Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today? Thursday Night Football brings the 0-4 Buccaneers to Dallas to face the 2-2 Cowboys, an 8.5-point home favorite with the total set at 47.5. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this Week 5 matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: Game Outlook & Key Matchups

Dallas has faced a double-digit deficit in three of its first four games, but this time it is the one expected to control the game, which should open the door for plenty of work for Javonte Williams. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has leaned on Chris Godwin for short, safe completions in rookie Jalon Daniels' first start, and Dallas ranks last in the league in yards allowed per play. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this one.

 

 

 

Best Underdog NFL Picks for TNF, Week 5

Javonte Williams NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 17.5 Rushing Attempts

Williams has been the clear lead back in Dallas, carrying 62 times through four games with no other Cowboys running back above nine, and he has handled 19 carries in each of the last two weeks after 24 across the first two. He ran for 98 yards and a score against Baltimore and then scored three touchdowns on 19 carries against Houston. The Cowboys are 8.5-point home favorites against a winless Tampa Bay team, which sets up a game where they can lean on the ground, and a lead gives Williams the late-game carries that kill the clock. Even with the Bucs ranking third against the run, a lead back in that kind of script should reach 18 carries.

Chris Godwin NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 3.5 Receptions

Godwin was the clear top target for Daniels in the rookie's first career start, leading Tampa Bay with seven targets and six catches, both season highs, while the offense leaned on short and intermediate routes. He has 16 catches on 19 targets through four games, with the yardage staying modest at 142 and no touchdowns, which makes this a volume bet rather than a big-play bet. Daniels showed a clear comfort level looking his way, and Dallas ranks last in the NFL in yards allowed per play, so the targets should be there again. A receiver who just handled that kind of target share clearing 3.5 receptions looks like the right side.

Underdog NFL Player Projections for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys

Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Williams and Godwin as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.

 

 

 

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