Welcome to the DFS Watch List for NFL Week 14!

What a week we just had, right? While the Playbook was absolute fire, the pay-lines were higher this week than most as the chalk hit everywhere. We had an overabundance of running back options who all hit, from Jonathan Taylor all the way down to Sony Michel and that, coupled with an array of wide receivers, from Justin Jefferson down to Van Jefferson, crushing it as well. there were a lot of competitive obstacles to overcome. 

For GPP contests, you really needed to hit the nuts to win the big money and that can extremely difficult when all the chalk hits, but you can still make great money with the cash games if you're being smart about building low-risk, zero-fat lineups with high-floor players. Most of the lineup trains we see are built out of expected ownership, in an effort to keep pace with the rest of the field. The optimizers spit out the same plays to everyone and they bank on some chalk missing as opposed to using players the rest of the field isn't on. For example, I didn't see a whole lot of Justin Herbert or Keenan Allen out there in the trains. My analysis had them popping this week and while I wasn't alone, my lineups cruised with their production. 

I did see plenty of trains squeezing in Jonathan Taylor and that was another reason we did so well. Yes, I built example lineups to show how you can fit Taylor and strong plays in as well, but I also showed you how to fade Taylor and still put out a fantastic, winning cash lineup. Guys like Elijah Mitchell, James Conner and Antonio Gibson all produced and still allowed you to go after some high-end wideouts.

The trains are going to try and give us trouble each week, but strong analysis will win out more often than not as they're banking on computerized projections rather than a true understanding of the game and match-ups. And as a result, we're able to continue winning in cash games. Playing and winning in cash games is how you save and build your bankroll. I always enter enough cash games so that my winnings there cover any potential GPP losses. So even if you lose your GPP tournaments, your cash winnings maintain your bankroll. Then once you bink a GPP, it's all gravy. 

So what exactly did last week's Playbook deliver? As always, we like to check in to ensure we remain on the right path.

Scoring The Playbook Week 13

Excellence across the board is the theme of the Playbook & Dart Board for Week 13.  The Dart Board dominated too.  Each position had many in the top 10.  The highest scoring lineup would have won the Millionaire Maker on Draft Kings by more than 16 points with a whopping 258.7 points.

Here are some more highlights:

  • Quarterbacks in the Playbook averaged 24.2 points or 3.6X Value including having 5 of the top 6.  All 6 quarterbacks in the Playbook had over 2X Value
  • Tight ends in the Playbook averaged 20.5 points or 4.2X Value including having 4 of the top 5 scorers at the position. This is the largest numbers at tight end in Playbook history.
  • Wide receivers in the Playbook averaged 21 points or 3.1X Value including having the top three at the position.
  • 29 of the 38 players in the Playbook returned 2X+ Value with 22 returning 3X Value, that is 58%
  • The highest total DraftKings lineup created from the players in the Playbook was 258.7 points.

For any newcomers this week:

“If you give a man a fish, he’ll eat for a day. If you teach a man to fish, he’ll eat for a lifetime.”

We take this adage to heart when it comes to playing NFL DFS. The Fantasy Alarm Playbook isn’t just about handing you a list of players and a lineup to use each week. It is designed to help you learn to be a better DFS player. It’s about teaching you the process used in selecting which players to scout and, eventually, which ones to use.

Therefore, we will begin each week with the Weekly NFL DFS Watch List which is designed to keep tabs on marquee names, chalk plays and, of course, the weekly bargains who may not see the same coverage and exposure. This piece will be continuously updated throughout the week, based on the most recent news and injuries which means you may see a name or two removed as we get closer to kick-off. You may also see a few late-week additions who pique our interest for some reason too, and by the end of the week, this Watch List will eventually become your Playbook. Again, it’s about teaching you the process.

Also remember, the DFS Watch List focuses on the Sunday Main Slate. We cover Thursday, Monday and Sunday Night Football via Showdown slate coverage.

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