Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? Thursday Night Football brings the 3-2 Seahawks to Denver to face the 3-2 Broncos, with Seattle a small road favorite and a total of roughly 41. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 6 matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.
Seahawks vs. Broncos: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Emanuel Wilson has taken over as Seattle's lead back with Jadarian Price on injured reserve and Zach Charbonnet unlikely to be activated, while RJ Harvey is looking to bounce back as Denver's passing-down back after a quiet Week 5. Both teams have struggled to move the ball consistently, which should put a premium on volume. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this one.
Best Underdog NFL Picks for TNF, Week 6
RJ Harvey NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 Receptions
Harvey caught four, six, and 10 passes in the three games he played before last week, with 20 receptions in all, and his role as Denver's passing-down back has made him one of the league's most efficient receiving backs. Week 5 was an outlier, with one target and no catches in Payton's first game calling plays, but that came in a game where Denver's defense carried the day, and the Broncos are home underdogs against a Seattle team favored by about three. He may need Denver to be playing from behind to see his earlier volume, but the target share that earned him 20 catches in three games should return. Clearing 3.5 receptions is a rebound bet on his earlier usage.
Emanuel Wilson NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 59.5 Rushing Yards
Wilson has stepped into the lead role in Seattle's backfield, carrying 21, 21, and 20 times in three of his last four games and running for 92, 81, and 61 yards in those outings. Price is on injured reserve, Charbonnet is not expected back this week according to Macdonald, and Holani has managed 77 yards on 26 carries all year, so Wilson should again handle most of the early-down work. He fumbled last week, and the backfield was inefficient at 2.8 yards per carry, but Seattle is favored by about three points, which should keep the ground game in the plan. A 20-carry workload would put 59.5 yards right in range.
Underdog NFL Player Projections for Seahawks vs. Broncos
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Harvey and Wilson as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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