Thursday night, with Jacksonville a roughly 9.5-point favorite and the total near 40. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 9 matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.
Jaguars vs. Ravens: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Trevor Lawrence has thrown seven touchdowns over his last two games, and Baltimore ranks 29th in DVOA against tight ends. On the other side, rookie Joe Fagnano makes his first start against a defense tied for the NFL's best turnover margin. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this matchup.
Best Underdog NFL Picks for TNF, Week 9
Trevor Lawrence NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 1.5 Passing TDs
Lawrence enters the game having thrown seven touchdowns in his last two outings, and he has 17 on the year, including four games with at least three touchdown passes. The Jaguars do not throw much, with Lawrence below 30 attempts in five games, but he is lethal when he does, with 15.0 yards per attempt last week and three touchdowns on 14 throws. Baltimore ranks 28th in DVOA against WR2 and 29th against tight ends and leans on zone coverage, and a short week for a rookie quarterback should hand Lawrence extra possessions. Clearing 1.5 touchdown passes looks very doable.
Joe Fagnano NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 1.5 Interceptions
Fagnano makes his first career start on a short week after a rough NFL debut in which he went 10-of-21 for 91 yards with an interception and a lost fumble behind a line that allowed four sacks and 12 hits. Jacksonville shares the league's best turnover margin at plus-7, ranks fourth in overall defensive DVOA, and took the ball away three times against Indianapolis, two of them interceptions. The Ravens have scored an average of 11 points over their last three games and are about 9.5-point underdogs, a script that should force the rookie to throw. Two interceptions is a lot for one game, but a rookie quarterback with an ankle injury against a defense this good at taking the ball away makes Higher 1.5 an interesting play.
Underdog NFL Player Projections for Jaguars vs. Ravens
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Lawrence and Fagnano as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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