It’s NFL Week 11 folks. Some teams are dust, some are clinging to life, and others are cruising. It’s getting pretty serious regardless so we are going to do a more in depth look at each viable tight end option. Then next week we are going to get even deeper into playoff schedules and plans for those who have things locked up. No stone unturned.

 


We switched to linear rankings last week but, if you have deep benches or the rest of your team is awesome so you can afford to hold two tight ends, here is the full write-up on how the Yin & Yang strategy works. The short and sweet is that, if you don’t have an elite tight end, you should roster two: the safest possible play (Yin) to start each week and the highest upside bench stash (Yang) to see if we can catch lightning in a bottle. The rest of us are going to focus on winning now and only planning for bye weeks. The rankings themselves are based on years of research we have done on the position which is all compiled into this one article on What Makes An Elite Tight End.
 

*Orange players have potentially injury issues

 Tight End
TierRest of Season
1Travis Kelce
Mark Andrews
2TJ Hockenson
Dallas Goedert
3George Kittle
David Njoku
Pat Freiermuth
Dalton Schultz
4Kyle Pitts
Greg Dulcich
Evan Engram
Cole Kmet
Tyler Higbee
Trey McBride
5Foster MoreauDarren Waller
Gerald EverettTre' McKitty
Juwan Johnson
6Dawson Knox
Hayden Hurst
Robert Tonyan
Logan Thomas
Tyler Conklin
Mike Gesicki
7Taysom Hill
8Cameron Brate
Hunter Henry
Daniel Bellinger
Noah Fant
Jordan Akins
James Mitchell
 Handcuffs
 Isaiah Likely
 Cade Otton
 Jonnu Smith
 Will Dissly
 Noah Gray


Tier 1: Mega Stars

 

Tier 2: Locked In

  • T.J. Hockenson and Dallas Goedert - The talent is there. The usage is there (despite a slight down week in terms of targets, Goedert still played every single snap). The question is about target distribution on a weekly basis. Each team has a clear top dog in Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown. We like the battle of Hockenson vs. Thielen a little more than Goedert vs. DeVonta Smith which is why Hock gets the slight edge in the ranks but it’s close. Only other knock on Goedert is a low aDOT but he runs a lot of screens and his high YAC/target help make up for that (third among all tight ends).

UPDATE: Annnd Dallas Goedert has been moved to IR with a shoulder injury. We really cannot have nice things. 

 

Tier 3: Feeling Alright

  • George Kittle - Like Hock and Goedert, the talent and usage are good here (in terms of snaps and routes run at least). But, unlike those two, we can’t really count on the team/QB to distribute the football. Kittle is still a “start ‘em if you got ’em” played but he’s no longer locked in if you have better options or even better weekly matchups. And you might want to cash out on the name value if you do have other options. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and now Christian McCaffrey is a lot of competition and they aren’t really getting the ball either somehow.
  • David Njoku - There are two variables here but one could be a positive. The injury concerns are an obvious negative. The other variable is Deshaun Watson being “back for the first time”. It could be a great thing if Njoku remains a top two target and gets a QB upgrade or Watson could favor the WRs and maybe it’s not so amazing. But this player could fly up the rankings if he gets healthy and they are on the same page.
  • Pat Freiermuth - Don’t let this week dissuade you on the player - the Saints are by far the best defense vs. the tight end but the Steelers still tried to get Freiermuth the ball seven times. We didn’t like him early on because of target competition but, after the Claypool trade, the targets are highly consolidated.
  • Dalton Schultz - Dalton Schultz is the definition of “safe”. He’s not going to wow you with YAC or broken tackles (he has 1) but Dak Prescott likes him and that’s what matters. Michael Gallup isn’t really soaking up targets since returning and Noah Brown is Noah Brown so you have to feel good about Dalton Schultz even if he isn’t an “elite” option. 

 

 

 

Tier 4: Upside Is There

  • Kyle Pitts - We know what we have here. The guy is a freak athlete. He and Drake London are the clear top options (both played 55-56 snaps and ran 35-36 routes out of 39 this week). The targets are even there. Every once in awhile he catches some. There is a real possibility this guy blows up for 100+ yard games in better conditions. But there’s also a chance he catches one pass in any given game. And we know that.
  • Greg Dulcich - We wrote in last week’s Tight End DFS Coach article why we didn’t like Greg Dulcich in that matchup. And Reddit was very upset about his weekly ranking. But that doesn’t mean we don’t like the player - just that the Titans were a tougher TE matchup than folks thought and the Vegas over/under of 36.5 points was not exciting (and it also turned out to be generous as only 27 points were scored). But Dulcich has good usage, he runs high aDOT routes, and now Jerry Jeudy is banged up. The Raiders, Cardinalss, and Chiefs are good matchups for tight ends and Dulcich sees those teams in four of the games here.
  • Evan Engram - When healthy, Engram has been solid. Good route participation, solid target share, he’s even top-five in end zone targets (though he’s only caught one). The problem right now is health. He tweaked his back in Week 9 and then once again left the game briefly in Week 10, making him hard to trust, despite a good schedule. He too has a great schedule rest of season and has the bye week here to rest up. If folks drop him for his bye, add him to the watch list at the very least.
  • Cole Kmet - Folks were upset with us early in the season for ranking him “too high”. The usage was good in terms of him playing every snap and running every route but the production was not because they weren’t throwing. Then lately folks were mad at us for not moving him higher after he caught some touchdowns but, over the last two games, he blocked on 8-9 pass plays which is 20-25% (well above the 15% limit we discussed in the Tight End Manifesto). Well, now the team is actually throwing the ball AND he only pass blocked on three pass plays (ran 77% of the routes) so we are fully back on board with Kmet. If he didn’t have that terrible usage stretch in the middle there, we never would have left because this is the upside we dreamed of all off-season.
  • Tyler Higbee - Tyler Higbee gets moved up because it sounds like this Cooper Kupp ankle injury is bad. But be careful with this player - sometimes they ask him to stay in and block for huge chunks of the game. He also has an insanely low aDot at just over three yards which is why he’s not going much higher than this despite the injury to Kupp. Last week he had the second best tight end matchup and this week he had the very worst. If you can pair him with another guy and play matchups, that’s the way to go.
  • Trey McBride - Zach Ertz got hurt unfortunately but McBride seemed to step directly into his role, playing a ton of snaps and running a ton of routes. He might not be as polished as Ertz as a rookie but that usage presents interesting upside. The long term problem for McBride is the same as it was for Ertz of course - the pending return of Marquise Brown. But for now he’s an interesting add - especially if you lost Ertz.

 

Tier 5: Yikes

  • Foster Moreau/Darren Waller - Waller is on IR for the next three games but is expected back. Foster Moreau is an interesting start for the next two weeks vs. Denver and Seattle but the schedule to end the season is rough for a tight end with teams like the Chargers, Rams, and 49ers (fantasy championship). This week we liked Moreau and had him in the DFS article but he’s not the long term solution for you since Hunter Renfrow is expected back too. So, if you are going to roll Moreau out there in the short term, I implore you to roster another upside option at tight end if you can afford the bench spot.
  • Gerald Everett - Even with one or even two wide receivers hurt, Gerald Everett has only played more than 70% of the snaps one time. He was never an elite option long term. And now he has a tweaked groin. He’ll always be an option whenever Keenan Allen and/or Mike Williams are out but there are better options. And, if he’s out, you can try taking Tre’ McKitty for a spin but that’s more of a DFS play than something you want to roll the dice on in a real league.
  • Juwan Johnson - He’s a converted wide receiver who plays tight end but still lines up at wide receiver a bunch. That’s what we like. But Jarvis Landry is back and, even if Michael Thomas is unlikely to return, Landry, Chris Olave, Tand Alvin Kamara is still a lot of target competition. That said, he’s clearly a threat to find the end zone so you could do worse.

 

Tier 6: Resounding “Meh”

  • Dawson Knox - Knox is in a high-powered offense and he typically runs more routes than the slot guys, which is nice. But he’s also the clear third target on the team behind Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis which caps his upside. Now his quarterback clearly has a hurt elbow. Use him if you must but hard to feel good about it.
  • Hayden Hurst - When you defend Hayden Hurst, you find yourself saying “at least” a lot. “At least”, he plays a lot of snaps. “At least” the team throws a lot. “At least Ja’Marr Chase is out”. But, at the end of the day, he’s really not all that special of an option. And, at the end of the season when it matters most, he will be competing with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon for targets. So, if you are going to use him while Chase is out, you should at least use another bench spot on an upside play.
  • Robert Tonyan - Been saying this for weeks so not sure what else to say. This guy doesn’t play the whole game. Not even close. He ran 15 routes this week.
  • Logan Thomas - What we always liked about Logan Thomas was that he played all the snaps, ran all the routes, and was a focal point of the offense. He’s clearly not doing that right now so we can’t trust him unless his usage changes.
  • Tyler Conklin - Tyler Conklin could be an interesting spot start under the right circumstances - Corey Davis remains out, Elijah Moore remains a crybaby, and it’s a good matchup. But this is the exact kind of guy that burns you and he does it a number of ways. Sometimes he stays in to block a lot. Sometimes he’s low aDOT And twice, he’s played fewer snaps than CJ Uzomah. He has one missed tackle this year. In fact, he’s been in the league five years now and has broken four tackles. That’s why he’s in the “meh” tier.
  • Mike Gesicki - This guy basically just rotates at the slot with Trent Sherfield while Durham Smythe plays in-line tight end. Not sure who thinks that’s a good option for fantasy. He ran a route on 60% of the dropbacks this week.

 

Tier 7 : Taysom Hill

  • Taysom Hill - In case of emergency, break the glass. We all know how good it can be. And how bad it can be.

 

Tier 8: Players That I’m Not Starting In Any Of My Leagues But You Can Start In Yours

Like the last tier, the title makes it pretty clear. 

 

Tight End Handcuffs 

Trey McBride, Foster Moreau, and Tre’ McKitty are all mentioned above. From this group, we know that Isaiah Likely and Cade Otton would become viable starters right away if the starter were OUT. We suspect Noah Gray would be as well but we’ve never seen it. The others would not be automatic plug and play options. 

 

Weekly Rankings

Follow Andrew Cooper on Twitter @CoopAFiasco to see the weekly rankings once they are available later this week!


 

 

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