Co. are going to have a field day through the air. This is also why Jordan Addison is an intriguing play, especially if he gets more reps out of the slot than he did this preseason.
Should we really be afraid of this Cleveland secondary? Denzel Ward seems like a bigger name than actual producer if anything, and Joe Burrow is going to be out there. So, how can we not like Chase? He’s an expensive option, for sure, but he’s one of just a handful of receivers that can break a slate. In a divisional showdown right away in Week 1, the Bengals will look to come out firing, and that will mean a heavy dosage of Chase against Cleveland.
The beautiful thing about this Dolphins offense is that they are going to throw it a ton, and they have a pretty concentrated target tree, in that Hill and Waddle garner most of the targets, and the rest of the dudes are left fighting for scraps. You can run on the Chargers, but the Dolphins have been telling us over and over and over and over that they aren’t content – or confident perhaps – in their running back situation. This is the only game on the slate with a total of 50+ points for the line, and the new offensive regime in Los Angeles should feast on a Jalen Ramsey-less Miami secondary. Points will be scored in this one, Tyreek Hill wants 2,000 yards this season, and a 100+ yard effort will be a grand step in that direction.
This Rams defense is not going to be good, but interestingly enough, the offense should be good enough to put up a good number of points, which makes for perfect conditions for shootouts. Could we see a 34-23 game here? Even without Cooper Kupp, I think so. If that’s the case, Metcalf is going to feast on this porous secondary. In two games last year against the Rams, he caught 11 of 16 targets for 167 yards and one touchdown. I like Seattle to put up a good number of points in this game, and Metcalf’s blend of size and speed will wreak havoc on this secondary that figures to be quite generous in 2023.
NFL DFS WR Mid-Tier Picks
Right from Week 1, Olave will assert him as the alpha in New Orleans. Yes, Michael Thomas will be involved, but this is Olave’s team now. No team allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing receivers than the Tennessee Titans, and I don’t believe its secondary has gotten any better. Olave will move all around the formation, and none of Tennessee’s corners really stand a chance. This Tennessee secondary is one I expect to pick on a lot this season, and it starts Week 1 with Olave. In GPPs, I’d take a chance with Rashid Shaheed as well, as his speed and 2.59 yards per route run last year is enticing against a weaker Tennessee secondary.
We want the Colts to put up some points in this game, which I think they can do against Jacksonville’s defense. If Indy keeps this game close, an aerial assault led by Trevor Lawrence seems to benefit the new WR1 in town, Calvin Ridley. Lawrence completed 86.5 percent of his passes in two games against Indianapolis last year, and that sort of efficiency should lend itself to big results. If you like the story lines, it’s Ridley’s first game since being suspended for gambling, as well as his first game with his new club in an AFC South showdown.
The Commanders shouldn’t need much to beat Arizona, since the Cardinals are arguably the worst team in the National Football League. He had an impressive preseason, where the rapport with Sam Howell was clearly evident. He’ll move around the formation a bit, and Howell is clearly comfortable with peppering him with targets. On DraftKings, where you get a full point per reception, his $5,000 price tag makes him a near lock in all lineups, especially cash games.
I talk about it with Marvin Mims below, but simply put, this Las Vegas secondary is not good. I have a fear that Denver’s defense stymies Jimmy Garoppolo, but in Sean Payton’s first game, he should be on a mission to right the ship with Russell Wilson, and allow him to put forth a big game, just to give one last final tip of the cap to Nathaniel Hackett. Sutton is a big-bodied receiver who can make tough catches, and he should effectively serve as the unquestioned WR1 in this matchup, especially with Jeudy not being 100% healthy (or inactive). Sutton had a down year last season, but interestingly enough, three of his six highest scoring games in fantasy last year came against the Las Vegas Raiders.
NFL DFS WR Value Picks
On DraftKings, he’s the Cleveland wide receiver to play. He’s $2,000 cheaper than Amari Cooper, compared to just $1,000 cheaper than Cooper on FanDuel. Furthermore, while he costs 9.5 percent of your budget on FanDuel, he costs just 7.6 percent on DraftKings! The value you get with him on DraftKings is crazy, and in a game where Cincy is going to put points on the board, Cleveland will need to let Deshaun Watson air it out a bit. Moore is a shifty guy who should see a good bit of Mike Hilton in slot coverage, but if they do move him around, like I think they will, he’ll feast on Cincinnati’s boundary corners.
Just $3,000 on DraftKings!? Regardless of Jeudy’s status, Mims is in play, as the Las Vegas corners outside of Nate Hobbs aren’t particularly worrisome. Marcus Peters can’t keep up with Mims’ speed, and Jakorian Bennett is a fellow rookie playing one of the hardest positions in football. Mims averaged nearly 20 yards per reception in the preseason, posting respectable marks of 2.27 yards per route run and an aDOT of 16.8 yards, per Pro Football Focus. The upside is there for Mims, and his ownership will skyrocket if/when Jerry Jeudy is confirmed out for Week 1.
Let’s face it, Cooper Kupp isn’t playing in Week 1, so a receiver needs to step up. I expect Van Jefferson to see more of Tariq Woolen then the other receivers, so Nacua is a guy I’m looking to in Week 1 as a dart throw receiver. He had a couple of grabs in the preseason, and the team said they expect him to be an immediate producer. After two solid years at BYU, he could be in line for an expanded role in Week 1, which will almost surely feature his team playing from behind.
NFL DFS WR Fades
A high-profile, productive receiver as my fade for Week 1? You betcha! Sure, Adams went for 100+ yards in each game against Denver last season, but can we trust Jimmy Garoppolo against a pretty stout Denver defense, especially with Patrick Surtain lurking in the secondary? From a price perspective, I don’t think it’s worth it, and there are far better options at a similar price point. I expect Adams to be a bit contrarian, so maybe he gives you some leverage with differentiation in your lineup, but Adams is an easy fade in cash games for me.